DIGITAL ACCESS TO
Scholarship at Harvard
WHAT IS DASH?
DASH is the central, open-access institutional repository of research by members of the Harvard community. Harvard Library Open Scholarship and Research Data Services (OSRDS) operates DASH to provide the broadest possible access to Harvard's scholarship. This repository hosts a wide range of Harvard-affiliated scholarly works, including pre- and post-refereed journal articles, conference proceedings, theses and dissertations, working papers, and reports.
More about DASH
Recent Submissions
The point of subjective equality as a tool for accurate and robust analysis in categorization tasks
Categorization studies, in which stimuli vary along a category continuum, are becoming increasingly popular in psychological science. These studies demonstrate the effect of category ambiguity on various behavioral and neural measures. In such studies, researchers manipulate objective category levels by varying the physical properties of the stimuli, and then use these levels as predictors of behavior—assuming they map directly onto participants’ perceived locations along the category continuum. This approach might not be optimal, considering the variability in participants’ category boundary locations (their point of subjective equality, or PSE). In this tutorial, we propose addressing this issue by estimating participants’ individual points of subjective equality, adjusting category levels relative to these points, and conducting statistical analyses on the subjective category levels. Implementing this method significantly improves the statistical power of the analysis in both experimental and simulated data. Adjusting stimulus levels by the points of subjective equality is highly suited for social categorization studies, in which points of subjective equality vary significantly. On a broader scale, it can be applied to a variety of categorization, discrimination, and decision-making studies.
A Technical Study of a Head Attributed to Hadda, Afghanistan
This study characterizes the materials and construction methods of a fourth- to fifth-century ce over-lifesized, polychromed head of a Buddhist figure in the collection of the Harvard Art Museums that is believed to be from Hadda, Afghanistan. Many sculptures from this monastic site and others in Greater Gandhara (located in parts of modern-day Afghanistan and Pakistan) were described using the general term “stucco” by the Europeans who collected them in the early twentieth century. Through technical imaging and analysis, this investigation identifies the specific materials of this object to provide a basis of comparison for related sculptures in other collections. While a great variety of materials and techniques—used alone or in combination with others—have been identified on related objects, few of these objects have undergone imaging and analysis to verify materials and visualize construction methods. Examination and analytical methods used in this study included visual examination, micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), radiocarbon dating, and materials analyses by x-ray fluorescence (XRF), scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive microanalysis (SEM-EDS), Raman spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and thin-section petrography. The micromorphology and analysis of samples indicated that the solid head is composed of a lime stucco mixture including varied silicates and carbonates (both calcite and dolomite), and inclusions of fired ceramic and rock fragments. This mixture was applied in layers in situ starting with a coarse-grained core and finishing with a fine layer, with a higher proportion of lime binder. A wooden post, with a likely nineteenth-century date, is embedded within the damaged internal structure and may have been added to replace part of an original armature. Pigments used for polychromed details were identified as ochers and carbon black, with limited use of red lead.
