Person:

Kessler, Ronald

Background: Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are a substantial contributor to the global burden of disease and lead to subsequent post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the relevant literature originates in only a few countries, and much remains unknown about MVC-related PTSD prevalence and predictors. Methods: Data come from the World Mental Health Survey Initiative, a coordinated series of community epidemiological surveys of mental disorders throughout the world. The subset of 13 surveys (5 in high income countries, 8 in middle or low income countries) with respondents reporting PTSD after life-threatening MVCs are considered here. Six classes of predictors were assessed: socio-demographics, characteristics of the MVC, childhood family adversities, MVCs, other traumatic experiences, and respondent history of prior mental disorders. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of PTSD. Mental disorders were assessed with the fully-structured Composite International Diagnostic Interview using DSM-IV criteria. Results: Prevalence of PTSD associated with MVCs perceived to be life-threatening was 2.5 % overall and did not vary significantly across countries. PTSD was significantly associated with low respondent education, someone dying in the MVC, the respondent or someone else being seriously injured, childhood family adversities, prior MVCs (but not other traumatic experiences), and number of prior anxiety disorders. The final model was significantly predictive of PTSD, with 32 % of all PTSD occurring among the 5 % of respondents classified by the model as having highest PTSD risk. Conclusion: Although PTSD is a relatively rare outcome of life-threatening MVCs, a substantial minority of PTSD cases occur among the relatively small proportion of people with highest predicted risk. This raises the question whether MVC-related PTSD could be reduced with preventive interventions targeted to high-risk survivors using models based on predictors assessed in the immediate aftermath of the MVCs. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12888-016-0957-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) illness course complicates clinical decision-making. While efforts to use symptom profiles or biomarkers to develop clinically useful prognostic subtypes have had limited success, a recent report showed that machine learning (ML) models developed from self-reports about incident episode characteristics and comorbidities among respondents with lifetime MDD in the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys predicted MDD persistence, chronicity, and severity with good accuracy. We report results of model validation in an independent prospective national household sample of 1,056 respondents with lifetime MDD at baseline. The WMH ML models were applied to these baseline data to generate predicted outcome scores that were compared to observed scores assessed 10–12 years after baseline. ML model prediction accuracy was also compared to that of conventional logistic regression models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) based on ML (.63 for high chronicity and .71–.76 for the other prospective outcomes) was consistently higher than for the logistic models (.62–.70) despite the latter models including more predictors. 34.6–38.1% of respondents with subsequent high persistence-chronicity and 40.8–55.8% with the severity indicators were in the top 20% of the baseline ML predicted risk distribution, while only 0.9% of respondents with subsequent hospitalizations and 1.5% with suicide attempts were in the lowest 20% of the ML predicted risk distribution. These results confirm that clinically useful MDD risk stratification models can be generated from baseline patient self-reports and that ML methods improve on conventional methods in developing such models.

Importance Youth in high-poverty neighborhoods have high rates of emotional problems. Understanding neighborhood influences on mental health is crucial for designing neighborhood-level interventions.

Objective To perform an exploratory analysis of associations between housing mobility interventions for children in high-poverty neighborhoods and subsequent mental disorders during adolescence.

Design, Setting, and Participants The Moving to Opportunity Demonstration from 1994 to 1998 randomized 4604 volunteer public housing families with 3689 children in high-poverty neighborhoods into 1 of 2 housing mobility intervention groups (a low-poverty voucher group vs a traditional voucher group) or a control group. The low-poverty voucher group (n=1430) received vouchers to move to low-poverty neighborhoods with enhanced mobility counseling. The traditional voucher group (n=1081) received geographically unrestricted vouchers. Controls (n=1178) received no intervention. Follow-up evaluation was performed 10 to 15 years later (June 2008-April 2010) with participants aged 13 to 19 years (0-8 years at randomization). Response rates were 86.9% to 92.9%.

Main Outcomes and Measures Presence of mental disorders from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fourth Edition) within the past 12 months, including major depressive disorder, panic disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), oppositional-defiant disorder, intermittent explosive disorder, and conduct disorder, as assessed post hoc with a validated diagnostic interview.

Results Of the 3689 adolescents randomized, 2872 were interviewed (1407 boys and 1465 girls). Compared with the control group, boys in the low-poverty voucher group had significantly increased rates of major depression (7.1% vs 3.5%; odds ratio (OR), 2.2 [95% CI, 1.2-3.9]), PTSD (6.2% vs 1.9%; OR, 3.4 [95% CI, 1.6-7.4]), and conduct disorder (6.4% vs 2.1%; OR, 3.1 [95% CI, 1.7-5.8]). Boys in the traditional voucher group had increased rates of PTSD compared with the control group (4.9% vs 1.9%, OR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.2-5.8]). However, compared with the control group, girls in the traditional voucher group had decreased rates of major depression (6.5% vs 10.9%; OR, 0.6 [95% CI, 0.3-0.9]) and conduct disorder (0.3% vs 2.9%; OR, 0.1 [95% CI, 0.0-0.4]).

