(2014-06-06) Llaudet, Elena; Ansolabehere, Stephen Daniel; Snyder, Jr., James; Spirling, Arthur
In developed democracies, incumbents are consistently found to have an electoral advantage over their challengers. The normative implications of this phenomenon depend on its sources. Despite a large existing literature, there is little consensus on what the sources are. In this three-paper dissertation, I find that both electoral institutions and the parties behind the incumbents appear to have a larger role than the literature has given them credit for, and that in the U.S. context, between 30 and 40 percent of the incumbents' advantage is driven by their "scaring off" serious opposition.
