Person:

Sulprizio, Melissa

National parks in the United States are protected areas wherein the natural habitat is to be conserved for future generations. Deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) transported from areas of human activity (fuel combustion, agriculture) may affect these natural habitats if it exceeds an ecosystem-dependent critical load (CL). We quantify and interpret the deposition to Class I US national parks for present-day and future (2050) conditions using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution over North America. We estimate CL values in the range 2.5–5 kg N ha−1 yr−1 for the different parks to protect the most sensitive ecosystem receptors. For present-day conditions, we find 24 out of 45 parks to be in CL exceedance and 14 more to be marginally so. Many of these are in remote areas of the West. Most (40–85%) of the deposition originates from NOx emissions (fuel combustion). We project future changes in N deposition using representative concentration pathway (RCP) anthropogenic emission scenarios for 2050. These feature 52–73% declines in US NOx emissions relative to present but 19–50% increases in US ammonia (NH3) emissions. Nitrogen deposition at US national parks then becomes dominated by domestic NH3 emissions. While deposition decreases in the East relative to present, there is little progress in the West and increases in some regions. We find that 17–25 US national parks will have CL exceedances in 2050 based on the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Even in total absence of anthropogenic NOx emissions, 14–18 parks would still have a CL exceedance. Returning all parks to N deposition below CL by 2050 would require at least a 50% decrease in US anthropogenic NH3 emissions relative to RCP-projected 2050 levels.

Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) formed in the atmospheric oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) is the principal tropospheric reservoir for nitrogen oxide radicals ((NO_x = NO + NO_2)). PAN enables the transport and release of (NO_x) to the remote troposphere with major implications for the global distributions of ozone and OH, the main tropospheric oxidants. Simulation of PAN is a challenge for global models because of the dependence of PAN on vertical transport as well as complex and uncertain NMVOC sources and chemistry. Here we use an improved representation of NMVOCs in a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and show that it can simulate PAN observations from aircraft campaigns worldwide. The immediate carbonyl precursors for PAN formation include acetaldehyde (44% of the global source), methylglyoxal (30%), acetone (7%), and a suite of other isoprene and terpene oxidation products (19%). A diversity of NMVOC emissions is responsible for PAN formation globally including isoprene (37%) and alkanes (14%). Anthropogenic sources are dominant in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere outside the growing season. Open fires appear to play little role except at high northern latitudes in spring, although results are very sensitive to plume chemistry and plume rise. Lightning (NO_x) is the dominant contributor to the observed PAN maximum in the free troposphere over the South Atlantic.

The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM), used by a large atmospheric chemistry research community, has been re-engineered to also serve as an atmospheric chemistry module for Earth System Models (ESMs). This was done using an Earth System Modelling Framework (ESMF) interface that operates independently of the GEOS-Chem scientific code, permitting the exact same GEOS-Chem code to be used as an ESM module or as a stand-alone CTM. In this manner, the continual stream of updates contributed by the CTM user community is automatically passed on to the ESM module, which remains state-of-science and referenced to the latest version of the standard GEOS-Chem CTM. A major step in this re-engineering was to make GEOS-Chem grid-independent, i.e., capable of using any geophysical grid specified at run time. GEOS-Chem data "sockets" were also created for communication between modules and with external ESM code via the ESMF. The grid-independent, ESMF-compatible GEOS-Chem is now the standard version of the GEOS-Chem CTM. It has been implemented as an atmospheric chemistry module into the NASA GEOS-5 ESM. The coupled GEOS-5/GEOS-Chem system was tested for scalability and performance with a tropospheric oxidant-aerosol simulation (120 coupled species, 66 transported tracers) using 48–240 cores and MPI parallelization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the GEOS-Chem chemistry module scales efficiently for the number of processors tested. Although inclusion of atmospheric chemistry in ESMs is computationally expensive, the excellent scalability of the chemistry module means that the relative cost goes down with increasing number of MPI processes.

We apply a continental-scale inverse modeling system for North America based on the GEOS-Chem model to optimize California methane emissions at 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution using atmospheric observations from the CalNex aircraft campaign (May–June 2010) and from satellites. Inversion of the CalNex data yields a best estimate for total California methane emissions of 2.86 ± 0.21 Tg a−1, compared with 1.92 Tg a−1 in the EDGAR v4.2 emission inventory used as a priori and 1.51 Tg a−1 in the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventory used for state regulations of greenhouse gas emissions. These results are consistent with a previous Lagrangian inversion of the CalNex data. Our inversion provides 12 independent pieces of information to constrain the geographical distribution of emissions within California. Attribution to individual source types indicates dominant contributions to emissions from landfills/wastewater (1.1 Tg a−1), livestock (0.87 Tg a−1), and gas/oil (0.64 Tg a−1). EDGAR v4.2 underestimates emissions from livestock, while CARB underestimates emissions from landfills/wastewater and gas/oil. Current satellite observations from GOSAT can constrain methane emissions in the Los Angeles Basin but are too sparse to constrain emissions quantitatively elsewhere in California (they can still be qualitatively useful to diagnose inventory biases). Los Angeles Basin emissions derived from CalNex and GOSAT inversions are 0.42 ± 0.08 and 0.31 ± 0.08 Tg a−1 that the future TROPOMI satellite instrument (2015 launch) will be able to constrain California methane emissions at a detail comparable to the CalNex aircraft campaign. Geostationary satellite observations offer even greater potential for constraining methane emissions in the future.