Person:

Aghion, Philippe

We use a French firm-level data set containing 13,000 firms over the period 1994–2004 to analyze the relationship between credit constraints and firms’ R&D behavior over the business cycle. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) R&D investment is countercyclical without credit constraints, but it becomes procyclical as firms face tighter credit constraints; (ii) this result is only observed for firms in sectors that depend more heavily upon external finance, or that are characterized by a low degree of asset tangibility; (iii) in more credit-constrained firms, R&D investment plummets during recessions but does not increase proportionally during upturns.

This paper examines how uncertainty and credit constraints affect the cyclical composition of investment and thereby volatility and growth. We develop a model where firms engage in two types of investment: a short-term one; and a long-term one, which contributes more to productivity growth. Because it takes longer to complete, long-term investment has a relatively less cyclical return; but it also has a higher liquidity risk. The first effect ensures that the share of long-term investment to total investment is countercyclical when financial markets are perfect; the second implies that this share may turn procyclical when firms face tight credit constraints. The contribution of the paper is thus to identify a novel propagation mechanism: through its effect on the cyclical composition of investment, tighter credit can lead to both higher volatility and lower mean growth. Evidence from a panel of countries provides support for the model’s key predictions.

This paper analyzes how interacting financial development with initial income, macroeconomic volatility and policy variables, can improve our understanding of convergence and divergence across countries, and also restore the significance of correlations between growth and volatility and therefore between growth and macropolicy, even when controlling for country fixed effects or when eliminating countries with extreme policies or bad institutions.

This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development. A basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstable than either very developed or very underdeveloped economies. This is true both in the sense that temporary shocks have large and persistent effects and also in the sense that these economies can exhibit cycles. Thus, countries that are going through a phase of financial development may become more unstable in the short run. Similarly, full capital account liberalization may destabilize the economy in economies at an intermediate level of financial development: phases of growth with capital inflows are followed by collapse with capital outflows. On the other hand, foreign direct investment does not destabilize.