Person:

Wang, Rui

To address whether sequences of viral gag and env quasispecies collected during the early post-acute period can be utilized to determine multiplicity of transmitted HIV's, recently developed approaches for analysis of viral evolution in acute HIV-1 infection [1], [2] were applied. Specifically, phylogenetic reconstruction, inter- and intra-patient distribution of maximum and mean genetic distances, analysis of Poisson fitness, shape of highlighter plots, recombination analysis, and estimation of time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) were utilized for resolving multiplicity of HIV-1 transmission in a set of viral quasispecies collected within 50 days post-seroconversion (p/s) in 25 HIV-infected individuals with estimated time of seroconversion. The decision on multiplicity of HIV infection was made based on the model's fit with, or failure to explain, the observed extent of viral sequence heterogeneity. The initial analysis was based on phylogeny, inter-patient distribution of maximum and mean distances, and Poisson fitness, and was able to resolve multiplicity of HIV transmission in 20 of 25 (80%) cases. Additional analysis involved distribution of individual viral distances, highlighter plots, recombination analysis, and estimation of tMRCA, and resolved 4 of the 5 remaining cases. Overall, transmission of a single viral variant was identified in 16 of 25 (64%) cases, and transmission of multiple variants was evident in 8 of 25 (32%) cases. In one case multiplicity of HIV-1 transmission could not be determined. In primary HIV-1 subtype C infection, samples collected within 50 days p/s and analyzed by a single-genome amplification/sequencing technique can provide reliable identification of transmission multiplicity in 24 of 25 (96%) cases. Observed transmission frequency of a single viral variant and multiple viral variants were within the ranges of 64% to 68%, and 32% to 36%, respectively.

Cross-sectional prevalence studies based on immunoassays that discriminate between recent and long-term infections, such as the BED assay, have been widely used to estimate HIV incidence. However, individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy tend to have lower BED levels and are associated with a higher risk for being mistakenly classified as recent infections. To assess the effect of short-term antenatal zidovudine (ZDV) and single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) on the BED levels in HIV-1C infection, we measured longitudinal BED normalized optical density (OD-n) levels using stored plasma samples collected prenatally and postnatally from 159 pregnant HIV-infected women in Botswana who participated in the randomized clinical Mother-to-Child-Prevention study, the Mashi study. All women received ZDV from 34 weeks gestation through delivery and were randomized to receive either sdNVP or placebo during labor. Among 159 subjects, the OD-n levels decreased from baseline to delivery in 93 subjects (p=0.039), suggesting that short-course ZDV may decrease OD-n levels. sdNVP at delivery did not affect longitudinal BED OD-n levels postdelivery. However, sdNVP appeared to modify the association between CD4 count at delivery and OD-n levels postdelivery. When estimating HIV incidence with the BED assay, special care may be required regarding women who received short-term ZDV for prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

Laboratory cross-sectional assays are useful for the estimation of HIV incidence, but are known to misclassify individuals with long-standing infection as recently infected. The false recent rate (FRR) varies widely across geographic areas; therefore, accurate estimates of HIV incidence require a locally defined FRR. We determined FRR for Botswana, where HIV-1 subtype C infection is predominant, using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), a Bio-Rad Avidity Index (BAI) assay (a modification of the Bio-Rad HIV1/2+O EIA), and two multiassay algorithms (MAA) that included clinical data. To estimate FRR, stored blood samples from 512 antiretroviral (ARV)-naive HIV-1 subtype C-infected individuals from a prospective cohort in Botswana were tested at 18-24 months postenrollment. The following FRR mean (95% CI) values were obtained: BED 6.05% (4.15-8.48), BAI 5.57% (3.70-8.0), BED-BAI 2.25% (1.13-4.0), and a combination of BED-BAI with CD4 (>200) and viral load (>400) threshold 1.43% (0.58-2.93). The interassay agreement between BED and BAI was 92.8% (95% CI, 90.1-94.5) for recent/long-term classification. Misclassification was associated with viral suppression for BED [adjusted OR (aOR) 10.31; p=0.008], BAI [aOR 9.72; p=0.019], and MAA1 [aOR 16.6; p=0.006]. Employing MAA can reduce FRR to <2%. A local FRR can improve cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates.

