Bloom, DavidCanning, DavidFink, GuntherFinlay, Jocelyn2017-08-092009Bloom, David E., David Canning, Günther Fink, and Jocelyn E. Finlay. 2009. The cost of low fertility in Europe. European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie 26, no. 2: 141–158. doi:10.1007/s10680-009-9182-1.1572-9885http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:33730185We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.en-USfertilitypopulation dynamicseconomic growthJournal Article2017-08-0910.3386/w14820