Person:

Wang, Qiaoqiao

Radiative forcing by aerosols and tropospheric ozone could play a significant role in recent Arctic warming. These species are in general poorly accounted for in climate models. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to construct a 3-D representation of Arctic aerosols and ozone that is consistent with observations and can be used in climate simulations. We focus on 2008, when extensive observations were made from different platforms as part of the International Polar Year. Comparison to aircraft, surface, and ship cruise observations suggests that GEOS-Chem provides in general a successful year-round simulation of Arctic black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sulfate, and dust aerosol. BC has major fuel combustion and boreal fire sources, OC is mainly from fires, sulfate has a mix of anthropogenic and natural sources, and dust is mostly from the Sahara. The model is successful in simulating aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations from Aerosol Robotics Network stations in the Arctic; the sharp drop from spring to summer appears driven in part by the smaller size of sulfate aerosol in summer. The anthropogenic contribution to Arctic AOD is a factor of 4 larger in spring than in summer and is mainly sulfate. Simulation of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) indicates that non-BC aerosol (OC and dust) contributed 24% of Arctic AAOD at 550 nm and 37% of absorbing mass deposited to the snow pack in 2008. Open fires contributed half of AAOD at 550 nm and half of deposition to the snowpack.

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to interpret aircraft curtain observations of black carbon (BC) aerosol over the Pacific from 85°N to 67°S during the 2009–2011 HIAPER (High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns. Observed concentrations are very low, implying much more efficient scavenging than is usually implemented in models. Our simulation with a global source of (6.5 Tg a^{−1}) and mean tropospheric lifetime of 4.2 days (versus 6.8 ± 1.8 days for the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) models) successfully simulates BC concentrations in source regions and continental outflow and captures the principal features of the HIPPO data but is still higher by a factor of 2 (1.48 for column loads) over the Pacific. It underestimates BC absorbing aerosol optical depths (AAODs) from the Aerosol Robotic Network by 32% on a global basis. Only 8.7% of global BC loading in GEOS-Chem is above 5 km, versus 21 ± 11% for the AeroCom models, with important implications for radiative forcing estimates. Our simulation yields a global BC burden of 77 Gg, a global mean BC AAOD of 0.0017, and a top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing (TOA DRF) of (0.19 W m^{−2}), with a range of (0.17–0.31 W m^{−2}) based on uncertainties in the BC atmospheric distribution. Our TOA DRF is lower than previous estimates ((0.27 \pm 0.06 W m^{−2}) in AeroCom, (0.65–0.9 W m^{−2}) in more recent studies). We argue that these previous estimates are biased high because of excessive BC concentrations over the oceans and in the free troposphere.

This thesis explores the factors controlling the distribution of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere/troposphere and its implications for climate forcing. BC is of great climate interest because of its warming potential. Estimates of BC climate forcing have large uncertainty, in part due to poor knowledge of the distribution of BC in the atmosphere. This dissertation first examines the factors controlling the sources of BC in the Arctic in winter and spring using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Emission inventories of BC and wet scavenging of aerosols in the model are updated to reproduce observed atmospheric concentrations of BC as well as observed snow BC content in the Arctic in winter-spring. The simulation shows a dominant contribution of fuel (fossil fuel and biofuel) combustion to BC in Arctic spring. Arctic snow BC content is dominated by fuel combustion sources in winter, but has equal contributions from open fires and fuel combustion in spring. The estimated decrease in Arctic snow albedo due to BC deposition in spring is 0.6%, resulting in a regional surface radiative forcing of 1.2 W m-2. The dissertation then extends the evaluation of the BC simulation to the global scale using aircraft observations over source regions, continental outflow and remote regions and ground-based measurements. The observed low BC concentrations over the remote oceans imply more efficient BC removal than is currently implemented in models. The simulation that has total BC emissions of 6.5 Tg C a-1 and a mean tropospheric lifetime of 4.2 days for 2009 (vs. 6.8 &plusmn 1.8 days for the AeroCom models) captures the principal features of observed BC. The simulation estimates a global mean BC absorbing aerosol optical depth of 0.0017 and a top-of-atmosphere direct radiative forcing (DRF) of 0.19 W m-2, with a range of 0.17-0.31 W m-2 based on uncertainties in the BC atmospheric distribution. The DRF is lower than previous estimates, which could be biased high because of excessive BC concentrations over the oceans and in the free troposphere.