Person:

Liu, Yang-Yu

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the “reflection effect”. People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called “loss aversion”. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of the previous studies have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon, which are essential in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the impact of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon. Moreover, we introduce three novel behavioral metrics to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behavior.

Controlling large natural and technological networks is an outstanding challenge. It is typically neither feasible nor necessary to control the entire network, prompting us to explore target control: the efficient control of a preselected subset of nodes. We show that the structural controllability approach used for full control overestimates the minimum number of driver nodes needed for target control. Here we develop an alternate ‘k-walk’ theory for directed tree networks, and we rigorously prove that one node can control a set of target nodes if the path length to each target node is unique. For more general cases, we develop a greedy algorithm to approximate the minimum set of driver nodes sufficient for target control. We find that degree heterogeneous networks are target controllable with higher efficiency than homogeneous networks and that the structure of many real-world networks are suitable for efficient target control.

A dynamical system is controllable if by imposing appropriate external signals on a subset of its nodes, it can be driven from any initial state to any desired state in finite time. Here we study the impact of various network characteristics on the minimal number of driver nodes required to control a network. We find that clustering and modularity have no discernible impact, but the symmetries of the underlying matching problem can produce linear, quadratic or no dependence on degree correlation coefficients, depending on the nature of the underlying correlations. The results are supported by numerical simulations and help narrow the observed gap between the predicted and the observed number of driver nodes in real networks.

An articulation point in a network is a node whose removal disconnects the network. Those nodes play key roles in ensuring connectivity of many real-world networks, from infrastructure networks to protein interaction networks and terrorist communication networks. Despite their fundamental importance, a general framework of studying articulation points in complex networks is lacking. Here we develop analytical tools to study key issues pertinent to articulation points, such as the expected number of them and the network vulnerability against their removal, in an arbitrary complex network. We find that a greedy articulation point removal process provides us a different perspective on the organizational principles of complex networks. Moreover, this process results in a rich phase diagram with two fundamentally different types of percolation transitions. Our results shed light on the design of more resilient infrastructure networks and the effective destruction of terrorist communication networks.

We studied the Japan and U.S. patent records of several decades to demonstrate the effect of collaboration on innovation. We found that statistically inventor teams slightly outperform solo inventors while company teams perform equally well as solo companies. By tracking the performance record of individual teams, we found that inventor teams’ performance generally degrades with more repeat collaborations. Though company teams’ performance displays strongly bursty behavior, long-term collaboration does not significantly help innovation. To systematically study the effect of repeat collaboration, we defined the repeat collaboration number of a team as the average number of collaborations over all the teammate pairs. We found that mild repeat collaboration improves the performance of Japanese inventor teams and U.S. company teams. Yet, excessive repeat collaboration does not significantly help innovation at both the inventor and company levels in both countries. To control for unobserved heterogeneity, we performed a detailed regression analysis and the results were consistent with our simple observations. The presented results revealed the intricate effect of collaboration on innovation, which may also be observed in other creative projects.

Human-associated microbial communities have a crucial role in determining our health and well-being and this has led to the continuing development of microbiome-based therapies such as faecal microbiota transplantation. These microbial communities are very complex, dynamic and highly personalized ecosystems exhibiting a high degree of inter-individual variability in both species assemblages and abundance profiles9. It is not known whether the underlying ecological dynamics of these communities, which can be parameterized by growth rates, and intra- and inter-species interactions in population dynamics models, are largely host-independent (that is, universal) or host-specific. If the inter-individual variability reflects host-specific dynamics due to differences in host lifestyle, physiology or genetics, then generic microbiome manipulations may have unintended consequences, rendering them ineffective or even detrimental. Alternatively, microbial ecosystems of different subjects may exhibit universal dynamics, with the inter-individual variability mainly originating from differences in the sets of colonizing species Here we develop a new computational method to characterize human microbial dynamics. By applying this method to cross-sectional data from two large-scale metagenomic studies—the Human Microbiome Project and the Student Microbiome Project—we show that gut and mouth microbiomes display pronounced universal dynamics, whereas communities associated with certain skin sites are probably shaped by differences in the host environment. Notably, the universality of gut microbial dynamics is not observed in subjects with recurrent Clostridium difficile infection but is observed in the same set of subjects after faecal microbiota transplantation. These results fundamentally improve our understanding of the processes that shape human microbial ecosystems, and pave the way to designing general microbiome-based therapies.

