Person:

Rowe, Peter

The effectiveness of urban master plans in limiting development in a disaster-prone area of China was empirically investigated by measuring cities’ land-cover changes against their master plans. If a master plan serves as guidance for urban polices that reduce property loss from earthquakes, floods, landslides,land subsidence, and rises in sea level, it will substantially limit urban development in areas at risk from environmental hazards. An environmental risk map weighted toward valuable forms of land cover was generated using geospatial databases of China’s Yangtze River Delta region. Based on this data, the effects of five master plan measures—ring-road patterns, block size, the area of urban built-up lands, the locations of industrial sites, and preservation zoning—were tested using the multiple regression method. Cities showing a high degree of compliance, in particular with preservation zoning, had a smaller amountof urban land located in high-risk zones, on average, by 14 km2. Among the top ten cities exposed to disproportionately high risks, eight were towns and only two were cities like Huzhou and Kunshan.

As globalization proceeds, transnational property development is increasing. Especially in emerging markets, foreign developers’ influence in changing the local landscape is becoming significant. In this research, the behavioral patterns of foreign developers in the apartment market of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam were identified. To understand the dynamics of foreign developers, the types of products that were being created, where the investments were located, and the differences in development strategies adopted by foreign developers in comparison to domestic counterparts were identified. To accomplish this, data on apartment projects and statistics were collected, and a series of spatial analyses including sieve mapping, histogram analysis, factor analysis and logistic regression was conducted. In addition, closer examination was made of specific cases to understand the dynamics among foreign and domestic developers, also allowing the identification of some regularities in the patterns of foreign developments. Besides presenting detailed results, this paper also seeks to account for the conditions that appear to have generated these patterns and characteristics.

Outward expansion of urban lands in the developing nations is often associated with a substantial loss of environmental resources such as forests, wetlands, freshwater and cash crop fields. Yet, determining how different aspects of urbanisation – such as city population size and spread pattern of built-up lands – contribute to the cumulative loss of resources remains controversial. In this study, data sets were constructed describing changes to land cover across 65,200 grid cells at 1 km2 spatial resolution for China’s Changjiang Delta Region over the past 60 years. The results showed that the region lost 12.2% of total resource sites. The distribution of resource degradation showed a highly dispersed pattern and was not confined to a few intense areas associated with large cities. No empirical evidence was found that city population size alone accurately predicts the distribution of resource loss. Very large cities (N = 4) contributed 35% to the total loss, demonstrating impacts similar to those of much more scattered towns (N = 230). Urban expansion of large cities may lead to extensive resource loss; however, a set of non-linear mechanisms, such as the diminishing effects of per-unit area urban spread on resources and interactions between urban patterns and the size of urban spread, can also play a significant role in downsizing the negative effects of large cities on resource sites. Thus, effective urban policies should carefully weigh the cumulative urban spread mechanisms of both large and small cities responsible for spatially dispersed degradation of environmental resources.

The formation of ‘Urban Networks’ has become a wide-spread phenomenon around the world. In the study of metropolitan regions, there are competing or diverging views about management and control of environmental and land-use factors as well as about scales and arrangements of settlements. Especially in China, these matters alongside of regulatory aspects, infrastructure applications, and resource allocations, are important because of population concentrations and the overlapping of urban areas with other land resources. On the other hand, the increasing sophistication of models operating on iterative computational power and widely-available spatial information and analytical techniques make it possible to simulate and investigate the spatial distribution of urban territories at a regional scale. This research applies a scenario-based Cellular Automata model to a case study of the Changjiang Delta Region, which produces useful and predictive scenario-based projections within the region, using quantitative methods and baseline conditions that address issues of regional urban development. The contribution of the research includes the improvement of computer simulation of urban growth, the application of urban form and other indices to evaluate complex urban conditions, and a heightened understanding of the performance of an urban network in the Changjiang Delta Region composed of big, medium, and small-sized cities and towns.

Urban intensity, in this paper, is measured by four related concepts: compactness, diversity, density, and connectivity. Together they lead to a single idea when considering spatial distributions potentially in a virtuous manner with regard to resource consumption, economic opportunity, social integration and environmental performance. The methodologies applied here included Moran's I, Shannon's index entropy, and accessibility isotimelines, which were then applied to real case scenarios in 20 towns in Zhejiang Province, selected based on their economic performances, population sizes, and geographical locations. Further inspection discovered that density, an outcome of urban form, is highly correlated to compactness, leading to its elimination. The results showed that among the varying spatial arrangements of urban activities, building footprints and infrastructural elements characterized by monocentric centers of use inscribed with well-defined and relatively uniform grids of streets and related networks, alongside of relatively integrated zones of use, seemed to perform best with regard to urban intensity. At the other end of the morphological spectrum, towns with sharp separations of uses and zones of development, often resulting in overall bifurcation of a town's spatial layout, performed less well. Also, linear forms for small towns were less favorable.

In February 2016, China’s State Council released a set of guidelines representing a change in the country’s approach toward neighbourhood design: to move away from superblock neighbourhoods and create a finer network of urban blocks and streets. The paper traces the circumstances that prompted this change, drawing on a comparative review of international literature and practice, and explores the opportunities and challenges for urban design. While modifications of the superblock are somewhat overdue, this current mode of organization should not be entirely abandoned. The suggestions and overall blueprint warrant a more circumspect approach and should be adopted with discretion.

Development of urban networks of cities and towns has received attention including discussions of tensions between population concentrations and overlaps with environmentally sensitive and disaster-prone areas. Moreover, certain development in broad regions of China, such as its deltas, has become a subject of debate. Contrary to some assumptions, this development within places like the Changjiang Delta (also known as the Yangtze River Delta) has proceeded in a relatively incremental manner. However, at this juncture, controlled development of larger cities, like Shanghai, has shifted to more conventional urbanization pathways forward involving larger city expansions. Nevertheless, further urban growth management appears to depend on development and maintenance of a well-balanced network of large, medium, and small-scaled cities and towns. An important aspect of this development involves definition of the Changjiang Delta region itself, and in particular, alongside its likely further economic performance. To these ends, a scenario based Cellular Automata model of spatial distribution is deployed, reflecting separate thematic projections. A baseline for economic performance is developed, incorporating measures of fixed asset investment in urban service, revenue from urban maintenance, and Gross Domestic Product. Revelation of a well-performing network involves spatial distribution of development at various scales, and in various concentrations within the region, moreover, location of this development, largely perpendicular to well-travelled corridors, appears as a preferable outcome, contrary to earlier depictions along the major transportation corridors.