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Tedijanto, Christine

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Tedijanto

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Christine

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Tedijanto, Christine

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Author's Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.c99e53f3-54fa-4391-a9ff-a1f4ae090d19

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    Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic
    (2020-03) Kissler, Stephen; Tedijanto, Christine; Lipsitch, Marc; Grad, Yonatan
    The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is straining healthcare resources worldwide, prompting social distancing measures to reduce transmission intensity. The amount of social distancing needed to curb the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the context of seasonally varying transmission remains unclear. Using a mathematical model, we assessed that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022. Increasing critical care capacity could reduce the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic while ensuring that critically ill patients receive appropriate care.
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    Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period
    (2020-03-06) Kissler, Stephen; Tedijanto, Christine; Goldstein, Edward; Grad, Yonatan; Lipsitch, Marc
    There is an urgent need to project how transmission of the novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will unfold in coming years. These dynamics will depend on seasonality, the duration of immunity, and the strength of cross-immunity to/from the other human coronaviruses. Using data from the United States, we measured how these factors affect transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. We then built a mathematical model to simulate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the year 2025. We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave. We summarize the full range of plausible transmission scenarios and identify key data still needed to distinguish between them, most importantly longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.