Person:

Wang, Yan

Climate change may affect human health, particularly for elderly individuals who are vulnerable to temperature changes. While many studies have investigated the acute effects of heat, only a few have dealt with the chronic ones. We have examined the effects of seasonal temperatures on survival of the elderly in the Southeastern USA, where a large fraction of subpopulation resides. We found that both seasonal mean temperature and its standard deviation (SD) affected long-term survival among the 13 million Medicare beneficiaries (aged 65+) in this region during 2000–2013. A 1 °C increase in summer mean temperature corresponded to an increase of 2.5% in death rate. Whereas, 1 °C increase in winter mean temperature was associated with a decrease of 1.5%. Increases in seasonal temperature SD also influence mortality. We decomposed seasonal mean temperature and its temperature SD into long-term geographic contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies within ZIP code. Effect modifications by different subgroups were also examined to find out whether certain individuals are more vulnerable. Our findings will be critical to future efforts assessing health risks related to the future climate change.

Background: Many studies have reported the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and increased risk of death. However, to our knowledge, none has used a causal modeling approach or controlled for long-term temperature exposure, and few have used a general population sample. Objective: We estimated the causal effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality and tested the effect modifications by seasonal temperatures, census tract–level socioeconomic variables, and county-level health conditions. Methods: We applied a variant of the difference-in-differences approach, which serves to approximate random assignment of exposure across the population and hence estimate a causal effect. Specifically, we estimated the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality while controlling for geographical differences using dummy variables for each census tract in New Jersey, a state-wide time trend using dummy variables for each year from 2004 to 2009, and mean summer and winter temperatures for each tract in each year. This approach assumed that no variable changing differentially over time across space other than seasonal temperatures confounded the association. Results: For each interquartile range (2 μg/m3) increase in annual PM2.5, there was a 3.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2, 5.9%] increase in all natural-cause mortality for the whole population, with similar results for people > 65 years old [3.5% (95% CI: 0.1, 6.9%)] and people ≤ 65 years old [3.1% (95% CI: –1.8, 8.2%)]. The mean summer temperature and the mean winter temperature in a census tract significantly modified the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality. We observed a higher percentage increase in mortality associated with PM2.5 in census tracts with more blacks, lower home value, or lower median income. Conclusions: Under the assumption of the difference-in-differences approach, we identified a causal effect of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality that was modified by seasonal temperatures and ecological socioeconomic status. Citation: Wang Y, Kloog I, Coull BA, Kosheleva A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD. 2016. Estimating causal effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality in New Jersey. Environ Health Perspect 124:1182–1188; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409671

Background: Heat stroke is a serious heat-related illness, especially among older adults. However, little is known regarding the spatiotemporal variation of heat stroke admissions during heat waves and what factors modify the adverse effects. Methods: We conducted a large-scale national study among 23.5 million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries per year residing in 1,916 US counties during 1999–2010. Heat wave days, defined as a period of at least two consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 97th percentile of that county’s temperatures, were matched to non-heat wave days by county and week. We fitted random-effects Poisson regression models to estimate the relative risk (RR) of heat stroke admissions on a heat wave day as compared to a matched non-heat wave day. A variety of effect modifiers were tested including individual-level covariates, community-level covariates, meteorological conditions, and the intensity and duration of the heat wave event. Results: The RR declined substantially from 71.0 (21.3–236.2) in 1999 to 3.5 (1.9–6.5) in 2010, and was highest in the northeast and lowest in the west north central regions of the US. We found a lower RR among counties with higher central air conditioning (AC) prevalence. More severe and longer-lasting heat waves had higher RRs. Conclusions: Heat stroke hospitalizations associated with heat waves declined dramatically over time, indicating increased resilience to extreme heat among older adults. Considerable risks, however, still remain through 2010, which could be addressed through public health interventions at a regional scale to further increase central AC and monitoring heat waves. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-016-0167-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Initially transparent organic particulate matter (PM) can become shades of light-absorbing brown via atmospheric particle-phase chemical reactions. The production of nitrogen-containing compounds is one important pathway for browning. Semisolid or solid physical states of organic PM might, however, have sufficiently slow diffusion of reactant molecules to inhibit browning reactions. Herein, organic PM of secondary organic material (SOM) derived from toluene, a common SOM precursor in anthropogenically affected environments, was exposed to ammonia at different values of relative humidity (RH). The production of light-absorbing organonitrogen imines from ammonia exposure, detected by mass spectrometry and ultraviolet–visible spectrophotometry, was kinetically inhibited for RH < 20% for exposure times of 6 min to 24 h. By comparison, from 20% to 60% RH organonitrogen production took place, implying ammonia uptake and reaction. Correspondingly, the absorption index k across 280 to 320 nm increased from 0.012 to 0.02, indicative of PM browning. The k value across 380 to 420 nm increased from 0.001 to 0.004. The observed RH-dependent behavior of ammonia uptake and browning was well captured by a model that considered the diffusivities of both the large organic molecules that made up the PM and the small reactant molecules taken up from the gas phase into the PM. Within the model, large-molecule diffusivity was calculated based on observed SOM viscosity and evaporation. Small-molecule diffusivity was represented by the water diffusivity measured by a quartz-crystal microbalance. The model showed that the browning reaction rates at RH < 60% could be controlled by the low diffusivity of the large organic molecules from the interior region of the particle to the reactive surface region. The results of this study have implications for accurate modeling of atmospheric brown carbon production and associated influences on energy balance.