Person:

Lamont, Elizabeth

Purpose Colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis reduces life expectancy and decreases patients’ well-being. We sought to assess the determinants of health and functional status and estimate the proportion of remaining life that CRC survivors would spend in good health. Methods Using Sullivan method, healthy life expectancy was calculated based on survival data of 14,849 CRC survivors within a population-based cancer registry in southern Netherlands and quality of life information among a random sample of these survivors (n = 1,291). Results: Overall, albeit short life expectancy (LE at age 50 = 12 years for males and 13 years for females), most CRC survivors spent a large proportion of their remaining life in good health (74 and 77 %, for males and females, respectively). Long-term survivors may expect to live a normal life span (LE at age 50 = 30 years) and spent a large proportion of the remaining life in good health (78 %). In distinction, those with stage IV CRC had less than 2 years to live and spent more than half of their remaining life in poor health. Conclusions: Most CRC patients may expect no compromise on living a healthy life, underlining the importance of early detection. On the other hand, the high proportion of non-healthy years among stage IV CRC survivors confirms the importance of early detection and palliative care. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10552-012-0010-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

To determine the accuracy with which Medicare claims data measure disease-free survival in elderly Medicare beneficiaries with cancer, we performed a criterion validation study. We merged gold-standard clinical trial data of 45 elderly patients with node-positive breast cancer who were treated on the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CAL-GB) adjuvant breast trial 9344 with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) data files and compared the results of a CMS-based algorithm with the CALGB disease-free survival information to determine sensitivity and specificity. For 5-year disease-free survival, the sensitivity of the CMS-based algorithm was 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 81% to 100%), the specificity was 97% (95% CI = 83% to 100%), and the area under the receiver operator curve was 97% (95% CI = 90% to 100%). For 2-year disease-free survival, the test characteristics were less favorable: sensitivity was 83% (95% CI = 36% to 100%), specificity was 95% (95% CI = 83% to 100%), and area under the receiver operator curve was 84% (95% CI = 66% to 100%).

Objective: To describe doctors' prognostic accuracy in terminally ill patients and to evaluate the determinants of that accuracy. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Five outpatient hospice programmes in Chicago. Participants: 343 doctors provided survival estimates for 468 terminally ill patients at the time of hospice referral. Main outcome measures: Patients' estimated and actual survival. Results: Median survival was 24 days. Only 20% (92/468) of predictions were accurate (within 33% of actual survival); 63% (295/468) were overoptimistic and 17% (81/468) were overpessimistic. Overall, doctors overestimated survival by a factor of 5.3. Few patient or doctor characteristics were associated with prognostic accuracy. Male patients were 58% less likely to have overpessimistic predictions. Non-oncology medical specialists were 326% more likely than general internists to make overpessimistic predictions. Doctors in the upper quartile of practice experience were the most accurate. As duration of doctor-patient relationship increased and time since last contact decreased, prognostic accuracy decreased. Conclusion: Doctors are inaccurate in their prognoses for terminally ill patients and the error is systematically optimistic. The inaccuracy is, in general, not restricted to certain kinds of doctors or patients. These phenomena may be adversely affecting the quality of care given to patients near the end of life.

Predicting survival and disclosing the prediction to patients with advanced disease, particularly cancer, is among the most difficult tasks that physicians face. With the de-emphasis of prognosis in favor of diagnosis and therapeutics in the medical literature, physicians may have difficulty finding the survival information they need to make appropriate estimates of survival for patients who develop cancer. Quite separate from the challenge of estimating survival accurately, physicians may also find the process of disclosing the prognosis to their patients difficult. Using the vignette of a real patient with advanced cancer who far outlived her physician's prognostic estimate, we discuss clinical issues related to the science of prognosis in advanced cancer and the art of its disclosure.