Person:

Kraft, Phillip

Standard statistical approaches for prioritization of variants for functional testing in fine-mapping studies either use marginal association statistics or estimate posterior probabilities for variants to be causal under simplifying assumptions. Here, we present a probabilistic framework that integrates association strength with functional genomic annotation data to improve accuracy in selecting plausible causal variants for functional validation. A key feature of our approach is that it empirically estimates the contribution of each functional annotation to the trait of interest directly from summary association statistics while allowing for multiple causal variants at any risk locus. We devise efficient algorithms that estimate the parameters of our model across all risk loci to further increase performance. Using simulations starting from the 1000 Genomes data, we find that our framework consistently outperforms the current state-of-the-art fine-mapping methods, reducing the number of variants that need to be selected to capture 90% of the causal variants from an average of 13.3 to 10.4 SNPs per locus (as compared to the next-best performing strategy). Furthermore, we introduce a cost-to-benefit optimization framework for determining the number of variants to be followed up in functional assays and assess its performance using real and simulation data. We validate our findings using a large scale meta-analysis of four blood lipids traits and find that the relative probability for causality is increased for variants in exons and transcription start sites and decreased in repressed genomic regions at the risk loci of these traits. Using these highly predictive, trait-specific functional annotations, we estimate causality probabilities across all traits and variants, reducing the size of the 90% confidence set from an average of 17.5 to 13.5 variants per locus in this data.

Endometrial cancer (EC) contributes substantially to total burden of cancer morbidity and mortality in the United States. Family history is a known risk factor for EC, thus genetic factors may play a role in EC pathogenesis. Three previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have found only one locus associated with EC, suggesting that common variants with large effects may not contribute greatly to EC risk. Alternatively, we hypothesize that rare variants may contribute to EC risk. We conducted an exome-wide association study (EXWAS) of EC using the Infinium HumanExome BeadChip in order to identify rare variants associated with EC risk. We successfully genotyped 177,139 variants in a multiethnic population of 1,055 cases and 1,778 controls from four studies that were part of the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). No variants reached global significance in the study, suggesting that more power is needed to detect modest associations between rare genetic variants and risk of EC.

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several SNPs associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) susceptibility. Vitamin D is also inversely associated with CRC risk. Methods: We examined main and joint effects of previously GWAS identified genetic markers of CRC and plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) on CRC risk in three prospective cohorts: the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS), and the Physicians' Health Study (PHS). We included 1895 CRC cases and 2806 controls with genomic DNA. We calculated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for CRC associated with additive genetic risk scores (GRSs) comprised of all CRC SNPs and subsets of these SNPs based on proximity to regions of increased vitamin D receptor binding to vitamin D response elements (VDREs), based on published ChiP-seq data. Among a subset of subjects with additional prediagnostic 25(OH)D we tested multiplicative interactions between plasma 25(OH)D and GRS's. We used fixed effects models to meta-analyze the three cohorts. Results: The per allele multivariate OR was 1.12 (95% CI, 1.06–1.19) for GRS-proximalVDRE; and 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06–1.14) for GRS-nonproxVDRE. The lowest quartile of plasma 25(OH)D compared with the highest, had a multivariate OR of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.48–0.82) for CRC. We did not observe any significant interactions between any GRSs and plasma 25(OH)D. Conclusions: We did not observe evidence for the modification of genetic susceptibility for CRC according to vitamin D status, or evidence that the effect of common CRC risk alleles differed according to their proximity to putative VDR binding sites.

There is strong evidence for a role of environmental risk factors involved in susceptibility to develop multiple keratinocyte cancers (mKCs), but whether genes are also involved in mKCs susceptibility has not been thoroughly investigated. We investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with susceptibility for mKCs. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 1,666 cases with mKCs and 1,950 cases with single KC (sKCs; controls) from Harvard cohorts (the Nurses' Health Study [NHS], NHS II, and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study) and the Framingham Heart Study was carried-out using over 8 million SNPs (stage-1). We sought to replicate the most significant statistical associations (p-value≤ 5.5x10-6) in an independent cohort of 574 mKCs and 872 sKCs from the Rotterdam Study. In the discovery stage, 40 SNPs with suggestive associations (p-value ≤5.5x10-6) were identified, with eight independent SNPs tagging all 40 SNPs. The most significant SNP was located at chromosome 9 (rs7468390; p-value = 3.92x10-7). In stage-2, none of these SNPs replicated and only two of them were associated with mKCs in the same direction in the combined meta-analysis. We tested the associations for 19 previously reported basal cell carcinoma-related SNPs (candidate gene association analysis), and found that rs1805007 (MC1R locus) was significantly associated with risk of mKCs (p-value = 2.80x10-4). Although the suggestive SNPs with susceptibility for mKCs were not replicated, we found that previously identified BCC variants may also be associated with mKC, which the most significant association (rs1805007) located at the MC1R gene.

