Person:

Bitton, Asaf

Background: Relatively few data exist on the burden of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and use of renal replacement therapy (RRT)–a life-saving therapy–in developing regions. No study has quantified the proportion of patients who develop ESRD but are unable to access RRT. Methods: We performed a comprehensive literature search to estimate use and annual initiation of RRT worldwide, and present these estimates according to World Bank regions. We also present estimates of survival and of etiology of diseases in patients undergoing RRT. Using data on prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, we modeled the incidence of ESRD related to these risk factors in order to quantify the gap between ESRD and use of RRT in developing regions. Results: We find that 1.9 million patients are undergoing RRT worldwide, with continued use and annual initiation at 316 and 73 per million population respectively. RRT use correlates directly (Pearson’s r = 0.94) with regional income. Hemodialysis remains the dominant form of RRT but there is wide regional variation in its use. With the exception of the Latin American and Caribbean region, it appears that initiation of RRT in developing regions is restricted to fewer than a quarter of patients projected to develop ESRD. This results in at least 1.2 million premature deaths each year due to lack of access to RRT as a result of diabetes and elevated blood pressure and as many as 3.2 million premature deaths due to all causes of ESRD. Conclusion: Thus, the majority of patients projected to reach ESRD due to diabetes or hypertension in developing regions are unable to access RRT; this gap will increase with rising prevalence of these risk factors worldwide.

Background: We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade. Methods and Findings: A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%–34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements. Conclusions: Smoke-free laws and substantially increased tobacco taxation appear to be markedly potent population measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Despite the rise in co-morbid cardiovascular disease risk factors like hyperlipidemia and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, tobacco control is likely to remain a highly effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular deaths. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary