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Luo, Wei

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Luo, Wei

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Author's Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.3911cab1-107e-4f63-8e15-8d8b6a25f038

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    The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak
    (2020-02-17) Luo, Wei; Majumder, Maimuna; Liu, Dianbo; Poirier, Canelle; Mandl, Kenneth; Lipsitch, Marc; Santillana, Mauricio
    A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 40,000 cases worldwide to date. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments see attenuated viral transmission (i.e., influenza). However, the role of absolute humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine province-level variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across China and find that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the North Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in COVID-19 case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.
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    Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
    (Nature Research) Lai, Shengjie; Ruktanonchai, Nick W; Zhou, Liangcai; Prosper, Olivia; Luo, Wei; Floyd, Jessica R; Wesolowski, Amy; Santillana, Mauricio; Zhang, Chi; Du, Xiangjun; Yu, Hongjie; Tatem, Andrew J
    On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic1. The outbreak containment strategies in China based on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of NPIs and their timings.3 Using epidemiological and anonymised human movement data4,5, here we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimated that there were a total of 114,325 COVID-19 cases (interquartile range 76,776 - 164,576) in mainland China as of February 29, 2020. Without NPIs, the COVID-19 cases would likely have shown a 67-fold increase (interquartile range 44 - 94), with the effectiveness of different interventions varying. The early detection and isolation of cases was estimated to have prevented more infections than travel restrictions and contact reductions, but combined NPIs achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. The lifting of travel restrictions since February 17, 2020 does not appear to lead to an increase in cases across China if the social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of 25% reduction on average through late April. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of NPIs on COVID-19 and to inform response efforts across the World.