Conclusions and Relevance Interventions to encourage moving out of high-poverty neighborhoods were associated with increased rates of depression, PTSD, and conduct disorder among boys and reduced rates of depression and conduct disorder among girls. Better understanding of interactions among individual, family, and neighborhood risk factors is needed to guide future public housing policy changes.

Observational studies have consistently found that youth in high-poverty neighborhoods have high rates of emotional problems even after controlling for individual-level risk factors.1 These findings raise the possibilities that neighborhood characteristics affect emotional functioning2 and neighborhood-level interventions may reduce emotional problems. Available data from observational studies are unclear and subject to selection bias and the possibility of reverse causality (ie, families with emotional problems end up in poorer neighborhoods). Despite this uncertainty, presumptive neighborhood effects have been characterized,3 causal pathways have been hypothesized,4 and interventions have been implemented.5

It is important to evaluate these causal claims regarding neighborhood effects experimentally. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) enacted a housing mobility experiment known as the Moving to Opportunity for Fair Housing Demonstration by randomizing volunteer low-income public housing families with children to receive vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods.6,7 An interim evaluation 4 to 7 years after randomization showed that the intervention caused families to move to better neighborhoods with lower poverty and crime rates and increased social ties with more affluent people.8 Significant reductions in psychological distress and depression were also found among adolescent girls in the intervention group vs the control group but increased behavior problems were found among adolescent boys in the intervention group vs the control group.9- 11 Given the importance of these sex differences, clinically significant mental disorders were included in a long-term (10-15 years after randomization) follow-up assessment. Prior long-term follow-up reports documented effects on improved neighborhood characteristics,12,13 reduced adult extreme obesity and diabetes,14 and improved adult subjective well-being.13 No detectable effects on economic self-sufficiency were found.13 Although long-term evaluation found significantly reduced psychological distress among adolescent girls,15 measures of mental disorders were not examined in previous reports.

The primary objectives of the Moving to Opportunity study were to move families to lower-poverty neighborhoods and increase educational achievement and economic self-sufficiency. Mental disorders were measured as post hoc outcomes. The current report presents the first exploratory analyses evaluating long-term associations of housing mobility randomization with mental disorders among participants who were in early childhood at randomization and adolescence at follow-up.

IMPORTANCE: The US Army experienced a sharp increase in soldier suicides beginning in 2004. Administrative data reveal that among those at highest risk are soldiers in the 12 months after inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder. OBJECTIVE: To develop an actuarial risk algorithm predicting suicide in the 12 months after US Army soldier inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder to target expanded posthospitalization care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: There were 53,769 hospitalizations of active duty soldiers from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2009, with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification psychiatric admission diagnoses. Administrative data available before hospital discharge abstracted from a wide range of data systems (sociodemographic, US Army career, criminal justice, and medical or pharmacy) were used to predict suicides in the subsequent 12 months using machine learning methods (regression trees and penalized regressions) designed to evaluate cross-validated linear, nonlinear, and interactive predictive associations. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Suicides of soldiers hospitalized with psychiatric disorders in the 12 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Sixty-eight soldiers died by suicide within 12 months of hospital discharge (12.0% of all US Army suicides), equivalent to 263.9 suicides per 100,000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100,000 person-years in the total US Army. The strongest predictors included sociodemographics (male sex [odds ratio (OR), 7.9; 95% CI, 1.9-32.6] and late age of enlistment [OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5]), criminal offenses (verbal violence [OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0] and weapons possession [OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.7-18.3]), prior suicidality [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9], aspects of prior psychiatric inpatient and outpatient treatment (eg, number of antidepressant prescriptions filled in the past 12 months [OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7]), and disorders diagnosed during the focal hospitalizations (eg, nonaffective psychosis [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.0]). A total of 52.9% of posthospitalization suicides occurred after the 5% of hospitalizations with highest predicted suicide risk (3824.1 suicides per 100,000 person-years). These highest-risk hospitalizations also accounted for significantly elevated proportions of several other adverse posthospitalization outcomes (unintentional injury deaths, suicide attempts, and subsequent hospitalizations). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The high concentration of risk of suicide and other adverse outcomes might justify targeting expanded posthospitalization interventions to soldiers classified as having highest posthospitalization suicide risk, although final determination requires careful consideration of intervention costs, comparative effectiveness, and possible adverse effects.

