Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen

Person:
Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen

Last Name

Klein-Rosenthal

First Name

Joyce Ellen

Name

Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen

Full item page

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 18

Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region
(American Public Health Association, 2007) Knowlton, Kim; Lynn, Barry; Goldberg, Richard A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Hogrefe, Christian; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Kinney, Patrick L.
Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.
Environmental Planning and Urban Health
(Academy of Medicine, Singapore, 2006) Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W.
Health Impacts from Climate-Change Induced Changes in Ozone Levels in 85 United States Cities
(Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), 2004) Hogrefe, Christian; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kinney, Patrick; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Knowlton, Kim; Lynn, Barry; Patz, Jonathan; Bell, Michelle
Introduction: Global warming could impact human health through multiple pathways, including the shifting of ecosystems and associated vector-borne diseases, changes to water resources, and heat-related mortality. As the chemical reactions that form tropospheric ozone are temperature dependent, global warming could raise ambient ozone levels. This could subsequently result in an increase in ozone-associated health effects. Methods: Global warming’s potential effects on ambient ozone concentrations were modeled for 85 cities in the Eastern U.S. for five summers representing current climatic conditions (1993–1997) and five summers representing possible future climatic conditions (2053–2057) using the IPCC A-2 climate scenario and current emissions levels. A linked climate/air quality modeling system developed by the New York Climate and Health Project was used to derive ozone concentrations under climate change. The modeling system included the GISS global climate model (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), MM5 meteorological model (Penn State/United Corporation for Atmospheric Research), CMAQ air quality model (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), and SMOKE emissions processor (MCNC Supercomputing Center). The difference in ozone levels predicted by the model was combined with concentration-response functions from epidemiological studies and current mortality data to estimate the changes in mortality associated with the changes in ozone concentrations. Results: Preliminary results indicate that the climate change scenario would produce higher ambient ozone levels, with an average increase of 2.8 ppb in the daily average ozone (range −0.1 to 6.4 ppb). The daily 1-hour and 8-hour maximums increased for all 85 cities, with an average increase of 4.6 and 4.2 ppb, respectively. Results were not spatially uniform with some cities experiencing larger increases than others. Louisville, Kentucky had the largest elevation in ozone levels with an increase of 9.6 ppb in the daily 1-hour maximum. Exceedances of regulatory standards would also increase under the climate change scenario. For instance, Cincinnati, Ohio is estimated to experience 12 more days exceeding the 8-hour standard under the future climatic conditions. The corresponding health effects will be estimated. For example, elevated ozone concentrations from global warming in the 2050’s is estimated to produce a 0.25% increase (95% confidence interval 0.14, 0.36%) in daily mortality, averaged across the cities, with Louisville experiencing a 0.52% increase (0.30, 0.75%) (based on meta-analysis by Thurston and Ito, 2001). Discussion: This research demonstrates global warming’s potential impact on health through the pathway of elevated ambient ozone levels. This provides evidence for decision.
Modeling the Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of PCDD/F to the Great Lakes
(American Chemical Society (ACS), 2002) Cohen, Mark D.; Draxler, Roland R.; Artz, Richard; Commoner, Barry; Bartlett, Paul; Cooney, Paul; Couchot, Kim; Dickar, Alan; Eisl, Holger; Hill, Catherine; Quigley, James; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Niemi, David; Ratté, Dominique; Deslauriers, Marc; Laurin, Rachelle; Mathewson-Brake, Larissa; McDonald, John
Atmospheric deposition is a significant loading pathway for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (dioxin) to the Great Lakes. An innovative approach using NOAA's HYSPLIT atmospheric fate and transport model was developed to estimate the 1996 dioxin contribution to each lake from each of 5700 point sources and 42 600 area sources in a U.S./Canadian air emissions inventory. These unusually detailed source-receptor modeling results show that deposition to each lake arises from a broad geographical region, with significant contributions from up to 2000 km away. The source categories contributing most significantly to 1996 dioxin deposition appear to be municipal waste incineration, iron sintering, medical waste incineration, and cement kilns burning hazardous waste. Model-predicted air concentrations and deposition fluxes were consistent with ambient measurement data, within the uncertainties in each, but there may be a moderate tendency toward underestimation using midrange emissions estimates. The most likely reason for this tendency appears to be missing or underestimated emissions sources, but in-situ atmospheric formation of octachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) and heptachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (HpCDD) may have also contributed. Despite uncertainties, the findings regarding the relative importance of different sources types and source regions appear to be relatively robust and may be useful in prioritizing pollution prevention efforts.
