Avery, Christopher2021-12-012021-11Avery, Christopher. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination." HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-030, November 2021.https://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37370346This paper analyzes a simple model of infectious disease where the incentives for individuals to reduce risks through endogenous social distancing take straightforward cost-benefit form. Since disease is transmitted through social interactions, the threat of spread of infection poses a collective action problem. Policy interventions such as lockdowns, testing, and mask-wearing serve, in part, as substitutes for social distancing. Provision of a vaccination is the only intervention that unambiguously reduces both the peak infection level and the herd immunity level of infection. Adoption of vaccination remains limited in a decentralized equilibrium, with resulting reproductive rate of disease Rt > 1 at the conclusion of vaccination. Vaccine mandates yield increases in vaccination rates and corresponding reductions in future infection rates but do not increase expected payoffs to individuals.en-USResearch Paper or Report2021-12-01