Person:

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric

Background: During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1), morbidity and mortality sparing was observed among the elderly population; it was hypothesized that this age group benefited from immunity to pH1N1 due to cross-reactive antibodies generated from prior infection with antigenically similar influenza viruses. Evidence from serologic studies and genetic similarities between pH1N1 and historical influenza viruses suggest that the incidence of pH1N1 cases should drop markedly in age cohorts born prior to the disappearance of H1N1 in 1957, namely those at least 52–53 years old in 2009, but the precise range of ages affected has not been delineated. Methods and Findings: To test for any age-associated discontinuities in pH1N1 incidence, we aggregated laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 case data from 8 jurisdictions in 7 countries, stratified by single year of age, sex (when available), and hospitalization status. Using single year of age population denominators, we generated smoothed curves of the weighted risk ratio of pH1N1 incidence, and looked for sharp drops at varying age bandwidths, defined as a significantly negative second derivative. Analyses stratified by hospitalization status and sex were used to test alternative explanations for observed discontinuities. We found that the risk of laboratory-confirmed infection with pH1N1 declines with age, but that there was a statistically significant leveling off or increase in risk from about 45 to 50 years of age, after which a sharp drop in risk occurs until the late fifties. This trend was more pronounced in hospitalized cases and in women and was independent of the choice in smoothing parameters. The age range at which the decline in risk accelerates corresponds to the cohort born between 1951–1959 (hospitalized) and 1953–1960 (not hospitalized). Conclusions: The reduced incidence of pH1N1 disease in older individuals shows a detailed age-specific pattern consistent with protection conferred by exposure to influenza A/H1N1 viruses circulating before 1957.

Context Anxiety disorders are common, with a lifetime prevalence of 20% in the U.S., and are responsible for substantial burdens of disability, missed work days and health care utilization. To date, no causal genetic variants have been identified for anxiety, anxiety disorders, or related traits. Objective: To investigate whether a phobic anxiety symptom score was associated with 3 alternative polygenic risk scores, derived from external genome-wide association studies of anxiety, an internally estimated agnostic polygenic score, or previously identified candidate genes. Design: Longitudinal follow-up study. Using linear and logistic regression we investigated whether phobic anxiety was associated with polygenic risk scores derived from internal, leave-one out genome-wide association studies, from 31 candidate genes, and from out-of-sample genome-wide association weights previously shown to predict depression and anxiety in another cohort. Setting and Participants: Study participants (n = 11,127) were individuals from the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Main Outcome Measure: Anxiety symptoms were assessed via the 8-item phobic anxiety scale of the Crown Crisp Index at two time points, from which a continuous phenotype score was derived. Results: We found no genome-wide significant associations with phobic anxiety. Phobic anxiety was also not associated with a polygenic risk score derived from the genome-wide association study beta weights using liberal p-value thresholds; with a previously published genome-wide polygenic score; or with a candidate gene risk score based on 31 genes previously hypothesized to predict anxiety. Conclusion: There is a substantial gap between twin-study heritability estimates of anxiety disorders ranging between 20–40% and heritability explained by genome-wide association results. New approaches such as improved genome imputations, application of gene expression and biological pathways information, and incorporating social or environmental modifiers of genetic risks may be necessary to identify significant genetic predictors of anxiety.

While research has suggested that being married may confer a health advantage, few studies to date have investigated the role of marital status in the development of type 2 diabetes. We examined whether men who are not married have increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Men (n = 41,378) who were free of T2D in 1986, were followed for ≤22 years with biennial reports of T2D, marital status and covariates. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare risk of incident T2D by marital status (married vs unmarried and married vs never married, divorced/separated, or widowed). There were 2,952 cases of incident T2D. Compared to married men, unmarried men had a 16% higher risk of developing T2D (95%CI:1.04,1.30), adjusting for age, family history of diabetes, ethnicity, lifestyle and body mass index (BMI). Relative risks (RR) for developing T2D differed for divorced/separated (1.09 [95%CI: 0.94,1.27]), widowed (1.29 [95%CI:1.06,1.57]), and never married (1.17 [95%CI:0.91,1.52]) after adjusting for age, family history of diabetes and ethnicity. Adjusting for lifestyle and BMI, the RR for T2D associated with widowhood was no longer significant (RR:1.16 [95%CI:0.95,1.41]). When allowing for a 2-year lag period between marital status and disease, RRs of T2D for widowers were augmented and borderline significant (RR:1.24 [95%CI:1.00,1.54]) after full adjustment. In conclusion, not being married, and more specifically, widowhood was more consistently associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in men and this may be mediated, in part, through unfavorable changes in lifestyle, diet and adiposity.

