Person: Pakes, Ariel
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Pakes
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Ariel
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Pakes, Ariel
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Publication Empirical tools and competition analysis: Past progress and current problems(Elsevier BV, 2017) Pakes, ArielI review a subset of the empirical tools available for competition analysis. The tools discussed are those needed for the empirical analysis of; demand, production efficiency, product repositioning, and the evolution of market structure. Where relevant I start with a brief review of tools developed in the 1990s that have recently been incorporated into the analysis of actual policy. The focus is on providing an overview of new developments; both those that are easy to implement, and those that are not quite at that stage yet show promise.Publication Alternative Models for Moment Inequalities(Econometric Society, 2010) Pakes, ArielBehavioral choice models generate inequalities which, when combined with additional assumptions, can be used as a basis for estimation. This paper considers two sets of such assumptions and uses them in two empirical examples. The second example examines the structure of payments resulting from the upstream interactions in a vertical market. I then mimic the empirical setting for this example in a numerical analysis which computes actual equilibria, examines how their characteristics vary with the market setting, and compares them to the empirical results. The final section uses the numerical results in a Monte Carlo analysis of the robustness of the two approaches to estimation to their underlying assumptions.Publication The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010-12(2010) Ho, Kate; Pakes, Ariel; Shepard, MarkWe analyze the evolution of health insurer costs in Massachusetts between 2010-2012, paying particular attention to changes in the composition of enrollees. This was a period in which Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) increasingly used physician cost control incentives but Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs) did not. We show that cost growth and its components cannot be understood without accounting for (i) consumers’ switching between plans, and (ii) differences in cost characteristics between new entrants and those leaving the market. New entrants are markedly less costly than those leaving (and their costs fall after their entering year), so cost growth of continuous enrollees in a plan is significantly higher than average per-member cost growth. Relatively high-cost HMO members switch to PPOs while low-cost PPO members switch to HMOs, so the impact of cost control incentives on HMO costs is likely different from their impact on market-wide insurer costs.Publication Optimum Contracts for Research Personnel, Research Employment, and the Establishment of "Rival" Enterprises(University of Chicago Press, 1983) Pakes, Ariel; Nitzan, ShmuelThis paper considers the problem of hiring scientists for research and development projects when one takes explicit account of the fact that the scientist may be able to use the information acquired during the project in a rival enterprise. Management's problem is to determine an optimum labor policy for its project. The policy consists of an employment decision and a labor contract. Given optimum behavior, it is straightforward to analyze the effect of the potential for mobility of scientific personnel on project profitability and on research employment. We also formalize conditions under which one would expect to observe a scientist leaving his employer to set up or join a rival.Publication On Patents, R & D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return(University of Chicago Press, 1985) Pakes, ArielEmpirical work on the causes and effects of inventive activity has had difficulty in finding measures that can indicate when and where changes in either inventive inputs or inventive output have occurred. The recent computerization of the U.S. Patent Office's data base may prove helpful in this context, but there is the problem that a priori we do not know the relationships between patent applications and economically meaningful measures of these inputs and outputs. To help solve this problem, this paper investigates the dynamic relationships among the number of successful patent applications of firms, a measure of the firm's investment in inventive activity (its R & D expenditures), and an indicator of its inventive output (the stock market value of the firm).Publication Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market(University of Chicago Press, 2004) Berry, Steven; Levinsohn, James; Pakes, ArielIn this paper, we consider how rich sources of information on consumer choice can help to identify demand parameters in a widely used class of differentiated products demand models. Most important, we show how to use “second‐choice” data on automotive purchases to obtain good estimates of substitution patterns in the automobile industry. We use our estimates to make out‐of‐sample predictions about important recent changes in industry structure.Publication Moment Inequalities and Their Application(The Econometric Society, 2015-01) Porter, J.; Ho, Kate; Ishii, Joy; Pakes, ArielThis paper provides conditions under which the inequality constraints generated by either single agent optimizing behavior or the best response condition of multiple agent problems can be used as a basis for estimation and inference. An application illustrates how the use of these inequality constraints can simplify the analysis of complex behavioral models.Publication Multiple Equilibria and Selection by Learning in an Applied Setting(Elsevier BV, 2009-07) Lee, Robin S.; Pakes, ArielWe explore two complementary approaches to counterfactual analysis in an empirical ATM network example with multiple equilibria. First we simply enumerate and compare the possible equilibria. Second, we examine how different learning algorithms select among them.Publication Hospital Choices, Hospital Prices, and Financial Incentives to Physicians(American Economic Association, 2014-12) Ho, Kate; Pakes, ArielWe estimate an insurer-specific preference function which rationalizes hospital referrals for privately insured births in California. The function is additively separable in: a hospital price paid by the insurer, the distance traveled, and plan-and severity-specific hospital fixed effects (capturing hospital quality). We use an inequality estimator that allows for errors in price and detailed - hospital-severity interactions and obtain markedly different results than those from a logit. The estimates indicate that insurers with more capitated physicians are more responsive to price. Capitated plans send patients further to utilize similar quality, lower-priced hospitals; but the cost-quality trade-off does not vary with capitation rates.Publication Physician Payment Reform and Hospital Referrals(American Economic Association, 2014-05) Ho, Kate; Pakes, Ariel