Brown, JenniferMinor, Dylan Blu2015-09-292014Brown, Jennifer, and Dylan B. Minor. "Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments." Management Science 60, no. 12 (December 2014): 3087–3102.http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:22836591We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect—the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage; and (2) an effort spillover effect—previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have already been priced into betting markets.en-USelimination tournamentdynamic contestcontest designeffort choicebetting marketsJournal Article2015-09-2910.1287/mnsc.2014.2014