Person: Lawrence, Robert
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Lawrence
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Lawrence, Robert
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Publication South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance & Trade Policy(Center for International Development at Harvard University, 2006-10) Edwards, Lawrence; Lawrence, RobertSouth African trade policy has exerted a major influence on the composition and aggregate growth of trade. In the Apartheid period, trade protection seriously impeded both exports and imports, and the economy depended on favorable global commodity price trends to avoid running into an external constraint. South Africa developed a comparative advantage in capital-intensive primary and manufactured commodities partly because of its natural resource endowments but also because the pattern of protection particularly detrimental to exports of non-commodity manufactured goods. High and opaque tariffs seriously impeded export growth. When global commodity markets were weak, in combination with declining gold exports, this seriously constrained aggregate growth and dulled the response of exports to the weaker rand in the late 1980s. On the other hand, surcharges were effective in reducing imports. By contrast, trade liberalization in the 1990s not only increased imports but, by reducing both input costs and the relative profitability of domestic sales, also boosted exports. The growth in non-commodity manufactured sectoral exports as a result of liberalization was actually faster than sectoral imports. This evidence suggests that additional trade liberalization could well be part of the strategy to enhance export diversification. It points to the importance of policies that afford South African firms with access to inputs at world prices as well as a competitive real exchange rate.Publication Examining Beneficiation(Center for International Development at Harvard University, 2008-05) Hausmann, Ricardo; Klinger, Bailey; Lawrence, RobertBeneficiation, moving downstream, and promoting greater value added in natural resources are very common policy initiatives to stimulate new export sectors in developing countries, largely based on the premise that this is a natural and logical path for structural transformation. But upon closer examination, we find that very few countries that export raw materials also export their processed forms, or transition to greater processing. The quantitative analysis finds that broad factor intensities do a much better job of identifying patterns of production and structural transformation than forward linkages, which have an insignificant impact despite the fact that our data is biased against finding significant effects of factor intensities and towards finding significant effects of forward linkages. Moreover, the explanatory power of forward linkages is even smaller in sectors with high transport costs, and in sectors classified as primary products or raw materials, which are the most common targets of such policies. Finally, the results are the same even when only considering developed countries, meaning that colonial legacy inhibiting transitions to natural resource processing are not to blame. These results suggest that policies to promote greater downstream processing as an export promotion policy are misguided. Structural transformation favors sectors with similar technological requirements, factor intensities, and other requisite capabilities, not products connected in production chains. There is no reason for countries like South Africa to focus attention on beneficiation at the expense of policies that would allow other export sectors to emerge. This makes no sense conceptually, and is completely inconsistent with international experience. Quite simply, beneficiation is a bad policy paradigm.Publication A Profile of the Health-Promoting Behaviors of Physicians and Lawyers(New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM/MMS), 1980) Wyshak, Grace; Lamb, George; Lawrence, Robert; Curran, WilliamThe federal government has increased its activities directed toward health promotion and disease prevention. We carried out a pilot survey of a random sample of Massachusetts physicians and lawyers to obtain a profile of the personal health-promoting behaviors in the two professional groups.Publication Implications of a Future Global Biofuels Market for Economic Development and International Trade(2007) Lee, Henry; Clark, William; Lawrence, Robert; Visconti, GloriaSummary report from a joint ENRP/Sustainablity Science Program workshop convening experts from academia, international institutions, government, and the private sector to explore possible implications of emerging global biofuels markets for economic development and international trade.Publication AGOA Rules: The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Special Fabric Provisions(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2011) Edwards, Lawrence; Lawrence, RobertLesotho and other least developed African countries responded impressively to the preferences they were granted under the African Growth and Opportunities Act with a rapid increase in their clothing exports to the US. But this performance has not been accompanied by some of the more dynamic growth benefits that might have been hoped for. In this study we develop the theory and present empirical evidence to demonstrate that these outcomes are the predictable consequences of the manner in which the specific preferences might be expected to work. The MFA (Multi-fiber Arrangement) quotas on US imports of textiles created a favorable environment for low value-added, fabric-intensive clothing production in countries with unused quotas by inducing constrained countries to move into higher quality products. By allowing the least developed African countries to use third country fabrics in their clothing exports to the US, AGOA provided additional implicit effective subsidies to clothing that were multiples of the US tariffs on clothing imports. Taken together, these policies help account for the program’s success and demonstrate the importance of other rules of origin in preventing poor countries from taking advantage of other preference programs. But the disappointments can also be attributed to the preferences because they discouraged additional value-addition in assembly and stimulated the use of expensive fabrics that were unlikely to be produced locally. When the MFA was removed, constrained countries such as China moved strongly into precisely the markets in which AGOA countries had specialized. Although AGOA helped the least developed countries withstand this shock, they were nonetheless adversely affected. Preference erosion due to MFN reductions in US clothing tariffs could