Person: Kobayashi, Lindsay
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Kobayashi
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Lindsay
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Kobayashi, Lindsay
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Publication The development and validation of an index to predict 10-year mortality risk in a longitudinal cohort of older English adults(Oxford University Press, 2016) Kobayashi, Lindsay; Jackson, Sarah E.; Lee, Sei J.; Wardle, Jane; Steptoe, AndrewAbstract Background: we aimed to develop and validate a population-representative 10-year mortality risk index for older adults in England. Methods: data were from 10,798 men and women aged 50 years and older in the population-based English Longitudinal Study of Ageing in 2002/03, randomly split into development (n = 5,377) and validation cohorts (n = 5,421). Participants were asked about their sociodemographics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and functional status in the home-based interviews. Variables that were independently associated with all-cause mortality through March 2013 in the development cohort were weighted relative to one another to develop risk point scores for the index that was calibrated in the validation cohort. Results: the validated 10-year mortality risk index assigns points for: increasing age (50–59 years: 0 points; 60–64: 1 point; 65–69: 3 points; 70–74: 5 points; 75–79: 7 points; 80–84: 9 points; ≥85: 12 points), male (2 points), no vigorous physical activity (1 point), smoking (2 points), having a diagnosis of cancer (1 point), chronic lung disease (2 points) or heart failure (4 points), and having difficulty preparing a hot meal (2 points), pushing or pulling large objects (1 point) or walking 100 yards (1 point). In the full study cohort, 10-year mortality rates increased from 1.7% (11/664) in those with 0 points to 95% (189/199) among those with ≥16 points. Conclusion: this highly predictive 10-item mortality risk index is valid in the English population aged 50 years and older. It uses simple information that is often available in research studies and patient reports, and does not require biomarker data to predict mortality.Publication Perceived Life Expectancy Is Associated with Colorectal Cancer Screening in England(Springer US, 2016) Kobayashi, Lindsay; von Wagner, Christian; Wardle, JaneBackground: Cancer screening is a behavior that represents investment in future health. Such investment may depend on how much ‘future’ a person expects. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the prospective association between perceived personal life expectancy and participation in fecal occult blood test screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in a national program. Methods: Data were from interviews with 3975 men and women in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) within the eligible age range for the national screening program (60 to 74 years). Perceived life expectancy was indexed as the individual’s estimate of their chance of living another 10–15 years (exact time varied by age), assessed in 2008/2009. Participation in CRC screening from 2010 to 2012/2013 was assessed in 2012/2013. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between perceived life expectancy and screening participation, adjusted for numeracy and known mortality risk factors. Results: Overall, 71% of respondents (2817/3975) reported completing at least one fecal occult blood test (FOBt) during the follow-up. Screening uptake was 76% (1272/1683) among those who estimated their 10–15-year life expectancy as 75–100%, compared with 52% (126/243) among those who estimated theirs as 0–25% (adjusted OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.29–2.34). Conclusions: A longer perceived life expectancy is associated with greater likelihood of participating in CRC screening in England. However, half of people with a low perceived life expectancy still participated in screening. Given that CRC screening is recommended for adults with a remaining life expectancy of ≥10 years, future research should investigate how to communicate the aims of screening more effectively.Publication General practitioner attitudes towards prescribing aspirin to carriers of Lynch Syndrome: findings from a national survey(Springer Netherlands, 2017) Smith, Samuel G.; Foy, Robbie; McGowan, Jennifer; Kobayashi, Lindsay; Burn, John; Brown, Karen; Side, Lucy; Cuzick, JackA dose non-inferiority study comparing 100 mg, 300 mg and 600 mg of aspirin for cancer prevention among Lynch Syndrome carriers is underway (Colorectal Adenoma/Carcinoma Prevention Programme trial 3, CaPP3). To guide implementation of the findings, we investigated general practitioner (GP) attitudes towards aspirin prescribing for Lynch Syndrome carriers. We surveyed 1007 UK GPs (9.6% response rate). Using a within-subjects design, GPs read a statement on harms and benefits of aspirin and indicated their willingness to prescribe aspirin at three doses (100 mg, 300 mg, 600 mg). Approximately two-thirds (70.8%) of GPs had heard of Lynch Syndrome or its associated names, and among those 46.7% were aware of the cancer preventive effects of aspirin among carriers. Two-thirds (68.1%) of GPs reported feeling comfortable discussing harms and benefits of aspirin with a Lynch Syndrome patient. Willingness to prescribe was 91.3% at 100 mg, and declined to 81.8% at 300 mg and 62.3% at 600 mg (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses, willingness to prescribe (600 mg) was higher among GPs ≥50 years (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03–2.07), more experienced GPs (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.10–2.04), GPs who were aware of the cancer preventive effects of aspirin (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.20–2.09), and those who reported seeing a Lynch Syndrome patient in practice (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.01–2.05, p = 0.045). GPs report limited awareness of Lynch Syndrome and the preventive effects of aspirin among carriers. To ensure the optimal dose identified in the CaPP3 trial is readily available to patients, prescribing guidance and strategies to educate GPs should be developed.