We examined the associations between mental disorders and suicidal behavior (ideation, plans, and attempts) among new soldiers using data from the New Soldier Study (NSS) component of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS; n=38,507). Most new soldiers with a pre-enlistment history of suicide attempt reported a prior mental disorder (59.0%). Each disorder examined was associated with increased odds of suicidal behavior (ORs=2.6–8.6). Only PTSD and disorders characterized by irritability and impulsive/aggressive behavior (i.e., bipolar disorder, conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder) predicted unplanned attempts among ideators. Mental disorders are important predictors of pre-enlistment suicidal behavior among new soldiers and should figure prominently in suicide screening and prevention efforts.

Background

The prevalence of suicide among U.S. Army soldiers has risen dramatically in recent years. Prior studies suggest that most soldiers with suicidal behaviors (i.e., ideation, plans, and attempts) had first onsets prior to enlistment. However, those data are based on retrospective self-reports of soldiers later in their Army careers. Unbiased examination of this issue requires investigation of suicidality among new soldiers.

Method

The New Soldier Study (NSS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) used fully structured self-administered measures to estimate preenlistment histories of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts among new soldiers reporting for Basic Combat Training in 2011–2012. Survival models examined sociodemographic correlates of each suicidal outcome.

Results

Lifetime prevalence estimates of preenlistment suicide ideation, plans, and attempts were 14.1, 2.3, and 1.9%, respectively. Most reported onsets of suicide plans and attempts (73.3–81.5%) occurred within the first year after onset of ideation. Odds of these lifetime suicidal behaviors among new soldiers were positively, but weakly associated with being female, unmarried, religion other than Protestant or Catholic, and a race/ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, or Hispanic.

Conclusions

Lifetime prevalence estimates of suicidal behaviors among new soldiers are consistent with retrospective reports of preenlistment prevalence obtained from soldiers later in their Army careers. Given that prior suicidal behaviors are among the strongest predictors of later suicides, consideration should be given to developing methods of obtaining valid reports of preenlistment suicidality from new soldiers to facilitate targeting of preventive interventions.

Importance Although high rates of current mental disorder are known to exist in the US Army, little is known about the proportions of these disorders that had onsets prior to enlistment.

Objective To estimate the proportions of 30-day DSM-IV mental disorders among nondeployed US Army personnel with first onsets prior to enlistment and the extent which role impairments associated with 30-day disorders differ depending on whether the disorders had pre- vs post-enlistment onsets.

Design, Setting, and Participants A representative sample of 5428 soldiers participating in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers completed self-administered questionnaires and consented to linkage of questionnaire responses with administrative records.

Main Outcomes and Measures Thirty-day DSM-IV internalizing (major depressive, bipolar, generalized anxiety, panic, and posttraumatic stress) and externalizing (attention-deficit/hyperactivity, intermittent explosive, alcohol/drug) disorders were assessed with validated self-report scales. Age at onset was assessed retrospectively. Role impairment was assessed with a modified Sheehan Disability Scale.

Results A total of 25.1% of respondents met criteria for any 30-day disorder (15.0% internalizing; 18.4% externalizing) and 11.1% for multiple disorders. A total of 76.6% of cases reported pre-enlistment age at onset of at least one 30-day disorder (49.6% internalizing; 81.7% externalizing). Also, 12.8% of respondents reported severe role impairment. Controlling for sociodemographic and Army career correlates, which were broadly consistent with other studies, 30-day disorders with pre-enlistment (χ28 = 131.8, P < .001) and post-enlistment (χ27 = 123.8, P < .001) ages at onset both significantly predicted severe role impairment, although pre-enlistment disorders were more consistent powerful predictors (7 of 8 disorders significant; odds ratios, 1.6-11.4) than post-enlistment disorders (5 of 7 disorders significant; odds ratios, 1.5-7.7). Population-attributable risk proportions of severe role impairment were 21.7% for pre-enlistment disorders, 24.3% for post-enlistment disorders, and 43.4% for all disorders.

Conclusions and Relevance Interventions to limit accession or increase resilience of new soldiers with pre-enlistment mental disorders might reduce prevalence and impairments of mental disorders in the US Army.

Context Although suicide is the third leading cause of death among US adolescents, little is known about the prevalence, correlates, or treatment of its immediate precursors, adolescent suicidal behaviors (ie, suicide ideation, plans, and attempts).

Objectives To estimate the lifetime prevalence of suicidal behaviors among US adolescents and the associations of retrospectively reported, temporally primary DSM-IV disorders with the subsequent onset of suicidal behaviors.

Design Dual-frame national sample of adolescents from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication Adolescent Supplement.

Setting Face-to-face household interviews with adolescents and questionnaires for parents.

Participants A total of 6483 adolescents 13 to 18 years of age and their parents.

Main Outcome Measures Lifetime suicide ideation, plans, and attempts.