similarly have particularly severe adverse effects on these countries.Publication How Good Politics Results in Bad Policy: The Case of Biofuel Mandates(John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010) Lawrence, RobertBiofuels have become big policy and big business. Government targets, mandates, and blending quotas have created a growing demand for biofuels. Some say that the U.S. biofuels industry was created by government policies. But recently, biofuels have become increasingly controversial. In this paper Lawrence argues that the growing list of concerns about the impact of biofuel targets and mandates—are the predictable result of a failure to follow the basic principles of good policy-making. Good policy-making requires developing a policy goal or target (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing oil consumption, or increasing rural economic development) and designing an instrument to efficiently meet that particular goal. The more precise the goal, the better. In addition, for each target, there should be at least one policy instrument. You cannot meet two goals with only one instrument. Lawrence argues that the current U.S. biofuels mandates do not represent the most efficient or precise instrument to meet any of the policy’s stated goals. While this paper argues against mandates, it should not be understood as an attack on all biofuels policies. Three are especially worthy of consideration. First, there are good reasons for the government to subsidize research on different alternative sources of energy such as biofuels. Second, there may be a role for government coordination and investment in biofuels infrastructure which are essentially public goods that private actors cannot undertake on their own. And third, there are also good reasons for removing the tariffs that are imposed by both the European Union and the United States on imported ethanol and biodiesel. These trade barriers not only reduce any potential environmental benefits that could be achieved from using these products, but also limit the development benefits than poor countries might enjoy from producing them.Publication Growth and Competitiveness in Kazakhstan: Issues and Priorities in the Areas of Macroeconomic, Industrial, Trade and Institutional Development Policies(Center for International Development at Harvard University, 2011) Hausmann, Ricardo; Deep, Akash; Di Tella, Rafael; Frankel, Jeffrey; Lawrence, Robert; Rodrik, Dani; Velasco, AndrésPublication How Good Politics Results in Bad Policy: The Case of Biofuel Mandates(Center for International Development at Harvard University, 2010-09) Lawrence, RobertBiofuels have become big policy and big business. Government targets, mandates, and blending quotas have created a growing demand for biofuels. Some say that the U.S. biofuels industry was created by government policies. But recently, biofuels have become increasingly controversial. In this paper Lawrence argues that the growing list of concerns about the impact of biofuel targets and mandates—are the predictable result of a failure to follow the basic principles of good policy-making. Good policy-making requires developing a policy goal or target (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing oil consumption, or increasing rural economic development) and designing an instrument to efficiently meet that particular goal. The more precise the goal, the better. In addition, for each target, there should be at least one policy instrument. You cannot meet two goals with only one instrument. Lawrence argues that the current U.S. biofuels mandates do not represent the most efficient or precise instrument to meet any of the policy’s stated goals. While this paper argues against mandates, it should not be understood as an attack on all biofuels policies. Three are especially worthy of consideration. First, there are good reasons for the government to subsidize research on different alternative sources of energy such as biofuels. Second, there may be a role for government coordination and investment in biofuels infrastructure which are essentially public goods that private actors cannot undertake on their own. And third, there are also good reasons for removing the tariffs that are imposed by both the European Union and the United States on imported ethanol and biodiesel. These trade barriers not only reduce any potential environmental benefits that could be achieved from using these products, but also limit the development benefits than poor countries might enjoy from producing them.Publication SACU Tariff Policies: Where Should They Go From Here?(Center for International Development at Harvard University, 2008-05) Edwards, Lawrence; Lawrence, RobertThis paper characterizes the current South African Customs Union (SACU) tariff structure, considers its rationale, proposes and evaluates some alternatives for reform. While considerable progress was made earlier in liberalizing and simplifying SACU’s tariff structure, over the past few years such movement appears to have halted. This is unfortunate because trade performance is a key constraint in attaining South Africa’s growth objectives. The tariff structure remains excessively complex and opaque and biased against exports. The differentiation provided to different sectors appears mainly to be the result of historical accident and is not justifiable as efficient job preservation, equitable income distribution or on infant industry grounds. Using simple tariff structures that have a zero and just one or two tariff bands we show that it is possible simultaneously to provide benefits to consumers, limit employment dislocation by conferring a reasonable degree of effective protection on finished goods, reduce export taxes, improve transparency and provide a norm against which industrial policy priorities can be set. The long run goal would be a globally competitive SACU region that provides producers with access to inputs at world prices. South Africa’s regional trade policies require attention. The African continent plays a key strategic role in South Africa’s export diversification strategy and regional development is a vital priority. The current SACU tariff sharing formula is expensive and defective. A major reform of SACU tariffs would make particular sense for the BLNS countries, allowing these nations access to cheaper inputs and final products. It would also provide the opportunity to renegotiate the SACU revenue-sharing formula, more clearly and rationally separating its aid and tariff-revenue sharing components. SACU should avoid unrealistic commitments to customs unions with other African partners. In its other regional arrangements (e.g. with SADC) SACU should place primary reliance on free trade agreements and other projects (e.g. infrastructure) that enhance integration