Person:

Mandl, Kenneth

Background: The influence of air travel on influenza spread has been the subject of numerous investigations using simulation, but very little empirical evidence has been provided. Understanding the role of airline travel in large-scale influenza spread is especially important given the mounting threat of an influenza pandemic. Several recent simulation studies have concluded that air travel restrictions may not have a significant impact on the course of a pandemic. Here, we assess, with empirical data, the role of airline volume on the yearly inter-regional spread of influenza in the United States. Methods and Findings: We measured rate of inter-regional spread and timing of influenza in the United States for nine seasons, from 1996 to 2005 using weekly influenza and pneumonia mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonality was characterized by band-pass filtering. We found that domestic airline travel volume in November (mostly surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday) predicts the rate of influenza spread ((r^2) = 0.60; p = 0.014). We also found that international airline travel influences the timing of influenza mortality ((r^2) = 0.59; p = 0.016). The flight ban in the US after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent depression of the air travel market, provided a natural experiment for the evaluation of flight restrictions; the decrease in air travel was associated with a delayed and prolonged influenza season. Conclusions: We provide the first empirical evidence for the role of airline travel in long-range dissemination of influenza. Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline travel restrictions on influenza spread.

Background: Historical studies of news media have suggested an association between reporting and increased drug abuse. Period effects for substance use have been documented for different classes of legal and illicit substances, with the suspicion that media publicity may have played major roles in their emergence. Previous analyses have drawn primarily from qualitative evidence; the temporal relationship between media reporting volume and adverse health consequences has not been quantified nationally. We set out to explore whether we could find a quantitative relationship between media reports about prescription opioid abuse and overdose mortality associated with these drugs. We assessed whether increases in news media reports occurred before or after increases in overdose deaths. Methodology/Principal Findings: Our ecological study compared a monthly time series of unintentional poisoning deaths involving short-acting prescription opioid substances, from 1999 to 2005 using multiple cause-of-death data published by the National Center for Health Statistics, to monthly counts of English-language news articles mentioning generic and branded names of prescription opioids obtained from Google News Archives from 1999 to 2005. We estimated the association between media volume and mortality rates by time-lagged regression analyses. There were 24,272 articles and 30,916 deaths involving prescription opioids during the seven-year study period. Nationally, the number of articles mentioning prescription opioids increased dramatically starting in early 2001, following prominent coverage about the nonmedical use of OxyContin. We found a significant association between news reports and deaths, with media reporting preceding fatal opioid poisonings by two to six months and explaining 88% (p<0.0001, df 78) of the variation in mortality. Conclusions/Significance: While availability, structural, and individual predispositions are key factors influencing substance use, news reporting may enhance the popularity of psychoactive substances. Albeit ecological in nature, our finding suggests the need for further evaluation of the influence of news media on health. Reporting on prescription opioids conforms to historical patterns of news reporting on other psychoactive substances.

Background: COX-2 selective inhibitors are associated with myocardial infarction (MI). We sought to determine whether population health monitoring would have revealed the effect of COX-2 inhibitors on population-level patterns of MI. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted a retrospective study of inpatients at two Boston hospitals, from January 1997 to March 2006. There was a population-level rise in the rate of MI that reached 52.0 MI-related hospitalizations per 100,000 (a two standard deviation exceedence) in January of 2000, eight months after the introduction of rofecoxib and one year after celecoxib. The exceedence vanished within one month of the withdrawal of rofecoxib. Trends in inpatient stay due to MI were tightly coupled to the rise and fall of prescriptions of COX-2 inhibitors, with an 18.5% increase in inpatient stays for MI when both rofecoxib and celecoxib were on the market (P<0.001). For every million prescriptions of rofecoxib and celecoxib, there was a 0.5% increase in MI (95%CI 0.1 to 0.9) explaining 50.3% of the deviance in yearly variation of MI-related hospitalizations. There was a negative association between mean age at MI and volume of prescriptions for celecoxib and rofecoxib (Spearman correlation, −0.67, P<0.05). Conclusions/Significance: The strong relationship between prescribing and outcome time series supports a population-level impact of COX-2 inhibitors on MI incidence. Further, mean age at MI appears to have been lowered by use of these medications. Use of a population monitoring approach as an adjunct to pharmacovigilence methods might have helped confirm the suspected association, providing earlier support for the market withdrawal of rofecoxib.