Results The estimated lifetime prevalences of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts among the respondents are 12.1%, 4.0%, and 4.1%, respectively. The vast majority of adolescents with these behaviors meet lifetime criteria for at least one DSM-IV mental disorder assessed in the survey. Most temporally primary (based on retrospective age-of-onset reports) fear/anger, distress, disruptive behavior, and substance disorders significantly predict elevated odds of subsequent suicidal behaviors in bivariate models. The most consistently significant associations of these disorders are with suicide ideation, although a number of disorders are also predictors of plans and both planned and unplanned attempts among ideators. Most suicidal adolescents (>80%) receive some form of mental health treatment. In most cases (>55%), treatment starts prior to onset of suicidal behaviors but fails to prevent these behaviors from occurring.

Conclusions Suicidal behaviors are common among US adolescents, with rates that approach those of adults. The vast majority of youth with suicidal behaviors have preexisting mental disorders. The disorders most powerfully predicting ideation, though, are different from those most powerfully predicting conditional transitions from ideation to plans and attempts. These differences suggest that distinct prediction and prevention strategies are needed for ideation, plans among ideators, planned attempts, and unplanned attempts.

Importance The suicide rate among US Army soldiers has increased substantially in recent years.

Objectives To estimate the lifetime prevalence and sociodemographic, Army career, and psychiatric predictors of suicidal behaviors among nondeployed US Army soldiers.

Design, Setting, and Participants A representative cross-sectional survey of 5428 nondeployed soldiers participating in a group self-administered survey.

Main Outcomes and Measures Lifetime suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and suicide attempts.

Results The lifetime prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and suicide attempts are 13.9%, 5.3%, and 2.4%. Most reported cases (47.0%-58.2%) had pre-enlistment onsets. Pre-enlistment onset rates were lower than in a prior national civilian survey (with imputed/simulated age at enlistment), whereas post-enlistment onsets of ideation and plans were higher, and post-enlistment first attempts were equivalent to civilian rates. Most reported onsets of plans and attempts among ideators (58.3%-63.3%) occur within the year of onset of ideation. Post-enlistment attempts are positively related to being a woman (with an odds ratio [OR] of 3.3 [95% CI, 1.5-7.5]), lower rank (OR = 5.8 [95% CI, 1.8-18.1]), and previously deployed (OR = 2.4-3.7) and are negatively related to being unmarried (OR = 0.1-0.8) and assigned to Special Operations Command (OR = 0.0 [95% CI, 0.0-0.0]). Five mental disorders predict post-enlistment first suicide attempts in multivariate analysis: pre-enlistment panic disorder (OR = 0.1 [95% CI, 0.0-0.8]), pre-enlistment posttraumatic stress disorder (OR = 0.1 [95% CI, 0.0-0.7]), post-enlistment depression (OR = 3.8 [95% CI, 1.2-11.6]), and both pre- and post-enlistment intermittent explosive disorder (OR = 3.7-3.8). Four of these 5 ORs (posttraumatic stress disorder is the exception) predict ideation, whereas only post-enlistment intermittent explosive disorder predicts attempts among ideators. The population-attributable risk proportions of lifetime mental disorders predicting post-enlistment suicide attempts are 31.3% for pre-enlistment onset disorders, 41.2% for post-enlistment onset disorders, and 59.9% for all disorders.

Conclusions and Relevance The fact that approximately one-third of post-enlistment suicide attempts are associated with pre-enlistment mental disorders suggests that pre-enlistment mental disorders might be targets for early screening and intervention. The possibility of higher fatality rates among Army suicide attempts than among civilian suicide attempts highlights the potential importance of means control (ie, restricting access to lethal means [such as firearms]) as a suicide prevention strategy.

The US Army suicide rate has increased sharply in recent years. Identifying significant predictors of Army suicides in Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative records might help focus prevention efforts and guide intervention content. Previous studies of administrative data, although documenting significant predictors, were based on limited samples and models. A career history perspective is used here to develop more textured models. The analysis was carried out as part of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). De-identified data were combined across numerous Army and DoD administrative data systems for all Regular Army soldiers on active duty in 2004–2009. Multivariate associations of sociodemographics and Army career variables with suicide were examined in subgroups defined by time in service, rank and deployment history. Several novel results were found that could have intervention implications. The most notable of these were significantly elevated suicide rates (69.6–80.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total Army) among enlisted soldiers deployed either during their first year of service or with less than expected (based on time in service) junior enlisted rank; a substantially greater rise in suicide among women than men during deployment; and a protective effect of marriage against suicide only during deployment. A career history approach produces several actionable insights missed in less textured analyses of administrative data predictors. Expansion of analyses to a richer set of predictors might help refine understanding of intervention implications.