Controlling complex networked systems to desired states is a key research goal in contemporary science. Despite recent advances in studying the impact of network topology on controllability, a comprehensive understanding of the synergistic effect of network topology and individual dynamics on controllability is still lacking. Here we offer a theoretical study with particular interest in the diversity of dynamic units characterized by different types of individual dynamics. Interestingly, we find a global symmetry accounting for the invariance of controllability with respect to exchanging the densities of any two different types of dynamic units, irrespective of the network topology. The highest controllability arises at the global symmetry point, at which different types of dynamic units are of the same density. The lowest controllability occurs when all self-loops are either completely absent or present with identical weights. These findings further improve our understanding of network controllability and have implications for devising the optimal control of complex networked systems in a wide range of fields.

Impaired nitric oxide (NO˙)-cyclic guanosine 3', 5'-monophosphate (cGMP) signaling has been observed in many cardiovascular disorders, including heart failure and pulmonary arterial hypertension. There are several enzymatic determinants of cGMP levels in this pathway, including soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) itself, the NO˙-activated form of sGC, and phosphodiesterase(s) (PDE). Therapies for some of these disorders with PDE inhibitors have been successful at increasing cGMP levels in both cardiac and vascular tissues. However, at the systems level, it is not clear whether perturbation of PDE alone, under oxidative stress, is the best approach for increasing cGMP levels as compared with perturbation of other potential pathway targets, either alone or in combination. Here, we develop a model-based approach to perturbing this pathway, focusing on single reactions, pairs of reactions, or trios of reactions as targets, then monitoring the theoretical effects of these interventions on cGMP levels. Single perturbations of all reaction steps within this pathway demonstrated that three reaction steps, including the oxidation of sGC, NO˙ dissociation from sGC, and cGMP degradation by PDE, exerted a dominant influence on cGMP accumulation relative to other reaction steps. Furthermore, among all possible single, paired, and triple perturbations of this pathway, the combined perturbations of these three reaction steps had the greatest impact on cGMP accumulation. These computational findings were confirmed in cell-based experiments. We conclude that a combined perturbation of the oxidatively-impaired NO˙-cGMP signaling pathway is a better approach to the restoration of cGMP levels as compared with corresponding individual perturbations. This approach may also yield improved therapeutic responses in other complex pharmacologically amenable pathways.

Sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene allows comprehensive assessment of bacterial community composition from human body sites. Previously published and publicly accessible data on 58 preterm infants in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit who underwent frequent stool collection was used. We constructed Dynamic Bayesian Networks from the data and analyzed predictive performance and network characteristics. We constructed a DBN model of the infant gut microbial ecosystem, which explicitly captured specific relationships and general trends in the data: increasing amounts of Clostridia, residual amounts of Bacilli, and increasing amounts of Gammaproteobacteria that then give way to Clostridia. Prediction performance of DBNs with fewer edges were overall more accurate, although less so on harder-to-predict subjects (p = 0.045). DBNs provided quantitative likelihood estimates for rare abruptions events. Iterative prediction was less accurate (p < 0.001), but showed remarkable insensitivity to initial conditions and predicted convergence to a mix of Clostridia, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacilli. DBNs were able to identify important relationships between microbiome taxa and predict future changes in microbiome composition from measured or synthetic initial conditions. DBNs also provided likelihood estimates for sudden, dramatic shifts in microbiome composition, which may be useful in guiding further analysis of those samples.

Microbiome-based stratification of healthy individuals into compositional categories, referred to as “enterotypes” or “community types”, holds promise for drastically improving personalized medicine. Despite this potential, the existence of community types and the degree of their distinctness have been highly debated. Here we adopted a dynamic systems approach and found that heterogeneity in the interspecific interactions or the presence of strongly interacting species is sufficient to explain community types, independent of the topology of the underlying ecological network. By controlling the presence or absence of these strongly interacting species we can steer the microbial ecosystem to any desired community type. This open-loop control strategy still holds even when the community types are not distinct but appear as dense regions within a continuous gradient. This finding can be used to develop viable therapeutic strategies for shifting the microbial composition to a healthy configuration.