Populist governments and democratic backsliding
Evidence from V-Dem suggests cases of growing illiberalism in recent decades - but also some countries where democracy has proved stable or even strengthened during these years. What has been driving these diverse trajectories? This chapter starts to unpack the theoretical debates and considers new empirical evidence analyzed using mixed methods to explore the links potentially connecting populist governments and backsliding. Part I defines the concept and logic of populist discourse and summarizes the previous theoretical and empirical literature. Part II compares the position of a wide range of political parties towards both liberal democracy and populism. The comparison further confirms that many, but not all, political parties employing populist discourse often oppose checks and balances on executive power, as well as liberal democratic principles, norms and practices. Part III analyses longitudinal cross-national data during the first quarter of the 21st century to determine the dynamic trajectories of democratic regimes worldwide under both populist and non-populist governments. To replicate previous studies in Europe and Latin America, difference-in-difference time-series panel regression models are employed to estimate causal effects through a quasi-experimental technique using observational data from treatment (populist-led governments) and control groups (non-populist governments) in power for heterogeneous periods during the last 25 years. Part V explores the processes of backsliding in more depth, comparing six case-studies of populist governments, including longitudinal trends in the horizontal and vertical checks designed to prevent the executive abuse of power. The selected examples include presidential executives in Jair Bolsonaro’s Brazil, Recep Erdogan’s Turkey, and Donald Trump’s USA, as well as prime ministerial governments in Viktor Orban’s Hungary, Narendra Modi’s India, and Jarosław Kaczyński’s Poland. The conclusion in Part VI summarizes the key findings and considers their broader theoretical and policy implications. The chapter provides further evidence confirming the links connecting the rhetoric of populist parties with their endorsement of illiberal policies; at the same time, many exceptions to these findings can be observed, suggesting that diverse varieties of populist parties exist, even among neighboring states. The paper is drawn from Chapter 4 of my forthcoming book on The Cultural Roots of Democratic Backsliding (OUP 2027)
Against Strategic Surprise: AI-INT as a Synthesis-and-Simulation Layer for Actor Modelling and Strategic Warning
Intelligence organizations often fail to anticipate strategic developments even when relevant information is available because signals remain fragmented, ambiguous, overwhelming, or filtered through entrenched assumptions. The September 11 attacks, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack illustrate how, even within some of the world’s most capable intelligence organizations, available indicators do not reliably translate into effective strategic warning, with outcomes shaped by differences in collection, interpretation, dissemination, and uptake. This article examines these failures and introduces AI-INT, or Artificial Intelligence Intelligence, as a response. AI-INT is an integrated, actor-specific synthesis-and-simulation layer within all-source analysis. It assembles and fuses relevant multi-source intelligence to build and update actor models, then uses them to run simulations at scale under systematically varied assumptions and conditions. It builds on wargaming’s value in deepening understanding, challenging assumptions, exposing blind spots, and exploring alternative trajectories by combining fused intelligence with LLM- and ML-based methods to expand the scenario space. As a bounded architectural illustration, the article presents SESBot, a Behavioral-AI framework for simulating the decision-making of selected Semi-State Terrorist Organizations (SESTOs). SESBot combines LLM-based agents with machine-learning behavioral anchors, illustrating one implementation of intelligence-grounded actor simulation within AI-INT. AI-INT’s promise lies not in predicting the future with certainty or replacing human judgment, but in helping analysts and decision-makers test assumptions, compare alternative scenarios, identify analytic blind spots, surface overlooked trajectories, connect them to monitorable indicators, and communicate uncertainty rigorously.
A Phenomenological and Neurophysiological Study of Schizophrenic Hallucinations with an Original Hypothesis for the Etiology and Pathogenesis of Schizophrenia Based on the Mesolimbic Dopamine System
Schizophrenic hallucinations were studied with regard to their phenomenology. A comparison was made with the "model psychoses"-sleep, hallucinogen psychosis, amphetamine psychosis, and the organic psychoses (especially temporal lobe epilepsy). The dopamine theory of schizophrenia was presented, and then the author's own hypothesis for a neurophysiological mechanism for schizophrenic hallucinations was introduced. This hypothesis is an attempt to explain both the etiology and pathogenesis of schizophrenia. It is based on the dopamine theory, and in particular the mesolimbic (A10) dopamine system. Electrical brain stimulation studies, which evoke experiential hallucinations, along with experimental results showing that these hallucinations are dependent upon the subject's psychological state have caused the author to label this phenomenon contextual hallucinations. Recently, dopamine nerve terminals have been discovered in the limbic cortex and it is known that the neuroleptic drugs antipsychotic effects are in the mesolimbic dopamine system. These findings have led the author to propose that schizophrenic hallucinations are very similar to contextual hallucinations and they are elicited by an improper balance of dopamine in the mesolimbic system. It is thought that stress might psychosocially activate this mechanism. The author also suggests that the additional symptoms of schizophrenia are secondary and peripheral to hallucinations.