Background: Determining patterns of HIV transmission is increasingly important for the most efficient use of modern prevention interventions. HIV phylogeny can provide a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying HIV transmission networks in communities. Methods: To reconstruct the structure and dynamics of a local HIV/AIDS epidemic, the phylogenetic relatedness of HIV-1 subtype C env sequences obtained from 785 HIV-infected community residents in the northeastern sector of Mochudi, Botswana, during 2010–2013 was estimated. The genotyping coverage was estimated at 44%. Clusters were defined based on relatedness of HIV-1C env sequences and bootstrap support of splits. Results: The overall proportion of clustered HIV-1C env sequences was 19.1% (95% CI 17.5% to 20.8%). The proportion of clustered sequences from Mochudi was significantly higher than the proportion of non-Mochudi sequences that clustered, 27.0% vs. 14.7% (p = 5.8E-12; Fisher exact test). The majority of clustered Mochudi sequences (90.1%; 95% CI 85.1% to 93.6%) were found in the Mochudi-unique clusters. None of the sequences from Mochudi clustered with any of the 1,244 non-Botswana HIV-1C sequences. At least 83 distinct HIV-1C variants, or chains of HIV transmission, in Mochudi were enumerated, and their sequence signatures were reconstructed. Seven of 20 genotyped seroconverters were found in 7 distinct clusters. Conclusions: The study provides essential characteristics of the HIV transmission network in a community in Botswana, suggests the importance of high sampling coverage, and highlights the need for broad HIV genotyping to determine the spread of community-unique and community-mixed viral variants circulating in local epidemics. The proposed methodology of cluster analysis enumerates circulating HIV variants and can work well for surveillance of HIV transmission networks. HIV genotyping at the community level can help to optimize and balance HIV prevention strategies in trials and combined intervention packages.

Linkage analysis is useful in investigating disease transmission dynamics and the effect of interventions on them, but estimates of probabilities of linkage between infected people from observed data can be biased downward when missingness is informative. We investigate variation in the rates at which subjects' viral genotypes link across groups defined by viral load (low/high) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) status using blood samples from household surveys in the Northeast sector of Mochudi, Botswana. The probability of obtaining a sequence from a sample varies with viral load; samples with low viral load are harder to amplify. Pairwise genetic distances were estimated from aligned nucleotide sequences of HIV-1C env gp120. It is first shown that the probability that randomly selected sequences are linked can be estimated consistently from observed data. This is then used to develop estimates of the probability that a sequence from one group links to at least one sequence from another group under the assumption of independence across pairs. Furthermore, a resampling approach is developed that accounts for the presence of correlation across pairs, with diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the method. Sequences were obtained for 65% of subjects with high viral load (HVL, n = 117), 54% of subjects with low viral load but not on ART (LVL, n = 180), and 45% of subjects on ART (ART, n = 126). The probability of linkage between two individuals is highest if both have HVL, and lowest if one has LVL and the other has LVL or is on ART. Linkage across groups is high for HVL and lower for LVL and ART. Adjustment for missing data increases the group-wise linkage rates by 40–100%, and changes the relative rates between groups. Bias in inferences regarding HIV viral linkage that arise from differential ability to genotype samples can be reduced by appropriate methods for accommodating missing data.

The diversity of HIV-1 and its propensity to generate escape mutants present fundamental challenges to control efforts, including HIV vaccine design. Intra-host diversification of HIV is determined by immune responses elicited by an HIV-infected individual over the course of the infection. Complex and dynamic patterns of transmission of HIV lead to an even more complex population viral diversity over time, thus presenting enormous challenges to vaccine development. To address inter-patient viral evolution over time, a set of 653 unique HIV-1 subtype C gag sequences were retrieved from the LANL HIV Database, grouped by sampling year as <2000, 2000, 2001-2002, 2003, and 2004-2006, and analyzed for the site-specific frequency of translated amino acid residues. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that a total of 289 out of 653 (44.3%) analyzed sequences were found within 16 clusters defined by aLRT of more than 0.90. Median (IQR) inter-sample diversity of analyzed gag sequences was 8.7% (7.7%; 9.8%). Despite the heterogeneous origins of analyzed sequences, the gamut and frequency of amino acid residues in wild-type Gag were remarkably stable over the last decade of the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic. The vast majority of amino acid residues demonstrated minor frequency fluctuation over time, consistent with the conservative nature of the HIV-1 Gag protein. Only 4.0% (20 out of 500; HXB2 numbering) amino acid residues across Gag displayed both statistically significant (p<0.05 by both a trend test and heterogeneity test) changes in amino acid frequency over time as well as a range of at least 10% in the frequency of the major amino acid. A total of 59.2% of amino acid residues with changing frequency of 10%+ were found within previously identified CTL epitopes. The time of the most recent common ancestor of the HIV-1 subtype C was dated to around 1950 (95% HPD from 1928 to 1962). This study provides evidence for the overall stability of HIV-1 subtype C Gag among viruses circulating in the epidemic over the last decade. However selected sites across HIV-1C Gag with changing amino acid frequency are likely to be under selection pressure at the population level.

