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Eicke, Laima

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Eicke

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Laima

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Eicke, Laima

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    Green Hydrogen Industrial Value Chains: Geopolitical and Market Implications
    (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2023-02) De Blasio, Nicola; Eicke, Laima
    The global transition to a low-carbon economy and adopting the needed clean energy technologies at scale will significantly impact existing value chains and transform production-to-consumption lifecycles. Regulatory and business models will need to rapidly evolve to manage the resulting substantial cost challenges and dramatic shifts in stakeholder interactions while continuing to create value. Green hydrogen is likely to play a pivotal role in a carbon-free future, as its adoption will enable the decarbonization of energy-intensive industrial processes whose emissions are hard to abate through simple electrification—such as steel and cement production. However, to take advantage of the economic opportunities created by its adoption at scale, countries will need to rethink the roles they could play in a new energy landscape and define strategic industrial policies accordingly. Our research shows how successful industrial policies must reflect a country’s potential value chain positioning in future green hydrogen markets and elucidates macro geopolitical trends that could reshape international relations as countries compete for industrial leadership, market shares, and opportunities for job creation.
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    The Future of Green Hydrogen Value Chains: Geopolitical and Market Implications in the Industrial Sector
    (Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2022-10) Eicke, Laima; De Blasio, Nicola
    The global transition to a low-carbon economy will significantly impact existing energy value chains and transform the production to consumption lifecycle, dramatically altering interactions among stakeholders. Thanks to its versatility, green hydrogen is gaining economic and political momentum and could play a critical role in a carbon-free future. Furthermore, its adoption will be critical for decarbonizing industrial processes at scale, especially hard-to-abate ones such as steel and cement production. Overall, hydrogen demand is expected to grow by 700% by 2050 (BP, 2019). Currently, the two central challenges to green hydrogen adoption and use at scale are limited infrastructure availability and cost. While recent spikes in fossil fuel prices due to the war in Ukraine have made green hydrogen cost-competitive with blue and grey hydrogen (Radowitz, 2022), from a long-term perspective, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts a decline in green hydrogen costs by up to 85% by 2050 (IRENA, 2020), making it the dominant hydrogen form (IRENA, 2022).