Person: Rind, David
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Rind, David
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Publication Tropospheric sulfur simulation and sulfate direct radiative forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model(Wiley-Blackwell, 1999) Koch, Dorothy; Jacob, Daniel; Tegen, Ina; Rind, David; Chin, MianGlobal simulations of tropospheric sulfur are performed in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and used to calculate anthropogenic sulfate direct radiative forcing. Prognostic species are in-cloud oxidant H2O2, dimethylsulfide (DMS), methanesulfonic acid (MSA), SO2 and sulfate. Compared with most previous models (except others with prognostic H2O2), this model has relatively high anthropogenic SO2 and sulfate burden. We show that this is due partly to the depletion of the prognostic H2O2 and that moist convection delivers significant levels of SO2 to the free troposphere in polluted regions. Model agreement with surface observations is not remarkably different from previous studies. Following some previous studies, we propose that an additional in-cloud or heterogeneous oxidant is likely to improve the simulation near the surface. Our DMS source is lower than sources in previous studies, and sulfur values in remote regions are generally lower than those observed. Because of the high flux of SO2 to the free troposphere and the relatively low natural source, our model indicates a larger global anthropogenic contribution to the sulfate burden (77%) than was estimated by previous global models. Additional high-altitude observations of the sulfur species are needed for model validation and resolution of this issue. Direct radiative forcing calculations give an annual average anthropogenic sulfate forcing of −0.67 W/m2. We compare the radiative forcings due to online (hourly varying) versus offline (monthly average) sulfate and find little difference on a global average, but we do find differences as great as 10% in some regions. Thus, for example, over some polluted continental regions the forcing due to offline sulfate exceeds that of online sulfate, while over some oceanic regions the online sulfate forcing is larger. We show that these patterns are probably related to the correlation between clouds and sulfate, with positive correlations occuring over some polluted continental regions and negative correlations over high-latitude oceanic regions.Publication Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States(Wiley-Blackwell, 2004) Mickley, Loretta; Jacob, Daniel; Field, B; Rind, DavidWe examine the impact of future climate change on regional air pollution meteorology in the United States by conducting a transient climate change (1950–2052) simulation in a general circulation model (GCM) of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS). We include in the GCM two tracers of anthropogenic pollution, combustion carbon monoxide (COt) and black carbon (BCt). Sources of both tracers and the loss frequency of COt are held constant in time, while wet deposition of BCt responds to the changing climate. Results show that the severity and duration of summertime regional pollution episodes in the midwestern and northeastern United States increase significantly relative to present. Pollutant concentrations during these episodes increase by 5–10% and the mean episode duration increases from 2 to 3–4 days. These increases appear to be driven by a decline in the frequency of mid-latitude cyclones tracking across southern Canada. The cold fronts associated with these cyclones are known to provide the main mechanism for ventilation of the midwestern and northeastern United States. Mid-latitude cyclone frequency is expected to decrease in a warmer climate; such a decrease is already apparent in long-term observations. Mixing depths over the midwest and northeast increase by 100–240 m in our future-climate simulation, not enough to compensate for the increased stagnation resulting from reduced cyclone frequency.Publication Uncertainty in preindustrial abundance of tropospheric ozone: Implications for radiative forcing calculations(Wiley-Blackwell, 2001) Mickley, Loretta; Jacob, Daniel; Rind, DavidRecent model calculations of the global mean radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times fall in a relatively narrow range, from 0.3 to 0.5 W m−2. These calculations use preindustrial ozone fields that overestimate observations available from the turn of the nineteenth century. Although there may be calibration problems with the observations, uncertainties in model estimates of preindustrial natural emissions must also be considered. We show that a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry with reduced NOx emissions from lightning (1–2 Tg N yr−1) and soils (2 Tg N yr−1) and increased emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons can better reproduce the nineteenth century observations. The resulting global mean radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times is 0.72–0.80 W m−2, amounting to about half of the estimated CO2 forcing. Reduction in the preindustrial lightning source accounts for two thirds of the increase in the ozone forcing. Because there is near-total titration of OH by isoprene in the continental boundary layer of the preindustrial atmosphere, isoprene and other biogenic hydrocarbons represent significant ozone sinks. The weak or absent spring maximum in the nineteenth century observations of ozone is difficult to explain within our understanding of the natural ozone budget. Our results indicate that the uncertainty in computing radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone since preindustrial times is larger than is usually acknowledged.Publication Why Are There Large Differences Between Models in Global Budgets of Tropospheric Ozone?(American Geophysical Union, 2007) Wu, Shiliang; Mickley, Loretta; Jacob, Daniel; Logan, Jennifer; Yantosca, Robert; Rind, DavidGlobal 3-D tropospheric chemistry models in the literature show large differences in global budget terms for tropospheric ozone. The ozone production rate in the troposphere, P(O x ), varies from 2300 to 5300 Tg yr−1 across models describing the present-day atmosphere. The ensemble mean of P(O x ) in models from the post-2000 literature is 35% higher than that compiled in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). Simulations conducted with the GEOS-Chem model using two different assimilated meteorological data sets for 2001 (GEOS-3 and GEOS-4), as well as 3 years of GISS GCM meteorology, show P(O x ) values in the range 4250–4700 Tg yr−1; the differences appear mostly because of clouds. Examination of the evolution of P(O x ) over the GEOS-Chem model history shows major effects from changes in heterogeneous chemistry, the lightning NOx source, and the yield of organic nitrates from isoprene oxidation. Multivariate statistical analysis of model budgets in the literature indicates that 74% of the variance in P(O x ) across models can be explained by differences in NOx emissions, inclusion of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, mostly biogenic isoprene), and ozone influx from stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Higher NOx emissions, more widespread inclusion of NMVOC chemistry, and weaker STE in the more recent models increase ozone production; however, the effect of NMVOCs does not appear generally sensitive to the magnitude of emissions within the range typically used in models (500–900 Tg C yr−1). We find in GEOS-Chem that P(O x ) saturates when NMVOC emissions exceed 200 Tg C yr−1 because of formation of organic nitrates from isoprene oxidation, providing an important sink for NOx.