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Diaz Anadon, Laura

The United States and the world need a revolution in energy technology—a revolution that would improve the performance of our energy systems to face the challenges ahead. A dramatic increase in the pace of energy innovation is crucial to meet the challenges of: • Energy and national security, to address the dangers of undue reliance on dwindling supplies of oil increasingly concentrated in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and to limit the connection between nuclear energy and the spread of nuclear weapons; • Environmental sustainability, to reduce the wide range of environmental damages due to energy production and use, from fine particulate emissions at coal plants, to oil spills, to global climate disruption; and • Economic competitiveness, to seize a significant share of the multi-trillion-dollar clean energy technology market and improve the balance of payments by increasing exports, while reducing the hundreds of billions of dollars spent every year on importing oil. In an intensely competitive and interdependent global landscape, and in the face of large climate risks from ongoing U.S. reliance on a fossil-fuel based energy system, it is important to maintain and expand long-term investments in the energy future of the U.S. even at a time of budget stringency. It is equally necessary to think about how to improve the efficiency of those investments, through strengthening U.S. energy innovation institutions, providing expanded incentives for private-sector innovation, and seizing opportunities where international cooperation can accelerate innovation. The private sector role is key: in the United States the vast majority of the energy system is owned by private enterprises, whose innovation and technology deployment decisions drive much of the country’s overall energy systems. Efficiently utilizing government investments in energy innovation requires understanding the market incentives that drive private firms to invest in advanced energy technologies, including policy stability and predictability. The U.S. government has already launched new efforts to accelerate energy innovation. In particular, the U.S. Department of Energy is undertaking a Quadrennial Technology Review to identify the most promising opportunities and provide increased coherence and stability. Our report offers analysis and recommendations designed to accelerate the pace at which better energy technologies are discovered, developed, and deployed, and is focused in four key areas: • Designing an expanded portfolio of federal investments in energy research, development, demonstration (ERD&D), and complementary policies to catalyze the deployment of novel energy technologies; • Increasing incentives for private-sector innovation and strengthening federal-private energy innovation partnerships; • Improving the management of energy innovation institutions to maximize the results of federal investments; and • Expanding and coordinating international energy innovation cooperation to bring ideas and resources together across the globe to address these global challenges.

Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts' implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts' cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts' median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans.

This workshop report is a summary of themes discussed by five panels during a daylong workshop on “Innovation and Access to Technologies for Sustainable Development: A Global Perspective” at Harvard University on April 24,2014. The workshop brought together a diverse group of scholars to explore how the technological innovation needed for sustainable development can be promoted in ways that assure equitable access in current and future generations.

Three key themes that emerged from the workshop include:(1) The central role of power, politics and agency in analyzing technological innovation and sustainable development -an important aspect of this includes the articulation of the roles of actors and organizations within frameworks and models of innovation systems.(2) The importance of focusing both on supply-push and demand-pull mechanisms in innovation scholarship and innovation policy.(3) The need to focus on more innovation scholarship around the goals of sustainable development.

Sustainable development requires harnessing technological innovation to improve human well-being in current and future generations. However, poor, marginalized, and unborn populations too often lack the economic or political power to shape innovation processes to meet their needs. Issues arise at all stages of innovation, from invention of a technology through its selection, production, adaptation, adoption, and retirement. Three insights should inform efforts to intervene in innovation systems for sustainable development. First, innovation is not a linear process but rather a complex adaptive system involving many actors and institutions operating simultaneously from local to global levels; interventions must take this complexity into account. Second, there has been significant experimentation in mobilizing technology for sustainable development in the health, energy, and agriculture sectors, among others, but learning from past experience requires structured cross-sectoral comparisons and recognition of the socio-technical nature of innovation. Third, the current constellation of rules, norms, and incentives shaping innovation is not always aligned towards sustainable development. Past experience demonstrates that it is possible to reform these institutions, and the imperative of harnessing innovation for sustainable development makes it necessary to do so. Many actors have the power to re-orient innovation systems towards sustainable development through research, advocacy, training, convening, policymaking, and financing. We offer three proposals to begin: mobilizing global financing to invest in inventing suitable and affordable technologies to meet sustainable development objectives; developing measures to engage marginalized populations systematically through all stages of the innovation process; and establishing channels for regularized learning across domains of practice.

Policymakers in the Gulf region recognize the importance of strengthening science and technology (S&T) to boost competitiveness and economic development. A number of efforts have been made in recent years to bolster higher education, establish technology parks, and invest in regional research and development (R&D). Collaboration between local universities and the private sector is instrumental to advancing S&T and the national innovation agenda, and countries in the Gulf have the opportunity to benefit from enhancing university-industry linkages (UILs).

In order to target policies and identify strategies for increasing UILs, a better understanding about the state, nature, and output of existing linkages is necessary. To address this, our research team at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs conducted detailed surveys of faculty and administrative staff at seven leading universities in Kuwait and the UAE. The data of the surveys was analyzed in conjunction with a bibliometric analysis of publications from those seven universities. Additionally, the bibliometric data was collected for three S&T universities in Singapore and three S&T universities in Norway for comparative analysis were chosen as a comparison group to characterize UILs because of their population size, the richness of fossil fuel resources in Norway, and the relatively recent development of Singapore in building a strong innovation ecosystem compared to other OECD countries to characterize UILs.

Analysis of the surveys and bibliometrics elucidated new insights about the current state of and future opportunities for strengthening university-industry collaboration in science and engineering. This report presents key findings and concludes with several policy recommendations.

Sustainable development – improving human well-being across present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs – is a central challenge for the 21st century. Technological innovation can play an important role in moving society toward sustainable development. However, poor, marginalized, and future populations often do not fully benefit from innovation due to their lack of market or political power to influence innovation processes. As a result, current innovation systems fail to contribute as much as they might to meeting sustainable development goals. This paper focuses on how actors and institutions operating in the transnational arena can mitigate such shortfalls. To identify the most important transnational functions required to meet sustainable development needs our analysis undertook three main steps. First, we developed a framework to diagnose blockages in the global innovation system for particular technologies. This framework was built on existing theory and new empirical analysis. On the theory side, we drew from the literatures of systems dynamics; technology and sectoral innovation systems, science and technology studies, the economics of innovation, and global governance. On the empirical front, we conducted eighteen detailed case studies of technology innovation in multiple sectors relevant to sustainable development: water, energy, health, food, and manufactured goods. We use the framework to analyze our case studies in the common language of (1) technology stocks, (2) non-linear flows between stocks substantiated by specific mechanisms, and (3) characteristics of actors and socio-technical conditions (STCs) which mediate the flows between stocks. We identify blockages in the innovation system for each of the cases, diagnosing where in the innovation system flows were hindered and which specific sets of STCs and actor characteristics were associated with these blockages. Figure E.1 displays the components of our framework and how they relate.

This report recommends policies and actions to improve the return on investment the U.S. government makes in sponsoring research and development (R&D) at the Department of Energy's (DOE) seventeen National Laboratories ("Labs"). While the Labs make a unique and significant contribution to all of the Department of Energy's missions, the authors develop the idea that for the Labs to fully support DOE's energy transformation goals, their R&D management practices need to be updated to better reflect current research into innovation systems and management. They also highlight the necessity of Lab interactions with industry in order to impact the nation's energy infrastructure investment, which is, for the most part, privately held.