Background: Personally controlled health records (PCHRs) are accessible over the Internet and allow individuals to maintain and manage a secure copy of their medical data. These records provide a new opportunity to provide customized health recommendations to individuals based on their record content. Health promotion programs using PCHRs can potentially be used in a variety of settings and target a large range of health issues. Objectives: The aim was to assess the value of a PCHR in an employee health promotion program for improving knowledge, beliefs, and behavior around influenza prevention. Methods: We evaluated a PCHR-based employee health promotion program using a randomized controlled trial design. Employees at Hewlett Packard work sites who reported reliable Internet access and email use at least once every 2 days were recruited for participation. PCHRs were provided to all participants for survey administration, and tailored, targeted health messages on influenza illness and prevention were delivered to participants in the intervention group. Participants in the control group received messages addressing cardiovascular health and sun protection. The main outcome measure was improvement in knowledge, beliefs, and behavior around influenza prevention. Secondary outcomes were influenza vaccine rates among household members, the impact of cardiovascular health and sun protection messages on the control group, and the usability and utility of the PCHR-based program for employees. Results: The intervention did not have a statistically significant effect on the influenza knowledge elements we assessed but did impact certain beliefs surrounding influenza. Participants in the intervention group were more likely to believe that the influenza vaccine was effective (OR = 5.6; 95% CI = 1.7-18.5), that there were actions they could take to prevent the flu (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.1-9.2), and that the influenza vaccine was unlikely to cause a severe reaction (OR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.3-15.3). Immunization rates did not differ between the intervention and control groups. However, participants in the intervention group were more likely to stay home during an infectious respiratory illness compared with participants in the control group (39% [16/41] vs 14% [5/35], respectively; P = .02). The program also succeeded in improving recognition of the signs of heart attack and stroke among participants in the control group. Overall, 78% of participants rated the PCHR as “extremely/very” easy to use, and 73% responded that they would be “extremely/very” likely to participate again in a PCHR-based health promotion system such as this one. Conclusions: With a small sample size, this study identified a modest impact of a PCHR-based employee health program on influenza prevention and control. Employees found the PCHR acceptable and easy to use, suggesting that it should be explored as a common medium for health promotion in the workplace.

Background: Widespread availability of geographic information systems software has facilitated the use of disease mapping in academia, government and private sector. Maps that display the address of affected patients are often exchanged in public forums, and published in peer-reviewed journal articles. As previously reported, a search of figure legends in five major medical journals found 19 articles from 1994–2004 that identify over 19,000 patient addresses. In this report, a method is presented to evaluate whether patient privacy is being breached in the publication of low-resolution disease maps. Results: To demonstrate the effect, a hypothetical low-resolution map of geocoded patient addresses was created and the accuracy with which patient addresses can be resolved is described. Through georeferencing and unsupervised classification of the original image, the method precisely re-identified 26% (144/550) of the patient addresses from a presentation quality map and 79% (432/550) from a publication quality map. For the presentation quality map, 99.8% of the addresses were within 70 meters (approximately one city block length) of the predicted patient location, 51.6% of addresses were identified within five buildings, 70.7% within ten buildings and 93% within twenty buildings. For the publication quality map, all addresses were within 14 meters and 11 buildings of the predicted patient location. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that lowering the resolution of a map displaying geocoded patient addresses does not sufficiently protect patient addresses from re-identification. Guidelines to protect patient privacy, including those of medical journals, should reflect policies that ensure privacy protection when spatial data are displayed or published.

Background: For real time surveillance, detection of abnormal disease patterns is based on a difference between patterns observed, and those predicted by models of historical data. The usefulness of outbreak detection strategies depends on their specificity; the false alarm rate affects the interpretation of alarms. Results: We evaluate the specificity of five traditional models: autoregressive, Serfling, trimmed seasonal, wavelet-based, and generalized linear. We apply each to 12 years of emergency department visits for respiratory infection syndromes at a pediatric hospital, finding that the specificity of the five models was almost always a non-constant function of the day of the week, month, and year of the study (p < 0.05). We develop an outbreak detection method, called the expectation-variance model, based on generalized additive modeling to achieve a constant specificity by accounting for not only the expected number of visits, but also the variance of the number of visits. The expectation-variance model achieves constant specificity on all three time scales, as well as earlier detection and improved sensitivity compared to traditional methods in most circumstances. Conclusion: Modeling the variance of visit patterns enables real-time detection with known, constant specificity at all times. With constant specificity, public health practitioners can better interpret the alarms and better evaluate the cost-effectiveness of surveillance systems.