Estimating the Effects of Increased Urbanization on Surface Meteorology and Ozone Concentrations in the New York City Metropolitan Region
(Elsevier BV, 2007) Civerolo, Kevin; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Solecki, William; Cox, Jennifer; Small, Christopher; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Goldberg, Richard; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick
Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O3) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg−1, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O3 levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O3 levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O3 levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.
Environmental Equity and Health: Understanding Complexity and Moving Forward
(American Public Health Association, 2003) Northridge, Mary E.; Stover, Gabriel N.; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Sherard, Donna
The authors invoke a population health perspective to assess the distribution of environmental hazards according to race/ethnicity, social class, age, gender, and sexuality and the implications of these hazards for health. The unequal burden of environmental hazards borne by African American, Native American, Latino, and Asian American/Pacific Islander communities and their relationship to well-documented racial/ethnic disparities in health have not been critically examined across all population groups, regions of the United States, and ages. The determinants of existing environmental inequities also require critical research attention. To ensure inclusiveness and fill important gaps, scientific evidence is needed on the health effects of the built environment as well as the natural environment, cities and suburbs as well as rural areas, and indoor as well as outdoor pollutants.
Simulated Effects of Climate Change on Summertime Nitrogen Deposition in the Eastern US
(Elsevier BV, 2008) Civerolo, Kevin L.; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Goldberg, Richard; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.
It is anticipated that climate change may impact regional-scale air quality and atmospheric deposition in the coming decades. To simulate the effects of climate change on nitrogen (N) deposition across numerous watersheds in the eastern US, we applied the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS-GCM), Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Keeping chemical initial and boundary conditions, land use, and anthropogenic area and point source emissions fixed, this modeling system was applied over five summers (June–August) from 1993 to 1997 and five summers from 2053 to 2057. Over these eastern US watersheds, the modeling system estimated 3–14% increases in summertime N deposition as a result of climate change. This increase is primarily due to the direct effects of climate change on atmospheric conditions and chemistry. Wet N deposition is predicted to increase as a result of increased precipitation, while dry N deposition is predicted to increase as higher surface temperatures favor gas-phase nitric acid to particulate nitrate. The simulated increase suggests that additional reductions in N oxides and/or ammonia may be needed to fully realize the anticipated benefits of planned reduction strategies, including the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).
Simulating Regional-Scale Ozone Climatology over the Eastern United States: Model Evaluation Results
(Elsevier BV, 2004) Hogrefe, C.; Biswas, J.; Lynn, B.; Civerolo, K.; Ku, J.-Y.; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.; Kinney, P.L.
To study the potential impacts of climate change on air quality and public health over the eastern United States, a coupled global/regional-scale modeling system consisting of the NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere–Ocean model, the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for air quality has been developed. Evaluation results of the modeling system used to simulate climate and ozone air quality over the eastern United States during the five summers of 1993–1997 are presented in this paper. The results indicate that MM5 and CMAQ capture interannual and synoptic-scale variability present in surface temperature and ozone observations in the current climate, while the magnitude of fluctuations on shorter time scales is underestimated. A comparison of observed and predicted spatial patterns of daily maximum ozone concentrations shows best performance in predicting patterns for average and above-average ozone concentrations. The frequency distributions of the duration of extreme heat and ozone events show similar features for both model predictions and observations. Finally, application of a synoptic map-typing procedure reveals that the MM5/CMAQ system succeeded in simulating the average ozone concentrations associated with several frequent pressure patterns, indicating that the effects of synoptic-scale meteorology on ozone concentrations are captured by the modeling system. It is concluded that the GCM/MM5/CMAQ system is a suitable tool for the simulation of summertime surface temperature and ozone air quality conditions over the eastern United States in the present climate.
