Person:

Brummel, Sean

Due to ethical and logistical concerns it is common for data monitoring committees to periodically monitor accruing clinical trial data to assess the safety, and possibly efficacy, of a new experimental treatment. When formalized, monitoring is typically implemented using group sequential methods. In some cases regulatory agencies have required that primary trial analyses should be based solely on the judgment of an independent review committee (IRC). The IRC assessments can produce difficulties for trial monitoring given the time lag typically associated with receiving assessments from the IRC. This results in a missing data problem wherein a surrogate measure of response may provide useful information for interim decisions and future monitoring strategies. In this paper, we present statistical tools that are helpful for monitoring a group sequential clinical trial with missing IRC data. We illustrate the proposed methodology in the case of binary endpoints under various missingness mechanisms including missing completely at random assessments and when missingness depends on the IRC’s measurement.

Background: Health benefits of postpartum antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive women with high CD4+ T-counts have not been assessed in randomized trials. Methods: Asymptomatic, HIV-positive, non-breastfeeding women with pre-ART CD4+ T-cell counts ≥ 400 cells/mm3 started on ART during pregnancy were randomized up to 42 days after delivery to continue or discontinue ART. Lopinavir/ritonavir plus tenofovir/emtricitabine was the preferred ART regimen. The sample size was selected to provide 88% power to detect a 50% reduction from an annualized primary event rate of 2.07%. A post-hoc analysis evaluated HIV/AIDS-related and World Health Organization (WHO) Stage 2 and 3 events. All analyses were intent to treat. Results: 1652 women from 52 sites in Argentina, Botswana, Brazil, China, Haiti, Peru, Thailand and the US were enrolled (1/2010-11/2014). Median age was 28 years and major racial categories were Black African (28%), Asian (25%) White (15%). Median entry CD4 count was 696 cells/mm3 (IQR 575–869), median ART exposure prior to delivery was 19 weeks (IQR 13–24) and 94% had entry HIV-1 RNA < 1000 copies/ml. After a median follow-up of 2.3 years, the primary composite endpoint rate was significantly lower than expected, and not significantly different between arms (continue arm 0.21 /100 person years(py); discontinue 0.31/100 py, Hazard ratio (HR) 0.68, 95% CI: 0.19, 2.40). WHO Stage 2 and 3 events were significantly reduced with continued ART (2.08/100 py vs. 4.36/100 py in the discontinue arm; HR 0.48, 95%CI: 0.33, 0.70). Toxicity rates did not differ significantly between arms. Among women randomized to continue ART, 189/827 (23%) had virologic failure; of the 155 with resistance testing, 103 (66%) failed without resistance to their current regimen, suggesting non-adherence. Conclusions: Overall, serious clinical events were rare among young HIV-positive post-partum women with high CD4 cell counts. Continued ART was safe and was associated with a halving of the rate of WHO 2/3 conditions. Virologic failure rates were high, underscoring the urgent need to improve adherence in this population. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00955968

Background: HLA class I molecules are ligands for killer cell immunoglobin like receptors (KIR) that control the antiviral response of natural killer (NK) cells. However, the effects of KIR and HLA (KIR/HLA) alleles on HIV disease of children have not been studied. Methods: 993 antiretroviral naïve children with symptomatic HIV infection from PACTG protocols P152 and P300 were genotyped for KIR and HLA alleles using the Luminex platform. Linear regression was used to test the association between genotypes and baseline pre-ART HIV RNA, CD4+ lymphocyte count, and cognitive score, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity and study. The interaction between genetic markers and age was investigated. To account for multiple testing the false discovery rate (FDR) was controlled at 0.05. Results: Children with the KIR2DS4ALL FULL LENGTH (KIR2DS4AFL) allele had higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts. Among children ≤2 years of age, the KIR2DS4*AFL was associated with lower plasma HIV RNA and higher cognitive index scores. KIR Cent2DS3/5_1 had lower CD4+ lymphocyte counts in children ≤2 years of age, while the presence of Tel1, Tel2DS4_2, Tel2DS4_4, Tel8, Tel2DS4_6 had higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts in all children. Presence of Cent2, Cent4 and Cent8 was associated with increased HIV RNA load in children ≤2 years. Presence of KIR3DL1+Bw4 was associated with higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts in all children. Among children >2 years old, KIR3DS1+Bw4-80I was associated with higher plasma HIV RNA, and Bw6/Bw6 was associated with lower plasma HIV RNA compared to children with KIR3DS1+Bw4-80I. Conclusions: Presented data show for the first time that specific KIR alleles independently or combined with HLA ligands are associated with HIV RNA and CD4+ lymphocyte counts in infected, antiretroviral naive children; and many of these effect estimates appear to be age dependent. These data support a role for specific KIR alleles in HIV pathogenesis in children.

Abstract The Pediatric HIV/AIDS Cohort Study (PHACS), the largest ongoing longitudinal study of perinatal HIV-infected (PHIV) and HIV-exposed, uninfected (PHEU) children in the United States, comprises the Surveillance Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy [ART] Toxicities (SMARTT) Study in PHEU children and the Adolescent Master Protocol (AMP) that includes PHIV and PHEU children ≥7 years. Although race/ethnicity is often used to assess health outcomes, this approach remains controversial and may fail to accurately reflect the backgrounds of ancestry-diverse populations as represented in the PHACS participants. In this study, we compared genetically determined ancestry (GDA) and self-reported race/ethnicity (SRR) in the PHACS cohort. GDA was estimated using a highly discriminative panel of 41 single nucleotide polymorphisms and compared to SRR. Because SRR was similar between the PHIV and PHEU, and between the AMP and SMARTT cohorts, data for all unique 1958 participants were combined. According to SRR, 63% of study participants identified as Black/African-American, 27% White, and 34% Hispanic. Using the highest percentage of ancestry/ethnicity to identify GDA, 9.5% of subjects were placed in the incorrect superpopulation based on SRR. When ≥50% or ≥75% GDA of a given superpopulation was required, 12% and 25%, respectively, of subjects were placed in the incorrect superpopulation based on SRR, and the percent of subjects classified as multiracial increased. Of 126 participants with unidentified SRR, 71% were genetically identified as Eurasian. GDA provides a more robust assessment of race/ethnicity when compared to self-report, and study participants with unidentified SRR could be assigned GDA using genetic markers. In addition, identification of continental ancestry removes the taxonomic identification of race as a variable when identifying risk for clinical outcomes.