Browsing by Author "Bas, Muhammet Ali"

Now showing items 1-10 of 10

    • Adverse selection and growth under IMF programs 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali; Stone, Randall W. (Springer Science + Business Media, 2013)
      The dominant approach to studying the effects of IMF programs has emphasized moral hazard, but we find that adverse selection has more impressive effects. We propose a novel strategic selection model to study the growth ...

    • Arms Diffusion and War 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali; Coe, A. J. (SAGE Publications, 2012)
      The authors present a model of the relationship between the spread of new military technologies and the occurrence of war. A new technology could shift the balance of power, causing anticipatory war as one side tries to ...

    • Certainty and War 

      Schub, Robert Jay (2016-05-11)
      Does greater certainty about an adversary’s attributes cause peace? What states believe they can secure through force dictates the diplomatic settlements they will accept. In prevailing accounts which preclude assessment ...

    • Democratic Inefficiency? Regime Type and Suboptimal Choices in International Politics 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali (SAGE Publications, 2012)
      This article examines the relationship between regime type and decision makers’ tendency to make suboptimal choices in international crises. To test hypotheses on the optimality of democratic foreign policy, the author ...

    • A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali; Coe, Andrew J. (Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2016)
      We develop a formal model of bargaining between two states where one can invest in a program to develop nuclear weapons and the other imperfectly observes its efforts and progress over time. In the absence of a nonproliferation ...

    • How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali; Schub, Robert Jay (SAGE Publications, 2014)
      In canonical accounts of war, conflict outcomes are inherently uncertain. Contesting literatures posit that this uncertainty, arising from stochastic elements of the war-fighting process, may induce conflict due to greater ...

    • Knowing one's future preferences: A correlated agent model with Bayesian updating 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali; Signorino, C. S.; Whang, T. (SAGE Publications, 2013)
      We generalize two classes of statistical sequential incomplete information games: (1) those resembling typical signaling games, in which a single agent represents each player, allowing for information to be revealed about ...

    • Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali (SAGE Publications, 2012)
      Actor-level variations in the amounts of uncertainty have been widely ignored in the growing literature on statistical models of strategic interaction in international relations. In this article, I provide a tool for testing ...

    • Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali; Schub, Robert (Oxford University Press (OUP), 2016)
      A prominent theory in International Relations posits that mutual optimism, due to two sides holding divergent estimates of their relative bargaining power, causes interstate conflict. This paper develops a theory of mutual ...

    • Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models 

      Bas, Muhammet Ali (University of Michigan Press, 2008)
      We present a simple method for estimating regressions based on recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which can be implemented in most standard statistical packages, involves sequentially estimating standard logits ...