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See Eissa and Schevon (doi:10.1093/aww332) for a scientific commentary on this article. Surgery can be a last resort for patients with intractable, medically refractory epilepsy. For many of these patients, however, there is substantial risk that the surgery will be ineffective. The prediction of who is likely to benefit from a surgical approach is crucial for being able to inform patients better, conduct principled prospective clinical trials, and ultimately tailor therapeutic approaches to these patients more effectively. Dynamical computational models, informed with patient data, can be used to make predictions and give mechanistic insight. In this study, we develop patient-specific dynamical network models of epileptogenic cortex. We infer the network connectivity matrix from non-seizure electrographic recordings of patients and use these connectivity matrices as the network structure in our model. The model simulates the dynamics of a bi-stable switch at every node in this network, meaning that every node starts in a background state, but has the ability to transit to a co-existing seizure state. Whether a transition happens in a node is partly determined by the stochastic nature of the input to the node, but also by the input the node receives from other connected nodes in the network. By conducting simulations with such a model, we can detect the average transition time for nodes in a given network, and therefore define nodes with a short transition time as highly epileptogenic. In a retrospective study, we found that in some patients the regions with high epileptogenicity in the model overlap with those identified clinically as the seizure onset zone. Moreover, it was found that the resection of these regions in the model reduces the overall likelihood of a seizure. Following removal of these regions in the model, we predicted surgical outcomes and compared these to actual patient outcomes. Our predictions were found to be 81.3% accurate on a dataset of 16 patients with intractable epilepsy. Intriguingly, in patients with unsuccessful outcomes, the proposed computational approach is able to suggest alternative resection sites. The model presented here gives mechanistic insight as to why surgery may be unsuccessful in some patients. This may aid clinicians in presurgical evaluation by providing a tool to explore various surgical options, offering complementary information to existing clinical techniques.

Abstract Network hyperexcitability is a feature of Alzheimer’ disease (AD) as well as numerous transgenic mouse models of AD. While hyperexcitability in AD patients and AD animal models share certain features, the mechanistic overlap remains to be established. We aimed to identify features of network hyperexcitability in AD models that can be related to epileptiform activity signatures in AD patients. We studied network hyperexcitability in mice expressing amyloid precursor protein (APP) with mutations that cause familial AD, and compared a transgenic model that overexpresses human APP (hAPP) (J20), to a knock-in model expressing APP at physiological levels (APPNL/F). We recorded continuous long-term electrocorticogram (ECoG) activity from mice, and studied modulation by circadian cycle, behavioral, and brain state. We report that while J20s exhibit frequent interictal spikes (IISs), APPNL/F mice do not. In J20 mice, IISs were most prevalent during daylight hours and the circadian modulation was associated with sleep. Further analysis of brain state revealed that IIS in J20s are associated with features of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. We found no evidence of cholinergic changes that may contribute to IIS-circadian coupling in J20s. In contrast to J20s, intracranial recordings capturing IIS in AD patients demonstrated frequent IIS in non-REM (NREM) sleep. The salient differences in sleep-stage coupling of IIS in APP overexpressing mice and AD patients suggests that different mechanisms may underlie network hyperexcitability in mice and humans. We posit that sleep-stage coupling of IIS should be an important consideration in identifying mouse AD models that most closely recapitulate network hyperexcitability in human AD.