Poveda, AlaitzKoivula, Robert W.Ahmad, ShafqatBarroso, InêsHallmans, GöranJohansson, IngegerdRenström, FridaFranks, Paul2016-03-012015Poveda, Alaitz, Robert W. Koivula, Shafqat Ahmad, Inês Barroso, Göran Hallmans, Ingegerd Johansson, Frida Renström, and Paul W. Franks. 2015. “Innate biology versus lifestyle behaviour in the aetiology of obesity and type 2 diabetes: the GLACIER Study.” Diabetologia 59 (1): 462-471. doi:10.1007/s00125-015-3818-y. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00125-015-3818-y.0012-186Xhttp://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:25658475Aims/hypothesis We compared the ability of genetic (established type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose, 2 h glucose and obesity variants) and modifiable lifestyle (diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol and education) risk factors to predict incident type 2 diabetes and obesity in a population-based prospective cohort of 3,444 Swedish adults studied sequentially at baseline and 10 years later. Methods: Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the predictive ability of genetic and lifestyle risk factors on incident obesity and type 2 diabetes by calculating the AUC. Results: The predictive accuracy of lifestyle risk factors was similar to that yielded by genetic information for incident type 2 diabetes (AUC 75% and 74%, respectively) and obesity (AUC 68% and 73%, respectively) in models adjusted for age, age2 and sex. The addition of genetic information to the lifestyle model significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes (AUC 80%; p = 0.0003) and obesity (AUC 79%; p < 0.0001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 58% for type 2 diabetes and 64% for obesity. Conclusions/interpretation These findings illustrate that lifestyle and genetic information separately provide a similarly high degree of long-range predictive accuracy for obesity and type 2 diabetes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-015-3818-y) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.en-USEnvironmentGenesObesityPredictorsType 2 diabetesJournal Article2016-03-0110.1007/s00125-015-3818-y