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Ibragimov, Rustam

We obtain estimates for the best constant in the Rosenthal inequality View the MathML source for independent random variables ξ1,…,ξn with l zero first odd moments, lgreater-or-equal, slanted1. The estimates are sharp in the extremal cases l=1 and l=m, that is, in the cases of random variables with zero mean and random variables with m zero first odd moments.

Weak convergence of partial sums and multilinear forms in independent random variables and linear processes and their nonlinear analogues to stochastic integrals now plays a major role in nonstationary time series and has been central to the development of unit root econometrics. The present paper develops a new and conceptually simple method for obtaining such forms of convergence. The method relies on the fact that the econometric quantities of interest involve discrete time martingales or semimartingales and shows how in the limit these quantities become continuous martingales and semimartingales. The limit theory itself uses very general convergence results for semimartingales that were obtained in the work of Jacod and Shiryaev (2003, Limit Theorems for Stochastic Processes). The theory that is developed here is applicable in a wide range of econometric models, and many examples are given. %One notable outcome of the new approach is that it provides a unified treatment of the asymptotics for stationary, explosive, unit root, and local to unity autoregression, and also some general nonlinear time series regressions. All of these cases are subsumed within the martingale convergence approach, and different rates of convergence are accommodated in a natural way. Moreover, the results on multivariate extensions developed in the paper deliver a unification of the asymptotics for, among many others, models with cointegration and also for regressions with regressors that are nonlinear transforms of integrated time series driven by shocks correlated with the equation errors. Because this is the first time the methods have been used in econometrics, the exposition is presented in some detail with illustrations of new derivations of some well-known existing results, in addition to the provision of new results and the unification of the limit theory for autoregression.

This paper studies the properties of the sex ratio in two-period models of threshold (e.g., polygenic or temperature-dependent) sex determination under heavy-tailedness in the framework of possibly skewed stable distributions and their convolutions. We show that if the initial distribution of the sex determining trait in such settings is moderately heavy-tailed and has a finite first moment, then an excess of males (females) in the first period leads to the same pattern in the second period. Thus, the excess of one sex over the other one accumulates over two generations and the sex ratio in the total alive population in the second period cannot stabilize at the balanced sex ratio value of 1/2. These properties are reversed for extremely heavy-tailed initial distributions of sex determining traits with infinite first moments. In such settings, the sex ratio of the offspring oscillates around the balanced sex ratio value and an excess of males (females) in the first period leads to an excess of females (males) in the second period. In addition, the sex ratio in the total living population in the second period can stabilize at 1/2 for some extremely heavy-tailed initial distributions of the sex determining trait. The results in the paper are shown to also hold for bounded sex determining phenotypes.

Let $\xi_1, \ldots, \xi_n$ be independent random variables with ${\bf E}\xi_i=0,$ ${\bf E}|\xi_i|^t<\infty$, $t>2$, $i=1,\ldots, n,$ and let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n \xi_i.$ In the present paper we prove that the exact constant ${\overline C}(2m)$ in the Rosenthal inequality $$ {\bf E}|S_n|^t\le C(t) \max \Bigg(\sum_{i=1}^n{\bf E}|\xi_i|^t,\ \Bigg(\sum_{i=1}^n {\bf E}\xi_i^2\Bigg)^{t/2}\Bigg) $$ for $t=2m,$ $m\in {\bf N},$ is given by $$ \overline C(2m)=(2m)! \sum_{j=1}^{2m} \sum_{r=1}^j \sum \prod_{k=1}^r \frac {(m_k!)^{-j_k}} {j_k!}, $$ where the inner sum is taken over all natural $m_1 > m_2 > \cdots > m_r > 1$ and $j_1, \ldots, j_r$ satisfying the conditions $m_1j_1+\cdots+m_rj_r=2m$ and $j_1+\cdots+j_r=j$. Moreover $$ \overline C(2m)={\bf E}(\theta-1)^{2m}, $$ where $\theta $ is a Poisson random variable with parameter 1.

