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Majumder, Maimuna

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Majumder

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Maimuna

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Majumder, Maimuna

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20202

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Author's Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.8480886b-9a86-498c-aa93-c8482bdf3c65

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    Modeling the Impact of Demography on COVID-19 Dynamics in Hubei and Lombardy
    (2020-04-09) Wilder, Bryan; Charpignon, Marie; Killian, Jackson; Ou, Han-Ching; Mate, Aditya; Jabbari, Shahin; Perrault, Andrew; Desai, Angel; Tambe, Milind; Majumder, Maimuna
    As the COVID-19 pandemic accelerates, understanding its dynamics will be crucial to formulating regional and national policy interventions. We develop an individual-level model for SARS-CoV2 transmission that accounts for location-dependent distributions of age, household structure, and comorbidities applied to Hubei, China and Lombardy, Italy. Using these distributions together with age-stratified contact matrices for each country, our model estimates that the epidemic in Lombardy is both more transmissible and more deadly than in Hubei, while rates of disease documentation in both locations may be lower than previously established. Evaluation of potential policies in Lombardy suggests that targeted “salutary sheltering” by 50% of a single age group may have a substantial impact when combined with the adoption of physical distancing measures by the rest of the population.
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    The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak
    (2020-02-17) Luo, Wei; Majumder, Maimuna; Liu, Dianbo; Poirier, Canelle; Mandl, Kenneth; Lipsitch, Marc; Santillana, Mauricio
    A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 40,000 cases worldwide to date. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments see attenuated viral transmission (i.e., influenza). However, the role of absolute humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine province-level variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across China and find that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the North Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in COVID-19 case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.