Person: Stine, Alexander
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Stine
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Alexander
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Stine, Alexander
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Publication The Spatial Structure of the Annual Cycle in Surface Temperature: Amplitude, Phase, and Lagrangian History(American Meteorological Society, 2013) McKinnon, Karen Aline; Stine, Alexander; Huybers, PeterThe climatological annual cycle in surface air temperature, defined by its amplitude and phase lag with respect to solar insolation, is one of the most familiar aspects of the climate system. Here, the authors identify three first-order features of the spatial structure of amplitude and phase lag and explain them using simple physical models. Amplitude and phase lag 1) are broadly consistent with a land and ocean end-member mixing model but 2) exhibit overlap between land and ocean and, despite this overlap, 3) show a systematically greater lag over ocean than land for a given amplitude. Based on previous work diagnosing relative ocean or land influence as an important control on the extratropical annual cycle, the authors use a Lagrangian trajectory model to quantify this influence as the weighted amount of time that an ensemble of air parcels has spent over ocean or land. This quantity explains 84% of the space–time variance in the extratropical annual cycle, as well as features 1 and 2. All three features can be explained using a simple energy balance model with land and ocean surfaces and an advecting atmosphere. This model explains 94% of the space–time variance of the annual cycle in an illustrative midlatitude zonal band when incorporating the results of the trajectory model. The aforementioned features of annual variability in surface air temperature thus appear to be explained by the coupling of land and ocean through mean atmospheric circulation.Publication Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation(American Meteorological Society, 2012) Stine, Alexander; Huybers, PeterThe vast majority of variability in the instrumental surface temperature record is at annual frequencies. Systematic changes in the yearly Fourier component of surface temperature have been observed since the midtwentieth century, including a shift toward earlier seasonal transitions over land. Here it is shown that the variability in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature in the northern extratropics is related to Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation as represented by the northern annular mode (NAM) and the Pacific–North America mode (PNA). The phase of the seasonal cycle is most strongly influenced by changes in spring atmospheric circulation, whereas amplitude is most strongly influenced by winter circulation. A statistical model is developed based on the NAM and PNA values in these seasons and it successfully predicts the interdecadal trends in the seasonal cycle using parameters diagnosed only at interannual time scales. In particular, 70% of the observed amplitude trends and 68% of the observed phase trends are predicted over land, and the residual trends are consistent with internal variability. The strong relationship between atmospheric circulation and the structure of the seasonal cycle indicates that physical explanations for changes in atmospheric circulation also extend to explaining changes in the structure of the seasonal cycle.Publication Temperature reconstructions from tree-ring densities overestimate volcanic cooling(Wiley-Blackwell, 2014) Tingley, Martin; Stine, Alexander; Huybers, PeterThe fidelity of inferences on volcanic cooling from tree-ring density records has recently come into question, with competing claims that temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring records underestimate cooling due to an increased likelihood of missing rings or overestimate cooling due to reduced light availability accentuating the response. Here we test these competing hypotheses in the latitudes poleward of 45◦N, using the two eruptions occurring between 1850 and 1960 with large-scale Northern Hemisphere climatic effects: Novarupta (1912) and Krakatau (1883). We find that tree-ring densities overestimate postvolcanic cooling with respect to instrumental data (Probability≥0.99), with larger magnitudes of bias where growth is more limited by light availability (Prob.≥0.95). Using a methodology that allows for direct comparisons with instrumental data, our results confirm that high-latitude tree-ring densities record not only temperature but also variations in light availability.Publication Medieval Irish Chronicles Reveal Persistent Volcanic Forcing of Severe Winter Cold Events, 431–1649 CE(IOP Publishing, 2013) Ludlow, Francis Michael; Stine, Alexander; Leahy, Paul; Murphy, Enda; Mayewski, Paul A.; Taylor, David; Killen, James; Baillie, Michael G. L.; Hennessy, Mark; Kiely, GerardExplosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. However, much of our knowledge of the climatic impact of volcanism derives from the limited number of eruptions that have occurred in the modern period during which meteorological instrumental records are available. We present a uniquely long historical record of severe short-term cold events from Irish chronicles, 431–1649 CE, and test the association between cold event occurrence and explosive volcanism. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level, revealing both the consistency of response to explosive volcanism for Ireland's climatically sensitive Northeast Atlantic location and the large proportional contribution of volcanism to historic cold event frequencies here. Our results expose, moreover, the extent to which volcanism has impacted winter-season climate for the region, and can help to further resolve the complex spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere winter-season cooling versus warming after major eruptions.Publication Implications of Liebig’s Law of the Minimum for Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Climate(IOP Publishing, 2017-11-01) Stine, Alexander; Huybers, PeterA basic principle of ecology, known as Liebig's Law of the Minimum, is that plant growth reflects the strongest limiting environmental factor. This principle implies that a limiting environmental factor can be inferred from historical growth and, in dendrochronology, such reconstruction is generally achieved by averaging collections of standardized tree-ring records. Averaging is optimal if growth reflects a single limiting factor and noise but not if growth also reflects locally variable stresses that intermittently limit growth. In this study a collection of Arctic tree ring records is shown to follow scaling relationships that are inconsistent with the signal-plus-noise model of tree growth but consistent with Liebig's Law acting at the local level. Also consistent with law-of-the-minimum behavior is that reconstructions based on the least-stressed trees in a given year better-follow variations in temperature than typical approaches where all tree-ring records are averaged. Improvements in reconstruction skill occur across all frequencies, with the greatest increase at the lowest frequencies. More comprehensive statistical-ecological models of tree growth may offer further improvement in reconstruction skill.Publication Global Surface Temperature Response to 11-Yr Solar Cycle Forcing Consistent with General Circulation Model Results(American Meteorological Society, 2021-04) Amdur, Ted; Stine, Alexander; Huybers, PeterThe 11-year solar-cycle is associated with a roughly 1 W m-2 trough-to-peak variation in total solar irradiance and is expected to produce a global temperature response. The amplitude of this response is, however, contentious. Empirical estimates of global surface temperature sensitivity to solar forcing range up to 0.18 K [W m-2]-1. In comparison, best estimates from general circulation models forced by solar variability range between 0.03-0.07 K [W m-2]-1, prompting speculation that physical mechanisms not included in general circulation models may amplify responses to solar variability. Using a lagged multiple linear regression method, we find a sensitivity of global- average surface temperature ranging between 0.02-0.09 K [W m-2]-1, depending on which predictor and temperature datasets are used. On the basis of likelihood maximization, we give a best estimate of the sensitivity to solar variability of 0.05 K [W m-2]-1 (0.03-0.09 K [W m-2]-1, 95% c.i.). Furthermore, through updating a widely-used compositing approach to incorporate recent observations, we revise prior global temperature sensitivity estimates of 0.12 to 0.18 K [W m-2]-1 downwards to 0.07 to 0.10 K [W m-2]-1. The finding of a most likely global temperature response of 0.05 K [W m-2]-1 supports a relatively modest role for solar cycle variability in driving global surface temperature variations over the 20th century and removes the need to invoke processes that amplify the response relative to that exhibited in general circulation mod els.