Person: Rogoff, Kenneth
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Rogoff
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Rogoff, Kenneth
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Publication Costs and Benefits to Phasing Out Paper Currency(University of Chicago Press, 2014) Rogoff, KennethDespite advances in transactions technologies, paper currency still constitutes a notable percentage of the money supply in most countries. For example, it constitutes roughly 10% of the US Federal Reserve’s main monetary aggregate, M2. Yet, it has important drawbacks. First, it can help facilitate activity in the underground (tax-evading) and illegal economy. Second, its existence creates the artifact of the zero bound on the nominal interest rate. On the other hand, the enduring popularity of paper currency generates many benefits, including substantial seigniorage revenue. This paper explores some of the issues associated with phasing out paper currency, especially large-denomination notes.Publication Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development(Elsevier, 2009) Aghion, Philippe; Bacchetta, Philippe; Ranciere, Romain; Rogoff, KennethThis paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country’s level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83country data set spanning the years 1960-2000; our results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of financial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment effects of domestic credit market constraints. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.Publication Japan’s exorbitant privilege(Elsevier BV, 2015) Rogoff, Kenneth; Tashiro, TakeshiThe concept of "exorbitant privilege" has received great attention from policy makers as well as academics worldwide. The idea originally referred to the willingness of foreigners to hold large quantities of US government debt at extremely low interest rates, due to the dollar's world reserve currency status. In recent years, the term exorbitant privilege has been expanded to explain why the US appears to be enjoying excess return from its external assets over liabilities across all asset classes, including foreign direct investment, equities and other forms of portfolio investment. In this paper, we give a brief review of the recent literature on exorbitant privilege, and then proceed to discuss exorbitant privilege in the context of another country, Japan, which has been the world's largest creditor nation for more than two decades. In contrast to the common perception that Japan has been a particularly poor international investor, we find that Japan enjoys exorbitant privilege in both the broad and narrow sense. Japan also earns higher expected returns from maturity transformation. Thus although the dollar is the reserve currency, the yen also has enjoyed a safe haven effect in the recent period.Publication Dealing with debt(Elsevier BV, 2015) Reinhart, Carmen; Reinhart, Vincent; Rogoff, KennethThis paper explores the menu of options for renormalizing public debt levels relative to nominal activity in the long run, should governments eventually decide to do so. Although debt ratios may need to rise further in some cases, a vision of longer-term options is key to weighing alternative medium-term stabilization strategies. Orthodox ones, the standard fare of officialdom, include enhancing growth, running primary budget surpluses, and privatizing government assets. Heterodox polices include restructuring debt contracts, generating unexpected inflation, taxing wealth, and repressing private finance. Advanced countries have relied far more on heterodox approaches than many observers choose to remember.Publication The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?(MIT Press, 2000) Rogoff, Kenneth; Obstfeld, MauricePublication Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?(Oxford University Press (OUP), 2010) Rogoff, Kenneth; Chen, Yu-Chin; Rossi, BarbaraWe show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We o§er a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances.Publication Growth in a Time of Debt(American Economic Association, 2010) Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, KennethPublication The Aftermath of Financial Crises(American Economic Association, 2009) Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, KennethPublication Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison(American Economic Association, 2008) Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, KennethPublication Grants versus Loans for Development Banks(American Economic Association, 2005) Bulow, Jeremy; Rogoff, Kenneth
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