Person: Melitz, Marc
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Melitz
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Melitz, Marc
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Publication Trade Liberalization and Firm Dynamics(Cambridge University Press, 2013) Melitz, Marc; Burstein, ArielIn this paper, we analyze the transition dynamics associated with an economy's response to trade liberalization. We start by reviewing the recent literature that incorporates firm dynamics into models of international trade. We then build upon that literature to characterize the role of firm dynamics, export-market selection, firm-level innovation, sunk export costs, and firms' expectations regarding the time path of liberalization in generating those transition dynamics following trade liberalization. These modeling ingredients generate substantial aggregate transition dynamics as they shift and shape the endogenous distribution of firms over time. Our results show how the responses of trade volumes, innovation, and aggregate output can vary greatly over time depending on those modeling ingredients. This has important consequences for many issues in international economics that rely on predictions for the effects of globalization over time on those key aggregate outcomes.Publication Gains from Trade When Firms Matter(American Economic Association, 2012) Melitz, Marc; Trefler, DanielThe rising prominence of intra-industry trade and huge multinationals has transformed the way economists think about the gains from trade. In the past, we focused on gains that stemmed either from endowment differences (wheat for iron ore) or inter-industry comparative advantage (David Ricardo's classic example of cloth for port). Today, we focus on three sources of gains from trade: 1) love-of-variety gains associated with intra-industry trade; 2) allocative efficiency gains associated with shifting labor and capital out of small, less-productive firms and into large, more-productive firms; and 3) productive efficiency gains associated with trade-induced innovation. This paper reviews these three sources of gains from trade both theoretically and empirically. Our empirical evidence will be centered on the experience of Canada following its closer economic integration in 1989 with the United States—the largest example of bilateral intra-industry trade in the world—but we will also describe evidence for other countries.Publication Volatility, Labor Market Flexibility, and the Pattern of Comparative Advantage(Wiley Blackwell (Blackwell Publishing), 2012) Cuñat, Alejandro; Melitz, MarcThis paper studies the link between volatility, labor market flexibility, and international trade. International differences in labor market regulations affect how firms can adjust to idiosyncratic shocks. These institutional differences interact with sector specific differences in volatility (the variance of the firm-specific shocks in a sector) to generate a new source of comparative advantage. Other things equal, countries with more flexible labor markets specialize in sectors with higher volatility. Empirical evidence for a large sample of countries strongly supports this theory: the exports of countries with more flexible labor markets are biased towards high-volatility sectors. We show how differences in labor market institutions can be parsimoniously integrated into the workhorse model of Ricardian comparative advantage of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977, American Economic Review, 67, 823–839). We also show how our model can be extended to multiple factors of production.Publication Endogenous Entry, Product Variety, and Business Cycles(The University of Chicago Press, 2012) Bilbiie, Florin O.; Ghironi, Fabio; Melitz, MarcThis paper builds a framework for the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations that incorporates the endogenous determination of the number of producers and products over the business cycle. Economic expansions induce higher entry rates by prospective entrants subject to sunk investment costs. The sluggish response of the number of producers generates a new and potentially important endogenous propagation mechanism for business cycle models. The return to investment determines household saving decisions, producer entry, and the allocation of labor across sectors. Our framework replicates several features of business cycles and predicts procyclical profits even for preference specifications that imply countercyclical markups.Publication Missing Gains from Trade?(American Economic Association, 2014) Melitz, Marc; Redding, Stephen J.The theoretical result that there are welfare gains from trade is a central tenet of international economics. In a class of trade models that satisfy a gravity equation, the welfare gains from tradecan be computed using only the open economy domestic trade share and the elasticity of trade with respect to variable trade costs. The measured welfare gains from trade from this quantitativeapproach are typically relatively modest. In this paper, we suggest a channel for welfare gains that this quantitative approach typically abstracts from: trade-induced changes in domestic productivity.Using a model of sequential production, in which trade induces a reorganization of production that raises domestic productivity, we show that the welfare gains from trade can become arbitrarily large.Publication Market Size, Competition, and the Product Mix of Exporters(American Economic Association, 2014) Mayer, Thierry; Melitz, Marc; Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P.We build a theoretical model of multi-product firms that highlights how competition across market destinations affects both a firm's exported product range and product mix. We show how tougher competition in an export market induces a firm to skew its export sales toward its best performing products. We find very strong confirmation of this competitive effect for French exporters across export market destinations. Theoretically, this within-firm change in product mix driven by the trading environment has important repercussions on firm productivity. A calibrated fit to our theoretical model reveals that these productivity effects are potentially quite large.Publication New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications(American Economic Association, 2015) Melitz, Marc; Redding, Stephen J.We show that endogenous firm selection provides a new welfare margin for heterogeneous firm models of trade (relative to homogeneous firm models). Under some parameter restrictions, the trade elasticity is constant and is a sufficient statistic for welfare, along with the domestic trade share. However, even small deviations from these restrictions imply that trade elasticities are variable and differ across markets and levels of trade costs. In this more general setting, the domestic trade share and endogenous trade elasticity are no longer sufficient statistics for welfare. Additional empirically observable moments of the micro structure also matter for welfare.Publication Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition with Entry and Exit(Wiley-Blackwell, 2015) Melitz, Marc; Polanec, SašoIn this paper, we propose an extension of the productivity decomposition method developed by Olley & Pakes (1996). This extension provides an accounting for the contributions of both firm entry and exit to aggregate productivity changes. It breaks down the contribution of surviving firms into a component accounting for changes in the firm-level distribution of productivity and another accounting for market share reallocations among those firms - following the same methodology as the one proposed by Olley & Pakes (1996). We argue that the other decompositions that break-down aggregate productivity changes into these same four components introduce some biases in the measurement of the contributions of entry and exit. We apply our proposed decomposition to the large measured increases of productivity in Slovenian manufacturing during the 1995-2000 period and contrast our results with those of other decompositions. We find that, over a 5-year period, the measurement bias associated with entry and exit is substantial, accounting for up to 10 percentage points of aggregate productivity growth. We also find that market share reallocations among surviving firms played a much more important role in driving aggregate productivity changes.Publication A Many-Country, Many-Good Model of Labor Market Rigidities as a Source of Comparative Advantage(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2009) Cuñat, Alejandro; Melitz, MarcWe extend the theoretical framework in Cuñat and Melitz (2007) to a many-country setup where countries exhibit different degrees of labor market fexibility. We rely on the insights from a recent paper by Costinot (2009) to obtain precise predictions about comparative advantage in this setting: countries with more fexible labor markets specialize in more volatile industries.Publication International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms(MIT Press, 2005) Ghironi, Fabio; Melitz, MarcWe develop a stochastic, general equilibrium, two-country model of trade and macroeconomic dynamics. Productivity differs across individual, monopolistically competitive firms in each country. Firms face a sunk entry cost in the domestic market and both fixed and per-unit export costs. Only relatively more productive firms export. Exogenous shocks to aggregate productivity and entry or trade costs induce firms to enter and exit both their domestic and export markets, thus altering the composition of consumption baskets across countries over time. In a world of flexible prices, our model generates endogenously persistent deviations from PPP that would not exist absent our microeconomic structure with heterogeneous firms. It provides an endogenous, microfounded explanation for a Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect in response to aggregate productivity differentials and deregulation. Finally, the model successfully matches several moments of U. S. and international business cycles.