Person:

Liu, Yang-Yu

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are typically risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, known as the “reflection effect”. People are much more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same magnitude, a phenomenon called “loss aversion”. Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of the previous studies have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon, which are essential in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the impact of the reflection effect and the loss aversion phenomenon. Moreover, we introduce three novel behavioral metrics to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners based on their historical trading behavior.

Impaired nitric oxide (NO˙)-cyclic guanosine 3', 5'-monophosphate (cGMP) signaling has been observed in many cardiovascular disorders, including heart failure and pulmonary arterial hypertension. There are several enzymatic determinants of cGMP levels in this pathway, including soluble guanylyl cyclase (sGC) itself, the NO˙-activated form of sGC, and phosphodiesterase(s) (PDE). Therapies for some of these disorders with PDE inhibitors have been successful at increasing cGMP levels in both cardiac and vascular tissues. However, at the systems level, it is not clear whether perturbation of PDE alone, under oxidative stress, is the best approach for increasing cGMP levels as compared with perturbation of other potential pathway targets, either alone or in combination. Here, we develop a model-based approach to perturbing this pathway, focusing on single reactions, pairs of reactions, or trios of reactions as targets, then monitoring the theoretical effects of these interventions on cGMP levels. Single perturbations of all reaction steps within this pathway demonstrated that three reaction steps, including the oxidation of sGC, NO˙ dissociation from sGC, and cGMP degradation by PDE, exerted a dominant influence on cGMP accumulation relative to other reaction steps. Furthermore, among all possible single, paired, and triple perturbations of this pathway, the combined perturbations of these three reaction steps had the greatest impact on cGMP accumulation. These computational findings were confirmed in cell-based experiments. We conclude that a combined perturbation of the oxidatively-impaired NO˙-cGMP signaling pathway is a better approach to the restoration of cGMP levels as compared with corresponding individual perturbations. This approach may also yield improved therapeutic responses in other complex pharmacologically amenable pathways.

Microbiome-based stratification of healthy individuals into compositional categories, referred to as “enterotypes” or “community types”, holds promise for drastically improving personalized medicine. Despite this potential, the existence of community types and the degree of their distinctness have been highly debated. Here we adopted a dynamic systems approach and found that heterogeneity in the interspecific interactions or the presence of strongly interacting species is sufficient to explain community types, independent of the topology of the underlying ecological network. By controlling the presence or absence of these strongly interacting species we can steer the microbial ecosystem to any desired community type. This open-loop control strategy still holds even when the community types are not distinct but appear as dense regions within a continuous gradient. This finding can be used to develop viable therapeutic strategies for shifting the microbial composition to a healthy configuration.