RATIONALE:

Higher social integration is associated with lower cardiovascular mortality; however, whether it is associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in women, and whether associations differ by case fatality are unclear. OBJECTIVES:

This study sought to examine the associations between social integration and risk of incident CHD in a large female prospective cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS:

Seventy-six thousand three hundred and sixty-two women in the Nurses' Health Study, free of CHD and stroke at baseline (1992), were followed until 2014. Social integration was assessed by a simplified Berkman-Syme Social Network Index every 4 years. End points included nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD. Two thousand three hundred and seventy-two incident CHD events occurred throughout follow-up. Adjusting for demographic, health/medical risk factors, and depressive symptoms, being socially integrated was significantly associated with lower CHD risk, particularly fatal CHD. The most socially integrated women had a hazard ratio of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.73) of developing fatal CHD compared with those least socially integrated (P for trend <0.0001). When additionally adjusting for lifestyle behaviors, findings for fatal CHD were maintained but attenuated (P for trend =0.02), whereas the significant associations no longer remained for nonfatal myocardial infarction. The inverse associations between social integration and nonfatal myocardial infarction risk were largely explained by health-promoting behaviors, particularly through differences in cigarette smoking; however, the association with fatal CHD risk remained after accounting for these behaviors and, thus, may involve more direct biological mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS:

Social integration is inversely associated with CHD incidence in women, but is largely explained by lifestyle/behavioral pathways.

Medical conditions such as epilepsy or infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are known to be associated with a spectrum of adverse health outcomes if not appropriately managed by efficacious treatment and care. Medications for such conditions can be potent, and their use might sometimes have unintended health consequences. Prominent examples have emerged in HIV perinatal research in which use of antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy to treat maternal HIV infection and prevent transmission of the virus to the fetus have been shown to be associated with adverse birth outcomes. Likewise, use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy to treat maternal epilepsy has been shown to increase the risk of birth defects. Pharmacoepidemiology studies routinely aim to quantify the extent to which, in such settings, an observed association between an underlying medical condition and certain health outcomes can be attributed to the natural progression of the disease, and the extent to which it might be mediated by medication used to slow disease progression. We describe a simple yet principled methodology to quantify medication-mediated effects to address these types of queries. While methods for causal mediation analysis abound, there also has been much criticism of these methods as relying on untestable and sometimes unrealistic assumptions. In contrast, here we show that when the disease-free control group is also medication-free, mediated effects of the type described above are nonparametrically identified under standard no-unobserved confounding conditions, thus establishing that such effects are in a sense immune to recent criticism leveled at causal mediation methodology.

Background. Despite sparse efficacy data, tenofovir–emtricitabine or tenofovir–lamivudine plus nevirapine is used in many resource-constrained settings. Methods. This retrospective cohort study included patients initiating nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) with either tenofovir–emtricitabine or lamivudine (tenofovir group) or zidovudine–lamivudine (zidovudine group). Clinical, virologic, and immunologic evaluations were performed at baseline and every 6 months. Virologic failure was defined as 2 consecutive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-RNA values >1000 copies/mL. Patients were included from ART initiation until time of failure, regimen switch, discontinuation, or last HIV-RNA measurement. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model factors influencing time to failure. Bias due to dependent censoring was investigated via inverse probability weighted pooled logistic regression. Results. A total of 5547 patients were evaluated; 1484 (26.8%) were in the tenofovir group and 4063 (73.2%) were in the zidovudine group. In the adjusted model, tenofovir regimen (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–1.79) and higher baseline log10 HIV-RNA (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.03–1.28) were associated with virologic failure. Higher baseline log10 CD4+ cell count (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, .40–.63) and increasing age (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, .97–.99) decreased the risk of virologic failure. Inverse probability weighting results were consistent with the primary analysis. Conclusions. Compared with zidovudine–lamivudine, the use of tenofovir–lamivudine or emtricitabine in combination with nevirapine was a strong predictor of virologic failure in our cohort, which was not explained by other risk factors or criteria for regimen selection.

