Person:

Wang, Charles

Under fairly general assumptions, expected stock returns are a linear combination of two accounting fundamentals―book to market and ROE. Empirical estimates based on this relation predict the cross section of out-of-sample returns in 26 of 29 international equity markets, with a highly significant average slope coefficient of 1.05. In sharp contrast, standard factor-model-based proxies fail to exhibit predictive power internationally. We show analytically and empirically that the importance of ROE in forecasting returns depends on the quality of accounting information. Overall, a tractable accounting-based valuation model provides a unifying framework for obtaining reliable proxies of expected returns worldwide.

We study how a stock index can affect corporate behavior by serving as a source of prestige. After decades of low corporate profitability in Japan, the JPX-Nikkei400 index was introduced in 2014. The index selected 400 large and liquid firms deemed to be best-performing in terms of profitability annually; membership was considered highly prestigious. We document that index-inclusion incentives led firms to increase return on equity (ROE) proportionally by 35% on average, through higher margins, efficiency, or shareholder payouts, depending on where firms had “slack,” but not through changing investments or accruals. These incentives are driven by the prestige associated with the index rather than capital market benefits. Back-of-envelope estimates suggest that the index accounted for 23% of the average increase in aggregate annual earnings over our sample period and a 3% increase in aggregate market capitalization. These findings highlight a novel mechanism through which long-standing corporate behaviors can be transformed.

This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the U.S. We adapt and extend the log-linear and present-value (LPV) framework—combining an accounting valuation anchor, its expected growth, and market prices—for estimating ERPs internationally, and implement a correction for the use of stale accounting data. An LPV ERP anchored on the book value of equity is positively associated with future returns in 26 of 29 equity markets, and largely subsumes the predictive ability of a broad set of firm characteristics previously shown to be associated with expected returns.