Person:

Lallemant, Marc

Background: HIV-infected infants have high risk of death in the first two years of life if untreated. WHO guidelines recommend early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) of all HIV-exposed infants and immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected children under 24-months. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in HIV-exposed non-breastfed children in Thailand. Methods: A decision analytic model of HIV diagnosis and disease progression compared: EID using DNA PCR with immediate ART (Early-Early); or EID with deferred ART based on immune/clinical criteria (Early-Late); vs. clinical/serology based diagnosis and deferred ART (Reference). The model was populated with survival and cost data from a Thai observational cohort and the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per life-year gained (LYG) was compared against the Reference strategy. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. Results: Mean discounted life expectancy of HIV-infected children increased from 13.3 years in the Reference strategy to 14.3 in the Early-Late and 17.8 years in Early-Early strategies. The mean discounted lifetime cost was $17,335, $22,583 and $29,108, respectively. The cost-effectiveness ratio of Early-Late and Early-Early strategies was $5,149 and $2,615 per LYG, respectively as compared to the Reference strategy. The Early-Early strategy was most cost-effective at approximately half the domestic product per capita per LYG ($4,420 in Thailand 2011). The results were robust in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses including varying perinatal transmission rates. Conclusion: In Thailand, EID and immediate ART would lead to major survival benefits and is cost- effective. These findings strongly support the adoption of WHO recommendations as routine care.

Background: Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is responsible for most pediatric HIV-1 infections worldwide. It can occur during pregnancy, labor, or breastfeeding. Numerous studies have used coalescent and molecular clock methods to understand the epidemic history of HIV-1, but the timing of vertical transmission has not been studied using these methods. Taking advantage of the constant accumulation of HIV genetic variation over time and using longitudinally sampled viral sequences, we used a coalescent approach to investigate the timing of MTCT. Materials and Methods Six-hundred and twenty-two clonal env sequences from the RNA and DNA viral population were longitudinally sampled from nine HIV-1 infected mother-and-child pairs [range: 277–1034 days]. For each transmission pair, timing of MTCT was determined using a coalescent-based model within a Bayesian statistical framework. Results were compared with available estimates of MTCT timing obtained with the classic biomedical approach based on serial HIV DNA detection by PCR assays. Results: Four children were infected during pregnancy, whereas the remaining five children were infected at time of delivery. For eight out of nine pairs, results were consistent with the transmission periods assessed by standard PCR-based assay. The discordance in the remaining case was likely confused by co-infection, with simultaneous introduction of multiple maternal viral variants at the time of delivery. Conclusions: The study provided the opportunity to validate the Bayesian coalescent approach that determines the timing of MTCT of HIV-1. It illustrates the power of population genetics approaches to reliably estimate the timing of transmission events and deepens our knowledge about the dynamics of viral evolution in HIV-infected children, accounting for the complexity of multiple transmission events.