In this paper we present a study of the problem of approximating the expectations of functions of statistics in independent and dependent random variables in terms of the expectations of functions of the component random variables. We present results providing sharp analogues of the Burkholder--Rosenthal inequalities and related estimates for the expectations of functions of sums of dependent nonnegative r.v.'s and conditionally symmetric martingale differences with bounded conditional moments as well as for sums of multilinear forms. Among others, we obtain the following sharp inequalities: $E(\sum_{k=1}^n X_k)^t\le 2 \max (\sum_{k=1}^n EX_k^t, (\sum_{k=1}^n a_k)^t)$ for all nonnegative r.v.'s $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ with $E(X_k\mid X_1, \ldots, X_{k-1})\le a_k$, $EX_k^t<\infty$, $k=1, \ldots, n$, $1#x003C;t#x003C;2$; $E(\sum_{k=1}^n X_k)^t\le E\theta^t(1) \max (\sum_{k=1}^n b_k, (\sum_{k=1}^n a_k^s)^{t/s})$ for all nonnegative r.v.'s $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ with $E(X_k^s\mid X_1, \ldots, X_{k-1})\le a_k^s$, $E(X_k^t\mid X_1, \ldots, X_{k-1})\le b_k$, $k=1, \ldots, n$, $1#x003C;t#x003C;2$, $0#x003C;s\le t-1$ or $t\ge 2$, $0#x003C;s\le 1$, where $\theta(1)$ is a Poisson random variable with parameter 1. As applications, new decoupling inequalities for sums of multilinear forms are presented and sharp Khintchine--Marcinkiewicz--Zygmund inequalities for generalized moving averages are obtained. The results can also be used in the study of a wide class of nonlinear statistics connected to problems of long-range dependence and in an econometric setup, in particular, in stabilization policy problems and in the study of properties of moving average and autocorrelation processes. The results are based on the iteration of a series of key lemmas that capture the essential extremal properties of the moments of the statistics involved.

This paper focuses on the analysis of efficiency, peakedness, and majorization properties of linear estimators under heavy-tailedness assumptions. We demonstrate that peakedness and majorization properties of log-concavely distributed random samples continue to hold for convolutions of [alpha]-symmetric distributions with [alpha] > 1. However, these properties are reversed in the case of convolutions of [alpha]-symmetric distributions with [alpha] < 1.

We show that the sample mean is the best linear unbiased estimator of the population mean for not extremely heavy-tailed populations in the sense of its peakedness. In such a case, the sample mean exhibits monotone consistency, and an increase in the sample size always improves its performance. However, efficiency of the sample mean in the sense of peakedness decreases with the sample size if it is used to estimate the location parameter under extreme heavy-tailedness. We also present applications of the results in the study of concentration inequalities for linear estimators.

Recent results in value at risk analysis show that, for extremely heavy-tailed risks with unbounded distribution support, diversification may increase value at risk, and that generally it is difficult to construct an appropriate risk measure for such distributions. We further analyze the limitations of diversification for heavy-tailed risks. We provide additional insight in two ways. First, we show that similar non-diversification results are valid for a large class of risks with bounded support, as long as the risks are concentrated on a sufficiently large interval. The required length of the support depends on the number of risks available and on the degree of heavy-tailedness. Second, we relate the value at risk approach to more general risk frameworks. We argue that in markets for risky assets where the number of assets is limited compared with the (bounded) distribution support of the risks, unbounded heavy-tailed risks may provide a reasonable approximation. We suggest that this type of analysis may have a role in explaining various types of market failures in markets for assets with possibly large negative outcomes.

This paper analyzes portfolio diversification for nonlinear transformations of heavy-tailed risks. It is shown that diversification of a portfolio of convex functions of heavy-tailed risks increases the portfolio’s riskiness if expectations of these risks are infinite. In contrast, for concave functions of heavy-tailed risks with finite expectations, the stylized fact that diversification is preferable continues to hold. The framework of transformations of heavy-tailed risks includes many models with Pareto-type distributions that exhibit local or moderate deviations from power tails in the form of additional slowly varying or exponential factors. The class of distributions under study is therefore extended beyond the stable class.

This paper presents a study of the intertemporal propagation of distributional properties of phenotypes in general polygenic multisex inheritance models with sex- and time-dependent heritabilities. It further analyzes the implications of these models under heavy-tailedness of traits' initial distributions. Our results suggest the optimality of a flexible asexual/binary mating system. Switching between asexual and binary inheritance mechanisms allows the population effectively to achieve a fast suppression of negative traits and a fast dispersion of positive traits, regardless of the distributional properties of the phenotypes in the initial period.

In this paper, we study transmission of traits through generations in multifactorial inheritance models with sex- and time-dependent heritability. We further analyze the implications of these models under heavy-tailedness of traits’ distributions. Among other results, we show that in the case of a trait (for instance, a medical or behavioral disorder or a phenotype with significant heritability affecting human capital in an economy) with not very thick-tailed initial density, the trait distribution becomes increasingly more peaked, that is, increasingly more concentrated and unequally spread, with time. But these patterns are reversed for traits with sufficiently heavy-tailed initial distributions (e.g., a medical or behavioral disorder for which there is no strongly expressed risk group or a relatively equally distributed ability with significant genetic influence). Such traits’ distributions become less peaked over time and increasingly more spread in the population. The proof of the results in the paper is based on the general results on majorization properties of heavy-tailed distributions obtained recently in Ibragimov (Econom Theory 23: 501–517, 2007) and also presented in the author’s Ph.D. dissertation (Ibragimov, New majorization theory in economics and martingale convergence results in econometrics. Yale University, 2005) and several their extensions derived in this work.