Background: Data are limited on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Moreover, it is not known whether genetic variants identified to date also associate with risk of CHD in a prospective setting. Methods: We performed a two-stage GWAS analysis of incident myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD in a total of 64,297 individuals (including 3898 MI cases, 5465 CHD cases). SNPs that passed an arbitrary threshold of 5×10−6 in Stage I were taken to Stage II for further discovery. Furthermore, in an analysis of prognosis, we studied whether known SNPs from former GWAS were associated with total mortality in individuals who experienced MI during follow-up. Results: In Stage I 15 loci passed the threshold of 5×10−6; 8 loci for MI and 8 loci for CHD, for which one locus overlapped and none were reported in previous GWAS meta-analyses. We took 60 SNPs representing these 15 loci to Stage II of discovery. Four SNPs near QKI showed nominally significant association with MI (p-value<8.8×10−3) and three exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold when Stage I and Stage II results were combined (top SNP rs6941513: p = 6.2×10−9). Despite excellent power, the 9p21 locus SNP (rs1333049) was only modestly associated with MI (HR = 1.09, p-value = 0.02) and marginally with CHD (HR = 1.06, p-value = 0.08). Among an inception cohort of those who experienced MI during follow-up, the risk allele of rs1333049 was associated with a decreased risk of subsequent mortality (HR = 0.90, p-value = 3.2×10−3). Conclusions: QKI represents a novel locus that may serve as a predictor of incident CHD in prospective studies. The association of the 9p21 locus both with increased risk of first myocardial infarction and longer survival after MI highlights the importance of study design in investigating genetic determinants of complex disorders.

Background: Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01–1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15–2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79–1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84–0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25–2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior.

The Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), Nurses’ Health Study II (NHSII), Health Professionals Follow Up Study (HPFS) and the Physicians Health Study (PHS) have collected detailed longitudinal data on multiple exposures and traits for approximately 310,000 study participants over the last 35 years. Over 160,000 study participants across the cohorts have donated a DNA sample and to date, 20,691 subjects have been genotyped as part of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of twelve primary outcomes. However, these studies utilized six different GWAS arrays making it difficult to conduct analyses of secondary phenotypes or share controls across studies. To allow for secondary analyses of these data, we have created three new datasets merged by platform family and performed imputation using a common reference panel, the 1,000 Genomes Phase I release. Here, we describe the methodology behind the data merging and imputation and present imputation quality statistics and association results from two GWAS of secondary phenotypes (body mass index (BMI) and venous thromboembolism (VTE)). We observed the strongest BMI association for the FTO SNP rs55872725 (β = 0.45, p = 3.48x10-22), and using a significance level of p = 0.05, we replicated 19 out of 32 known BMI SNPs. For VTE, we observed the strongest association for the rs2040445 SNP (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.79–2.63, p = 2.70x10-15), located downstream of F5 and also observed significant associations for the known ABO and F11 regions. This pooled resource can be used to maximize power in GWAS of phenotypes collected across the cohorts and for studying gene-environment interactions as well as rare phenotypes and genotypes.

Background: Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using height-associated genetic variants identified in a genome-wide association study (GWAS), to evaluate the association of adult height with these cancers. Methods and Findings: A systematic review of prospective studies was conducted using the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Using meta-analyses, results obtained from 62 studies were summarized for the association of a 10-cm increase in height with cancer risk. Mendelian randomization analyses were conducted using summary statistics obtained for 423 genetic variants identified from a recent GWAS of adult height and from a cancer genetics consortium study of multiple cancers that included 47,800 cases and 81,353 controls. For a 10-cm increase in height, the summary relative risks derived from the meta-analyses of prospective studies were 1.12 (95% CI 1.10, 1.15), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05, 1.10), and 1.06 (95% CI 1.02, 1.11) for colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers, respectively. Mendelian randomization analyses showed increased risks of colorectal (odds ratio [OR] = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14, 2.18) and lung cancer (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00, 1.22) associated with each 10-cm increase in genetically predicted height. No association was observed for prostate cancer (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.92, 1.15). Our meta-analysis was limited to published studies. The sample size for the Mendelian randomization analysis of colorectal cancer was relatively small, thus affecting the precision of the point estimate. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence for a potential causal association of adult height with the risk of colorectal and lung cancers and suggests that certain genetic factors and biological pathways affecting adult height may also affect the risk of these cancers.

Background: Observational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or environmental factors. Methods: We applied Mendelian randomization to evaluate the association between BMI and risk of breast cancer occurrence using data from two large breast cancer consortia. We created a weighted BMI genetic score comprising 84 BMI-associated genetic variants to predicted BMI. We evaluated genetically predicted BMI in association with breast cancer risk using individual-level data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) (cases = 46,325, controls = 42,482). We further evaluated the association between genetically predicted BMI and breast cancer risk using summary statistics from 16,003 cases and 41,335 controls from the Discovery, Biology, and Risk of Inherited Variants in Breast Cancer (DRIVE) Project. Because most studies measured BMI after cancer diagnosis, we could not conduct a parallel analysis to adequately evaluate the association of measured BMI with breast cancer risk prospectively. Results: In the BCAC data, genetically predicted BMI was found to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.65 per 5 kg/m2 increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56–0.75, p = 3.32 × 10−10). The associations were similar for both premenopausal (OR = 0.44, 95% CI:0.31–0.62, p = 9.91 × 10−8) and postmenopausal breast cancer (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.71, p = 1.88 × 10−8). This association was replicated in the data from the DRIVE consortium (OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60–0.84, p = 1.64 × 10−7). Single marker analyses identified 17 of the 84 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in association with breast cancer risk at p < 0.05; for 16 of them, the allele associated with elevated BMI was associated with reduced breast cancer risk. Conclusions: BMI predicted by genome-wide association studies (GWAS)-identified variants is inversely associated with the risk of both pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer. The reduced risk of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with genetically predicted BMI observed in this study differs from the positive association reported from studies using measured adult BMI. Understanding the reasons for this discrepancy may reveal insights into the complex relationship of genetic determinants of body weight in the etiology of breast cancer.