Person:

Goulder, Philip J.

HIV avoids elimination by cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) through the evolution of escape mutations. Although there is mounting evidence that these escape pathways are broadly consistent among individuals with similar human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I alleles, previous population-based studies have been limited by the inability to simultaneously account for HIV codon covariation, linkage disequilibrium among HLA alleles, and the confounding effects of HIV phylogeny when attempting to identify HLA-associated viral evolution. We have developed a statistical model of evolution, called a phylogenetic dependency network, that accounts for these three sources of confounding and identifies the primary sources of selection pressure acting on each HIV codon. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for identifying sites of HLA-mediated selection pressure and codon evolution as well as the deleterious effects of failing to account for all three sources of confounding. We then apply our approach to a large, clinically-derived dataset of Gag p17 and p24 sequences from a multicenter cohort of 1144 HIV-infected individuals from British Columbia, Canada (predominantly HIV-1 clade B) and Durban, South Africa (predominantly HIV-1 clade C). The resulting phylogenetic dependency network is dense, containing 149 associations between HLA alleles and HIV codons and 1386 associations among HIV codons. These associations include the complete reconstruction of several recently defined escape and compensatory mutation pathways and agree with emerging data on patterns of epitope targeting. The phylogenetic dependency network adds to the growing body of literature suggesting that sites of escape, order of escape, and compensatory mutations are largely consistent even across different clades, although we also identify several differences between clades. As recent case studies have demonstrated, understanding both the complexity and the consistency of immune escape has important implications for CTL-based vaccine design. Phylogenetic dependency networks represent a major step toward systematically expanding our understanding of CTL escape to diverse populations and whole viral genes.

Background: HLA class-I alleles differ in their ability to control HIV replication through cell-mediated immune responses. No consistent associations have been found between the breadth of Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes (CTL) responses and the control of HIV-1, and it is unknown whether the size or distribution of the viral proteome-wide epitope repertoire, i.e., the intrinsic ability to present fewer, more or specific viral epitopes, could affect clinical markers of disease progression. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used an epitope prediction model to identify all epitope motifs in a set of 302 HIV-1 full-length proteomes according to each individual's HLA (Human Leukocyte Antigen) genotype. The epitope repertoire, i.e., the number of predicted epitopes per HIV-1 proteome, varied considerably between HLA alleles and thus among individual proteomes. In a subgroup of 270 chronically infected individuals, we found that lower viral loads and higher CD4 counts were associated with a larger predicted epitope repertoire. Additionally, in Gag and Rev only, more epitopes were restricted by alleles associated with low viral loads than by alleles associated with higher viral loads. Conclusions/Significance: This comprehensive analysis puts forth the epitope repertoire as a mechanistic component of the multi-faceted HIV-specific CTL response. The favorable impact on markers of disease status of the propensity to present more HLA binding peptides and specific proteins gives impetus to vaccine design strategies that seek to elicit responses to a broad array of HIV-1 epitopes, and suggest a particular focus on Gag.