Person:

Baker, Malcolm

We outline a dividend signaling model that features investors who are averse to dividend cuts. Managers with strong unobservable cash earnings separate by paying high dividends but retain enough to be likely not to fall short next period. The model is consistent with a Lintner partial-adjustment model; modal dividend changes of zero; stronger market reactions to dividend cuts than increases; comparatively infrequent and irregular repurchases; and a mechanism that does not depend on public destruction of value, which managers reject in surveys. New tests involve stronger reactions to changes from longer-maintained dividend levels and reference point currencies of ADR dividends.

Low beta stocks have offered a combination of low risk and high returns. We decompose the anomaly into micro and macro components. The micro component comes from the selection of low beta stocks. The macro component comes from the selection of low beta countries or industries. The two parts both contribute to the low beta anomaly, with important implications for the construction of managed volatility portfolios.

There is a strong link between measures of stock market performance, such as changes in Tobin's Q or past stock returns, and equity issues. Typically, this performance is thought to be a characteristic of the firm, not the CEO who happens to run the firm. In contrast to this conventional wisdom, we find that equity issues depend on changes in Q and returns to a greater extent if the current CEO was at the helm when those past returns were realized. What we label the CEO-specific Q and past return explains equity issuance, but it does not explain debt issuance, investment, or profitability. Two discontinuity analyses show that the specific share price that the current CEO inherited is an important reference point, while salient share prices prior to turnover are not. A corollary is that a firm with poor stock market performance cannot, or will not, raise new capital unless the current CEO is replaced.

We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a contrarian predictor of country-level returns. Both global and local sentiment are contrarian predictors of the time-series of cross-sectional returns within markets: When sentiment is high, future returns are low on relatively difficult to arbitrage and difficult to value stocks. Private capital flows appear to be one mechanism by which sentiment spreads across markets and forms global sentiment.

Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower beta and idiosyncratic risk. However, over the last 40 years, lower-risk banks have not had lower costs of equity (lower stock returns), consistent with a stock market anomaly previously documented in other samples. A calibration suggests that a binding 10 percentage point increase in Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets could double banks' risk premia over Treasury bills.

Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a peak price. Conversely, bidder shareholders react more negatively as the offer price is influenced upward toward a peak. Merger waves occur when high returns on the market and likely targets make it easier for bidders to offer a peak price. Parties thus appear to use recent peaks as reference points or anchors to simplify the complex tasks of valuation and negotiation.

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on bonds also predict returns on bond-like stocks; investor sentiment, a predictor of the cross section of stock returns, also predicts excess bond returns. These relationships remain in place even when bonds and stocks become "decoupled" at the index level. They are driven by a combination of effects including correlations between real cash flows on bonds and bond-like stocks, correlations between their risk-based return premia, and periodic flights to quality.

We examine the optimal weighting of four tilts in U.S. equity markets from 1968 through 2014. We define a “tilt” as a characteristic-based portfolio strategy that requires relatively low annual turnover. This is a continuum, with small size (a very persistent characteristic) at one end of the spectrum and high frequency reversal at the other. Unlike low-turnover tilts, a full history of transaction costs is essential for determining the expected return of, and hence the optimal allocation to, less persistent, more turnover-intensive characteristics. The mean-variance optimal tilts toward value, size, and profitability are roughly equal to each other and equal to the optimal low-beta tilt. Notably, the low-beta tilt is not subsumed by the other three.

We review the pricing and ownership of green bonds, whose proceeds are used for environmentally focused purposes. After presenting an overview of the literature on green securities and green bonds in particular, we summarize the US corporate and municipal green bond markets. Green municipal bonds provide the best opportunity for detailed empirical study of how pricing and ownership differ from those of ordinary bonds. Green bonds are issued at a small premium of several basis points over similar ordinary bonds except when they are issued simultaneously with ordinary bonds from the same issuer; in that situation, a premium emerges over time on the secondary market. Green bonds, especially small or nearly riskless ones, are also more closely held than ordinary bonds. These facts are consistent with a simple framework that incorporates assets with nonpecuniary utility.