Person:

Murray, Megan

Background: Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of TB natural history, the impact of demography on the behaviour of TB models has not been assessed. Methods: A simple model of TB transmission, with alternative assumptions about survivorship, is used to explore the effect of age structure on the prevalence of infection, disease, basic reproductive ratio and the projected impact of control interventions. We focus our analytic arguments on the differences between constant and exponentially distributed lifespans and use an individual-based model to investigate the range of behaviour arising from realistic distributions of survivorship. Results: The choice of age structure and natural (non-disease related) mortality strongly affects steady-state dynamics, parameter estimation and predictions about the effectiveness of control interventions. Since most individuals infected with TB develop an asymptomatic latent infection and never progress to active disease, we find that assuming a constant mortality rate results in a larger reproductive ratio and an overestimation of the effort required for disease control in comparison to using more realistic age-specific mortality rates. Conclusions: Demographic modelling assumptions should be considered in the interpretation of models of chronic infectious diseases such as TB. For simple models, we find that assuming constant lifetimes, rather than exponential lifetimes, produces dynamics more representative of models with realistic age structure.

Two cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) in a household are assumed to reflect within-household transmission. However, in high-incidence areas of MDR TB, secondary cases may arise through exposure to MDR TB in the community. To estimate the frequency of multiple introductions of MDR TB into households, we used spoligotyping and 24-loci mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit–variable number tandem repeats to classify isolates from 101 households in Lima, Peru, in which >1 MDR TB patient received treatment during 1996–2004. We found different MDR TB strains in (\geq)10% of households. Alternate approaches for classifying matching strains produced estimates of multiple introductions in (\leq)38% of households. At least 4% of MDR TB patients were reinfected by a second strain of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis. These findings suggest that community exposure to MDR TB in Lima occurs frequently. Rapid drug sensitivity testing of strains from household contacts of known MDR TB patients is needed to identify optimal treatment regimens.

Background: The Xpert MTB/RIF test enables rapid detection of tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance. The World Health Organization recommends Xpert for initial diagnosis in individuals suspected of having multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) or HIV-associated TB, and many countries are moving quickly toward adopting Xpert. As roll-out proceeds, it is essential to understand the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies based on Xpert. Methods and findings: We evaluated potential health and economic consequences of implementing Xpert in five southern African countries—Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland—where drug resistance and TB-HIV coinfection are prevalent. Using a calibrated, dynamic mathematical model, we compared the status quo diagnostic algorithm, emphasizing sputum smear, against an algorithm incorporating Xpert for initial diagnosis. Results were projected over 10- and 20-y time periods starting from 2012. Compared to status quo, implementation of Xpert would avert 132,000 (95% CI: 55,000–284,000) TB cases and 182,000 (97,000–302,000) TB deaths in southern Africa over the 10 y following introduction, and would reduce prevalence by 28% (14%–40%) by 2022, with more modest reductions in incidence. Health system costs are projected to increase substantially with Xpert, by US$460 million (294–699 million) over 10 y. Antiretroviral therapy for HIV represents a substantial fraction of these additional costs, because of improved survival in TB/HIV-infected populations through better TB case-finding and treatment. Costs for treating MDR-TB are also expected to rise significantly with Xpert scale-up. Relative to status quo, Xpert has an estimated cost-effectiveness of US$959 (633–1,485) per disability-adjusted life-year averted over 10 y. Across countries, cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from US$792 (482–1,785) in Swaziland to US$1,257 (767–2,276) in Botswana. Assessing outcomes over a 10-y period focuses on the near-term consequences of Xpert adoption, but the cost-effectiveness results are conservative, with cost-effectiveness ratios assessed over a 20-y time horizon approximately 20% lower than the 10-y values. Conclusions: Introduction of Xpert could substantially change TB morbidity and mortality through improved case-finding and treatment, with more limited impact on long-term transmission dynamics. Despite extant uncertainty about TB natural history and intervention impact in southern Africa, adoption of Xpert evidently offers reasonable value for its cost, based on conventional benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. However, the additional financial burden would be substantial, including significant increases in costs for treating HIV and MDR-TB. Given the fundamental influence of HIV on TB dynamics and intervention costs, care should be taken when interpreting the results of this analysis outside of settings with high HIV prevalence. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Background: The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir), combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness). Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans. Methods and Findings: We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing) that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains. Conclusions: The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance should be considered in pandemic planning and monitored closely during a pandemic.

