Person:

McGovern, Mark

There is a growing literature which documents the importance of early life environment for outcomes across the life cycle. Research, including studies based on Irish data, demonstrates that those who experience better childhood conditions go on to be wealthier and healthier adults. Therefore, inequalities at birth and in childhood shape inequality in wellbeing in later life, and the historical evolution of the mortality and morbidity of children born in Ireland is important for understanding the current status of the Irish population. In this paper, I describe these patterns by reviewing the existing literature on infant health in Ireland over the course of the 20th century. Up to the 1950s, infant mortality in Ireland (both North and South) was substantially higher than in other developed countries, with a large penalty for those born in urban areas. The subsequent reduction in this penalty, and the sustained decline in infant death rates, occurred later than would be expected from the experience in other contexts. Using records from the Rotunda Lying-in Hospital in Dublin, I discuss sources of disparities in stillbirth in the early 1900s. Despite impressive improvements in death rates since that time, a comparison with those born at the end of the century reveals that Irish children continue to be born unequal. Evidence from studies which track people across the life course, for example research on the returns to birthweight, suggests that the economic cost of this early life inequality is substantial.

Background. South African (SA) national HIV seroprevalence estimates are of crucial policy relevance in the country, and for the worldwide HIV response. However, the most recent nationally representative HIV test survey in 2012 had 22% test non-participation, leaving the potential for substantial bias in current seroprevalence estimates, even after controlling for selection on observed factors.Objective. To re-estimate national HIV prevalence in SA, controlling for bias due to selection on both observed and unobserved factors in the 2012 SA National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey.Methods. We jointly estimated regression models for consent to test and HIV status in a Heckman-type bivariate probit framework. As selection variable, we used assigned interviewer identity, a variable known to predict consent but highly unlikely to be associated with interviewees’ HIV status. From these models, we estimated the HIV status of interviewed participants who did not test.Results. Of 26 710 interviewed participants who were invited to test for HIV, 21.3% of females and 24.3% of males declined. Interviewer identity was strongly correlated with consent to test for HIV; declining a test was weakly associated with HIV serostatus. Our HIV prevalence estimates were not significantly different from those using standard methods to control for bias due to selection on observed factors: 15.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 12.1 - 18.6) v. 14.5% (95% CI 12.8 - 16.3) for 15 - 49-year-old males; 23.3% (95% CI 21.7 - 25.8) v. 23.2% (95% CI 21.3 - 25.1) for 15 - 49-year-old females.Conclusion. The most recent SA HIV prevalence estimates are robust under the strongest available test for selection bias due to missing data. Our findings support the reliability of inferences drawn from such data.