Background. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection accelerates liver disease progression in individuals with chronic hepatitis C. We evaluated the associations of CD4, HIV RNA, and antiretroviral therapy (ART)-induced CD4 recovery with liver diagnoses in a prospective cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs). Methods. We evaluated 383 coinfected IDUs in the Boston area, prospectively observed for a median of 1.8 years. Liver disease progression included the first occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma, variceal bleeding, ascites, encephalopathy, or death due to hepatic failure. Multivariable-adjusted extended Cox models were specified to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for comparisons of CD4, change in CD4 (from nadir), and HIV RNA with respect to liver disease progression events. Results. Twenty-four persons experienced a liver disease progression event over 1155 person-years (2.1 per 100 person-years), including 20 deaths attributed to end-stage liver disease (1.7 per 100 person-years). CD4 at baseline and over follow-up strongly predicted liver disease progression (baseline CD4 <200 vs ≥200: HR = 5.23, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.30–11.92; time-updated CD4 <200 vs ≥200: HR = 11.79, 95% CI, 4.47–31.07). Nadir CD4 was also a strong indicator (<100 vs ≥100: HR = 3.52, 95% CI, 1.54–8.06). A lack of CD4 recovery (failure to increase 100 cells over nadir) among ART initiators was associated with increased risk (HR = 7.69; 95% CI, 2.60–22.69). Human immunodeficiency virus RNA was not significantly associated with liver disease progression. Conclusions. Impaired immune function was highly predictive of liver disease progression in this cohort of IDUs, and a lack of CD4 recovery on ART was associated with increased risk of progression to HCV-associated liver disease.

Noncausal associations between exposures and outcomes are a threat to validity of causal inference in observational studies. Many techniques have been developed for study design and analysis to identify and eliminate such errors. Such problems are not expected to compromise experimental studies, where careful standardization of conditions (for laboratory work) and randomization (for population studies) should, if applied properly, eliminate most such noncausal associations. We argue, however, that a routine precaution taken in the design of biologic laboratory experiments—the use of “negative controls”—is designed to detect both suspected and unsuspected sources of spurious causal inference. In epidemiology, analogous negative controls help to identify and resolve confounding as well as other sources of error, including recall bias or analytic flaws. We distinguish 2 types of negative controls (exposure controls and outcome controls), describe examples of each type from the epidemiologic literature, and identify the conditions for the use of such negative controls to detect confounding. We conclude that negative controls should be more commonly employed in observational studies, and that additional work is needed to specify the conditions under which negative controls will be sensitive detectors of other sources of error in observational studies.

There is a consistent association between education and depressive symptoms, but research on the mechanisms to explain this association remains limited. No study has formally evaluated the extent to which the association between education and depressive symptoms is mediated through a foundational skill such as literacy. Inverse odds ratio weighting (IORW) was used to estimate total, natural direct, and natural indirect effects in examining literacy as a mediator of the association between education and depressive symptoms. Health and Retirement Study participants born in the U.S. between 1900 and 1947 were interviewed biennially for up to 12 years (N = 16,718). Literacy was assessed with a brief vocabulary measure. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 8-item Centers for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale. Decomposition estimates were derived using regression analyses of repeated measures of depressive symptoms. Standard errors were obtained using a nonparametric bootstrap with the individual as the independent unit to account for dependence of observations within an individual. In a large cohort of older Americans, a one standard deviation difference in educational attainment (~ 3 years) was associated with a 0.35-point decrement in CES-D score (95% CI: -0.38, -0.32). This decrement represents a 0.22 standard deviation difference in depressive symptoms. Using IORW, the estimated effect of education on depressive symptoms mediated through literacy was -0.10 (95% CI: -0.18, -0.01), which represents 28% of the total effect. Education confers many benefits; as demonstrated by this study for depressive symptoms, one important benefit is literacy.

Background. Despite the benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART), tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons in Africa. Nigeria bears the highest TB burden in Africa and second highest HIV burden globally. This long-term multicenter study aimed to determine the incidence rate and predictors of TB in adults in the Harvard/AIDS Prevention Initiative in Nigeria (APIN) and President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Nigeria ART program. Methods. This retrospective evaluation used data collected from 2004 to 2012 through the Harvard/APIN PEPFAR program. Risk factors for incident TB were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression with time-dependent covariates. Results. Of 50 320 adults enrolled from 2005 to 2010, 11 092 (22%) had laboratory-confirmed active TB disease at ART initiation, and 2021 (4%) developed active TB after commencing ART. During 78 228 total person-years (PY) of follow-up, the TB incidence rate was 25.8 cases per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.7–27.0) overall, and it decreased significantly both with duration on ART and calendar year. Risk factors at ART initiation for incident TB included the following: earlier ART enrollment year, tenofovir-containing initial ART regimen, and World Health Organization clinical stage above 1. Time-updated risk factors included the following: low body mass index, low CD4+ cell count, unsuppressed viral load, anemia, and ART adherence below 80%. Conclusions. The rate of incident TB decreased with longer duration on ART and over the program years. The strongest TB risk factors were time-updated clinical markers, reinforcing the importance of consistent clinical and laboratory monitoring of ART patients in prompt diagnosis and treatment of TB and other coinfections.