Person:

Mahal, Ajay

Background: This study characterizes the historical relationship between coverage of measles containing vaccines (MCV) and mortality in children under 5 years, with a view toward ongoing global efforts to reduce child mortality. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using country-level, longitudinal panel data, from 44 countries over the period 1960–2005, we analyzed the relationship between MCV coverage and measles mortality with (1) logistic regressions for no measles deaths in a country-year, and (2) linear regressions for the logarithm of the measles death rate. All regressions allowed a flexible, non-linear relationship between coverage and mortality. Covariates included birth rate, death rates from other causes, percent living in urban areas, population density, per-capita GDP, use of the two-dose MCV, year, and mortality coding system. Regressions used lagged covariates, country fixed effects, and robust standard errors clustered by country. The likelihood of no measles deaths increased nonlinearly with higher MCV coverage (ORs: 13.8 [1.6–122.7] for 80–89% to 40.7 [3.2–517.6] for ≥95%), compared to pre-vaccination risk levels. Measles death rates declined nonlinearly with higher MCV coverage, with benefits accruing more slowly above 90% coverage. Compared to no coverage, predicted average reductions in death rates were −79% at 70% coverage, −93% at 90%, and −95% at 95%. Conclusions/Significance: 40 years of experience with MCV vaccination suggests that extremely high levels of vaccination coverage are needed to produce sharp reductions in measles deaths. Achieving sustainable benefits likely requires a combination of extended vaccine programs and supplementary vaccine efforts.

Background: Physician 'brain drain' negatively impacts health care delivery. Interventions to address physician emigration have been constrained by lack of research on systematic factors that influence physician migration. We examined the relationship between the quality of medical training and rate of migration to the United States and the United Kingdom among Indian medical graduates (1955–2002). Methods: We calculated the fraction of medical graduates who emigrated to the United States and the United Kingdom, based on rankings of medical colleges and universities according to three indicators of the quality of medical education (a) student choice, (b) academic publications, and (c) the availability of specialty medical training. Results: Physicians from the top quintile medical colleges and of universities were 2 to 4 times more likely to emigrate to the United States and the United Kingdom than graduates from the bottom quintile colleges and universities. Conclusion: Graduates of institutions with better quality medical training have a greater likelihood of emigrating. Interventions designed to counter loss of physicians should focus on graduates from top quality institutions.