Person: Record, Sydne
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Sydne
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Record, Sydne
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Publication Should Species Distribution Models Account for Spatial Autocorrelation? A Test of Model Projections Across Eight Millennia of Climate Change(Wiley, 2013-03-12) Record, Sydne; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Finley, Andrew O.; Veloz, Sam; Ellison, AaronAim: The distributions of many organisms are spatially autocorrelated, but it is unclear whether including spatial terms in species distribution models (SDMs) improves projections of species distributions under climate change. We provide one of the first comparative evaluations of the ability of a purely spatial SDM, a purely non-spatial SDM and a SDM that combines spatial and environmental information to project species distributions across eight millennia of climate change. Location: Eastern North America. Methods: To distinguish between the importance of climatic versus spatial explanatory variables we fit three Bayesian SDMs to modern occurrence data for Fagus and Tsuga, two tree genera whose distributions can be reliably inferred from fossil pollen: a spatially varying intercept model, a non-spatial model with climatic variables and a spatially varying intercept plus climate model. Using palaeoclimate data with a high temporal resolution, we hindcasted the SDMs in 1000-year time steps for 8000 years, and compared model projections with palynological data for the same periods. Results: For both genera, spatial SDMs provided better fits to the calibration data, more accurate predictions of a hold-out validation dataset of modern trees and higher variance in current predictions and hindcasted projections than non-spatial SDMs. Performance of non-spatial and spatial SDMs according to the area under the receiver operating curve varied by genus. For both genera, false negative rates between non-spatial and spatial models were similar, but spatial models had lower false positive rates than non-spatial models. Main conclusions: The inclusion of computationally demanding spatial random effects in SDMs may be warranted when ecological or evolutionary processes prevent taxa from shifting their distributions or when the cost of false positives is high.Publication Speeding Up Ecological and Evolutionary Computations in R; Essentials of High Performance Computing for Biologists(Public Library of Science, 2015) Visser, Marco D.; McMahon, Sean M.; Merow, Cory; Dixon, Philip M.; Record, Sydne; Jongejans, EelkeComputation has become a critical component of research in biology. A risk has emerged that computational and programming challenges may limit research scope, depth, and quality. We review various solutions to common computational efficiency problems in ecological and evolutionary research. Our review pulls together material that is currently scattered across many sources and emphasizes those techniques that are especially effective for typical ecological and environmental problems. We demonstrate how straightforward it can be to write efficient code and implement techniques such as profiling or parallel computing. We supply a newly developed R package (aprof) that helps to identify computational bottlenecks in R code and determine whether optimization can be effective. Our review is complemented by a practical set of examples and detailed Supporting Information material (S1–S3 Texts) that demonstrate large improvements in computational speed (ranging from 10.5 times to 14,000 times faster). By improving computational efficiency, biologists can feasibly solve more complex tasks, ask more ambitious questions, and include more sophisticated analyses in their research.Publication Projecting Global Mangrove Species and Community Distributions under Climate Change(Ecological Society of America, 2013) Record, Sydne; Charney, N. D.; Zakaria, R. M.; Ellison, AaronGiven the multitude of ecosystem services provided by mangroves, it is important to understand their potential responses to global climate change. Extensive reviews of the literature and manipulative experiments suggest that mangroves will be impacted by climate change, but few studies have tested these predictions over large scales using statistical models. We provide the first example of applying species and community distribution models (SDMs and CDMs, respectively) to coastal mangroves worldwide. Species distributions were modeled as ensemble forecasts using BIOMOD. Distributions of mangrove communities with high species richness were modeled in three ways: as the sum of the separate SDM outputs, as binary hotspots (with >3 species) using a generalized linear model, and continuously using a general boosted model. Individual SDMs were projected for 12 species with sufficient data and CDMs were projected for 30 species into 2080 using global climate model outputs and a range of sea-level rise projections. Species projected to shift their ranges polewards by at least 2 degrees of latitude consistently experience a decrease in the amount of suitable coastal area available to them. Central America and the Caribbean are forecast to lose more mangrove species than other parts of the world. We found that the extent and grain size, at which continuous CDM outputs are examined, independent of the grain size at which the models operate, can dramatically influence the number of pseudo-absences needed for optimal parameterization. The SDMs and CDMs presented here provide a first approximation of how mangroves will respond to climate change given simple correlative relationships between occurrence records and environmental data. Additional, precise georeferenced data on mangrove localities and concerted efforts to collect data on ecological processes across large-scale climatic gradients will enable future research to improve upon these correlative models.Publication Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass(Public Library of Science, 2016) Goring, Simon J.; Mladenoff, David J.; Cogbill, Charles; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Dietze, Michael C.; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S.; Williams, John W.Background: EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management.Publication Response of Macroarthropod Assemblages to the Loss of Hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), a Foundation Species(Ecological Society of America, 2011) Sackett, Tara E.; Record, Sydne; Bewick, Sharon; Baiser, Benjamin H.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Ellison, AaronIn eastern North American forests, eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) is a foundation species. As hemlock is lost from forests due to the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) and pre-emptive salvage logging, the structure of assemblages of species associated with hemlock is expected to change. We manipulated hemlock canopy structure at hectare scales to investigate the effects of hemlock death on assemblages of ants, beetles, and spiders in a New England forest. Relative to reference hemlock stands, both in situ death of hemlock and logging and removal of hemlock altered composition and diversity of beetles and spiders, and logging increased the species richness and evenness of ant assemblages. Species composition of ant assemblages in disturbed habitats was non-random relative to the regional species pool, but we found no evidence that interspecific competition shaped the structure of ant, beetle, or spider assemblages, in either manipulated or intact forest stands. Environmental filtering by hemlock appears to maintain low levels of species richness and evenness in forest stands, suggesting that the loss of hemlock due to the hemlock woolly adelgid or human activities will not likely lead to extirpations of ant, beetle, or spider species at local scales.