Person:

Dashevsky, Inna

Background: Drug adverse event (AE) signal detection using the Gamma Poisson Shrinker (GPS) is commonly applied in spontaneous reporting. AE signal detection using large observational health plan databases can expand medication safety surveillance. Methods: Using data from nine health plans, we conducted a pilot study to evaluate the implementation and findings of the GPS approach for two antifungal drugs, terbinafine and itraconazole, and two diabetes drugs, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone. We evaluated 1676 diagnosis codes grouped into 183 different clinical concepts and four levels of granularity. Several signaling thresholds were assessed. GPS results were compared to findings from a companion study using the identical analytic dataset but an alternative statistical method—the tree-based scan statistic (TreeScan). Results: We identified 71 statistical signals across two signaling thresholds and two methods, including closely-related signals of overlapping diagnosis definitions. Initial review found that most signals represented known adverse drug reactions or confounding. About 31% of signals met the highest signaling threshold. Conclusions: The GPS method was successfully applied to observational health plan data in a distributed data environment as a drug safety data mining method. There was substantial concordance between the GPS and TreeScan approaches. Key method implementation decisions relate to defining exposures and outcomes and informed choice of signaling thresholds.

Background: Gaps in disease surveillance capacity, particularly for emerging infections and bioterrorist attack, highlight a need for efficient, real time identification of diseases. Methods: We studied automated records from 1996 through 1999 of approximately 250,000 health plan members in greater Boston. Results: We identified 152,435 lower respiratory infection illness visits, comprising 106,670 episodes during 1,143,208 person-years. Three diagnoses, cough (ICD9CM 786.2), pneumonia not otherwise specified (ICD9CM 486) and acute bronchitis (ICD9CM 466.0) accounted for 91% of these visits, with expected age and sex distributions. Variation of weekly occurrences corresponded closely to national pneumonia and influenza mortality data. There was substantial variation in geographic location of the cases. Conclusion: This information complements existing surveillance programs by assessing the large majority of episodes of illness for which no etiologic agents are identified. Additional advantages include: a) sensitivity, uniformity and efficiency, since detection of events does not depend on clinicians' to actively report diagnoses, b) timeliness, the data are available within a day of the clinical event; and c) ease of integration into automated surveillance systems. These features facilitate early detection of conditions of public health importance, including regularly occurring events like seasonal respiratory illness, as well as unusual occurrences, such as a bioterrorist attack that first manifests as respiratory symptoms. These methods should also be applicable to other infectious and non-infectious conditions. Knowledge of disease patterns in real time may also help clinicians to manage patients, and assist health plan administrators in allocating resources efficiently.

The advent of domestic bioterrorism has emphasized the need for enhanced detection of clusters of acute illness. We describe a monitoring system operational in eastern Massachusetts, based on diagnoses obtained from electronic records of ambulatory-care encounters. Within 24 hours, ambulatory and telephone encounters recording patients with diagnoses of interest are identified and merged into major syndrome groups. Counts of new episodes of illness, rates calculated from health insurance records, and estimates of the probability of observing at least this number of new episodes are reported for syndrome surveillance. Census tracts with unusually large counts are identified by comparing observed with expected syndrome frequencies. During 1996–1999, weekly counts of new cases of lower respiratory syndrome were highly correlated with weekly hospital admissions. This system complements emergency room- and hospital-based surveillance by adding the capacity to rapidly identify clusters of illness, including potential bioterrorism events.

Objective: To perform sample size calculations when using tree-based scan statistics in longitudinal observational databases. Methods: Tree-based scan statistics enable data mining on epidemiologic datasets where thousands of disease outcomes are organized into hierarchical tree structures with automatic adjustment for multiple testing. We show how to evaluate the statistical power of the unconditional and conditional Poisson versions. The null hypothesis is that there is no increase in the risk for any of the outcomes. The alternative is that one or more outcomes have an excess risk. We varied the excess risk, total sample size, frequency of the underlying event rate, and the level of across-the-board health care utilization. We also quantified the reduction in statistical power resulting from specifying a risk window that was too long or too short. Results: For 500,000 exposed people, we had at least 98 percent power to detect an excess risk of 1 event per 10,000 exposed for all outcomes. In the presence of potential temporal confounding due to across-the-board elevations of health care utilization in the risk window, the conditional tree-based scan statistic controlled type I error well, while the unconditional version did not. Discussion: Data mining analyses using tree-based scan statistics expand the pharmacovigilance toolbox, ensuring adequate monitoring of thousands of outcomes of interest while controlling for multiple hypothesis testing. These power evaluations enable investigators to design and optimize implementation of retrospective data mining analyses.

Abstract The self-controlled tree-temporal scan statistic—a new signal-detection method—can evaluate whether any of a wide variety of health outcomes are temporally associated with receipt of a specific vaccine, while adjusting for multiple testing. Neither health outcomes nor postvaccination potential periods of increased risk need be prespecified. Using US medical claims data in the Food and Drug Administration’s Sentinel system, we employed the method to evaluate adverse events occurring after receipt of quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (4vHPV). Incident outcomes recorded in emergency department or inpatient settings within 56 days after first doses of 4vHPV received by 9- through 26.9-year-olds in 2006–2014 were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, diagnosis codes and analyzed by pairing the new method with a standard hierarchical classification of diagnoses. On scanning diagnoses of 1.9 million 4vHPV recipients, 2 statistically significant categories of adverse events were found: cellulitis on days 2–3 after vaccination and “other complications of surgical and medical procedures” on days 1–3 after vaccination. Cellulitis is a known adverse event. Clinically informed investigation of electronic claims records of the patients with “other complications” did not suggest any previously unknown vaccine safety problem. Considering that thousands of potential short-term adverse events and hundreds of potential risk intervals were evaluated, these findings add significantly to the growing safety record of 4vHPV.