Simulating Changes in Regional Air Pollution over the Eastern United States Due to Changes in Global and Regional Climate and Emissions
(American Geophysical Union, 2004) Hogrefe, C.; Lynn, B.; Civerolo, K.; Ku, J.-Y.; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.; Gaffin, S.; Knowlton, K.; Kinney, P.L.
[1] To simulate ozone (O3) air quality in future decades over the eastern United States, a modeling system consisting of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model, the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale regional climate model (MM5), and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model has been applied. Estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors are based on the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one of the scenarios with the highest growth of CO2 among all IPCC scenarios. Simulation results for five summers in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s indicate that summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations increase by 2.7, 4.2, and 5.0 ppb, respectively, as a result of regional climate change alone with respect to five summers in the 1990s. Through additional sensitivity simulations for the five summers in the 2050s the relative impact of changes in regional climate, anthropogenic emissions within the modeling domain, and changed boundary conditions approximating possible changes of global atmospheric composition was investigated. Changed boundary conditions are found to be the largest contributor to changes in predicted summertime average daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations (5.0 ppb), followed by the effects of regional climate change (4.2 ppb) and the effects of increased anthropogenic emissions (1.3 ppb). However, when changes in the fourth highest summertime 8-hour O3 concentration are considered, changes in regional climate are the most important contributor to simulated concentration changes (7.6 ppb), followed by the effect of increased anthropogenic emissions (3.9 ppb) and increased boundary conditions (2.8 ppb). Thus, while previous studies have pointed out the potentially important contribution of growing global emissions and intercontinental transport to O3 air quality in the United States for future decades, the results presented here imply that it may be equally important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional-scale air quality standards such as the U.S. national ambient air quality standard that is based on the fourth highest annual daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentration.
Sensitivity of Present and Future Surface Temperatures to Precipitation Characteristics
(Inter-Research Science Center, 2004) Lynn, Barry H.; Druyan, Leonard; Hogrefe, Christian; Dudhia, Jimy; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Goldberg, Richard; Rind, David; Healy, Richard; Klein-Rosenthal, Joyce Ellen; Kinney, Patrick
A model simulation study shows that different diurnal cycles of precipitation are consistent with radically different present and future climate characteristics. In projected future climate scenarios, divergence in the time of day and type of precipitation had very divergent impacts on the radiation balance and consequently on surface temperatures. The relationship between the diurnal cycle of precipitation versus the present and future climate was examined using the GISS-MM5 (Goddard Institute for Space Studies Mesoscale Model 5) regional climate modeling system with 2 alternative moist convection schemes. June-August (JJA) mean surface temperatures of the 1990s, 2050s, and 2080s were simulated over the eastern US on a double nested 108/36 km domain, with the 36 km domain centered over the eastern US. In the 1990s, one model version simulated maxima in (convective) precipitation during the early morning, while the second model simulated the hour of precipitation maxima with considerable spatial variability (in better agreement with observations). In the futuristic climate scenarios, differences in the time of day of precipitation had very important impacts on the radiation balance at the surface. One version gave more precipitation at night and fewer clouds during the day, promoting higher surface temperatures. The alternative version created more precipitation during the day, consistent with diminished absorption of solar radiation at the surface and consequently lower surface temperatures. The results demonstrate the importance of improving cumulus parameterizations in regional mesoscale and global climate models and suggest that such improvements would lead to greater confidence in model projections of climate change.