Background: Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death in South Africa by death notification, but accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis is challenging in this setting of high HIV prevalence. We conducted limited autopsies on young adults dying in a single public hospital in the province of KwaZulu-Natal between October 2008 and August 2009 in order to estimate the magnitude of deaths attributable to tuberculosis. Methods and Findings: We studied a representative sample of 240 adult inpatients (aged 20–45 years) dying after admission to Edendale Hospital. Limited autopsies included collection of respiratory tract secretions and tissue by needle core biopsies of lung, liver, and spleen. Specimens were examined by fluorescent microscopy for acid-fast bacilli and cultured in liquid media; cultures positive for M. tuberculosis were tested for drug susceptibility to first- and second-line antibiotics. Ninety-four percent of our study cohort was HIV seropositive and 50% of decedents had culture-positive tuberculosis at the time of death. Fifty percent of the participants were on treatment for tuberculosis at the time of death and 58% of these treated individuals remained culture positive at the time of death. Of the 50% not receiving tuberculosis treatment, 42% were culture positive. Seventeen percent of all positive cultures were resistant to both isoniazid and rifampin (i.e., multidrug resistant); 16% of patients dying during the initiation phase of their first ever course of tuberculosis treatment were infected with multidrug-resistant bacilli. Conclusions: Our findings reveal the immense toll of tuberculosis among HIV-positive individuals in KwaZulu-Natal. The majority of decedents who remained culture positive despite receiving tuberculosis treatment were infected with pansusceptible M. tuberculosis, suggesting that the diagnosis of tuberculosis was made too late to alter the fatal course of the infection. There is also a significant burden of undetected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among HIV-coinfected individuals dying in this setting. New public health approaches that improve early diagnosis of tuberculosis and accelerate the initiation of treatment are urgently needed in this setting.

Background: The emergence of tuberculosis resistant to multiple first- and second-line antibiotics poses challenges to a global control strategy that relies on standard drug treatment regimens. Highly drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis have been implicated in outbreaks and have been found throughout the world; a comprehensive understanding the magnitude of this threat requires an accurate assessment of the worldwide burden of resistance. Unfortunately, in many settings where resistance is emerging, laboratory capacity is limited and estimates of the burden of resistance are obtained by performing drug sensitivity testing on a sample of incident cases rather than through the use of routine surveillance. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using an individual-based dynamic tuberculosis model to simulate surveillance strategies for drug resistance, we found that current surveys may underestimate the total burden of resistant tuberculosis because cases of acquired resistance are undercounted and resistance among prevalent cases is not assessed. We explored how this bias is affected by the maturity of the epidemic and by the introduction of interventions that target the emergence and spread of resistant tuberculosis. Conclusions: Estimates of drug resistant tuberculosis based on samples of incident cases should be viewed as a lower bound of the total burden of resistance.

A critical question in tuberculosis control is why some strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis are preferentially associated with multiple drug resistances. We demonstrate that M. tuberculosis strains from Lineage 2 (East Asian lineage and Beijing sublineage) acquire drug resistances in vitro more rapidly than M. tuberculosis strains from Lineage 4 (Euro-American lineage) and that this higher rate can be attributed to a higher mutation rate. Moreover, the in vitro mutation rate correlates well with the bacterial mutation rate in humans as determined by whole genome sequencing of clinical isolates. Finally, using a stochastic mathematical model, we demonstrate that the observed differences in mutation rate predict a substantially higher probability that patients infected with a drug susceptible Lineage 2 strain will harbor multidrug resistant bacteria at the time of diagnosis. These data suggest that interventions to prevent the emergence of drug resistant tuberculosis should target bacterial as well as treatment-related risk factors.