The first aim of the study is to assess the distribution of HIV-1 RNA levels in subtype C infection. Among 4,348 drug-naïve HIV-positive individuals participating in clinical studies in Botswana, the median baseline plasma HIV-1 RNA levels differed between the general population cohorts (4.1–4.2 log10) and cART-initiating cohorts (5.1–5.3 log10) by about one log10. The proportion of individuals with high (≥50,000 (4.7 log10) copies/ml) HIV-1 RNA levels ranged from 24%–28% in the general HIV-positive population cohorts to 65%–83% in cART-initiating cohorts. The second aim is to estimate the proportion of individuals who maintain high HIV-1 RNA levels for an extended time and the duration of this period. For this analysis, we estimate the proportion of individuals who could be identified by repeated 6- vs. 12-month-interval HIV testing, as well as the potential reduction of HIV transmission time that can be achieved by testing and ARV treating. Longitudinal analysis of 42 seroconverters revealed that 33% (95% CI: 20%–50%) of individuals maintain high HIV-1 RNA levels for at least 180 days post seroconversion (p/s) and the median duration of high viral load period was 350 (269; 428) days p/s. We found that it would be possible to identify all HIV-infected individuals with viral load ≥50,000 (4.7 log10) copies/ml using repeated six-month-interval HIV testing. Assuming individuals with high viral load initiate cART after being identified, the period of high transmissibility due to high viral load can potentially be reduced by 77% (95% CI: 71%–82%). Therefore, if HIV-infected individuals maintaining high levels of plasma HIV-1 RNA for extended period of time contribute disproportionally to HIV transmission, a modified “test-and-treat” strategy targeting such individuals by repeated HIV testing (followed by initiation of cART) might be a useful public health strategy for mitigating the HIV epidemic in some communities.

Background: Aiming to answer the broad question “When does mutation occur?” this study examined the time of appearance, dominance, and completeness of in vivo Gag mutations in primary HIV-1 subtype C infection. Methods: A primary HIV-1C infection cohort comprised of 8 acutely and 34 recently infected subjects were followed frequently up to 500 days post-seroconversion (p/s). Gag mutations were analyzed by employing single-genome amplification and direct sequencing. Gag mutations were determined in relation to the estimated time of seroconversion. Time of appearance, dominance, and completeness was compared for different types of in vivo Gag mutations. Results: Reverse mutations to the wild type appeared at a median (IQR) of 62 (44;139) days p/s, while escape mutations from the wild type appeared at 234 (169;326) days p/s (p<0.001). Within the subset of mutations that became dominant, reverse and escape mutations appeared at 54 (30;78) days p/s and 104 (47;198) days p/s, respectively (p<0.001). Among the mutations that reached completeness, reverse and escape mutations appeared at 54 (30;78) days p/s and 90 (44;196) days p/s, respectively (p = 0.006). Time of dominance for reverse mutations to and escape mutations from the wild type was 58 (44;105) days p/s and 219 (90;326) days p/s, respectively (p<0.001). Time of completeness for reverse and escape mutations was 152 (100;176) days p/s and 243 (101;370) days p/s, respectively (p = 0.001). Fitting a Cox proportional hazards model with frailties confirmed a significantly earlier time of appearance (hazard ratio (HR): 2.6; 95% CI: 2.3–3.0), dominance (4.8 (3.4–6.8)), and completeness (3.6 (2.3–5.5)) of reverse mutations to the wild type Gag than escape mutations from the wild type. Some complex mutational pathways in Gag included sequential series of reversions and escapes. Conclusions: The study identified the timing of different types of in vivo Gag mutations in primary HIV-1 subtype C infection in relation to the estimated time of seroconversion. Overall, the in vivo reverse mutations to the wild type occurred significantly earlier than escape mutations from the wild type. This shorter time to incidence of reverse mutations remained in the subsets of in vivo Gag mutations that reached dominance or completeness.

Power considerations for trials evaluating vaccines against infectious diseases are complicated by indirect protective effects of vaccination. While cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) are less statistically efficient than individually randomized controlled trials (iRCTs), a cRCT’s ability to measure direct and indirect vaccine effects may mitigate the loss of efficiency due to clustering. Within cRCTs, the number and size of clusters affects 3 determinants of power: the effect size being measured, disease incidence, and intracluster correlation. We simulated trials conducted in a collection of small communities to assess how indirect protection and clustering affected the power of cRCTs and iRCTs during an emerging epidemic. Across diverse parameters, we found that within the same trial population, cRCTs were never more powerful than iRCTs, although the difference can be small. We also identified 2 effects that attenuated the loss of cRCT power traditionally associated with increased cluster size. First, if enrollment of fewer, larger clusters was performed to achieve higher vaccine coverage within vaccinated communities, this increased the effect to be measured and, consequently, power. Second, the greater rate of imported transmission in larger communities may increase the attack rate and similarly mitigate loss of power relative to a trial in many, smaller communities.