Person:

Pagano, Marcello

Background: Originally a binary classifier, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) has proven to be a useful tool for classification of the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni into multiple categories (≤10%, >10 and <50%, ≥50%), and semi-curtailed sampling has been shown to effectively reduce the number of observations needed to reach a decision. To date the statistical underpinnings for Multiple Category-LQAS (MC-LQAS) have not received full treatment. We explore the analytical properties of MC-LQAS, and validate its use for the classification of S. mansoni prevalence in multiple settings in East Africa. Methodology We outline MC-LQAS design principles and formulae for operating characteristic curves. In addition, we derive the average sample number for MC-LQAS when utilizing semi-curtailed sampling and introduce curtailed sampling in this setting. We also assess the performance of MC-LQAS designs with maximum sample sizes of n = 15 and n = 25 via a weighted kappa-statistic using S. mansoni data collected in 388 schools from four studies in East Africa. Principle Findings Overall performance of MC-LQAS classification was high (kappa-statistic of 0.87). In three of the studies, the kappa-statistic for a design with n = 15 was greater than 0.75. In the fourth study, where these designs performed poorly (kappa-statistic less than 0.50), the majority of observations fell in regions where potential error is known to be high. Employment of semi-curtailed and curtailed sampling further reduced the sample size by as many as 0.5 and 3.5 observations per school, respectively, without increasing classification error. Conclusion/Significance: This work provides the needed analytics to understand the properties of MC-LQAS for assessing the prevalance of S. mansoni and shows that in most settings a sample size of 15 children provides a reliable classification of schools.

It is acknowledged that some obesity trajectories are set early in life, and that rapid weight gain in infancy is a risk factor for later development of obesity. Identifying modifiable factors associated with early rapid weight gain is a prerequisite for curtailing the growing worldwide obesity epidemic. Recently, much attention has been given to findings indicating that gut microbiota may play a role in obesity development. We aim at identifying how the development of early gut microbiota is associated with expected infant growth. We developed a novel procedure that allows for the identification of longitudinal gut microbiota patterns (corresponding to the gut ecosystem developing), which are associated with an outcome of interest, while appropriately controlling for the false discovery rate. Our method identified developmental pathways of Staphylococcus species and Escherichia coli that were associated with expected growth, and traditional methods indicated that the detection of Bacteroides species at day 30 was associated with growth. Our method should have wide future applicability for studying gut microbiota, and is particularly important for translational considerations, as it is critical to understand the timing of microbiome transitions prior to attempting to manipulate gut microbiota in early life.