Person:

Najafzadeh, Mehdi

Background: The extent to which a genomic test will be used in practice is affected by factors such as ability of the test to correctly predict response to treatment (i.e. sensitivity and specificity of the test), invasiveness of the testing procedure, test cost, and the probability and severity of side effects associated with treatment. Methods: Using discrete choice experimentation (DCE), we elicited preferences of the public (Sample 1, N = 533 and Sample 2, N = 525) and cancer patients (Sample 3, N = 38) for different attributes of a hypothetical genomic test for guiding cancer treatment. Samples 1 and 3 considered the test/treatment in the context of an aggressive curable cancer (scenario A) while the scenario for sample 2 was based on a non-aggressive incurable cancer (scenario B). Results: In aggressive curable cancer (scenario A), everything else being equal, the odds ratio (OR) of choosing a test with 95% sensitivity was 1.41 (versus a test with 50% sensitivity) and willingness to pay (WTP) was $1331, on average, for this amount of improvement in test sensitivity. In this scenario, the OR of choosing a test with 95% specificity was 1.24 times that of a test with 50% specificity (WTP = $827). In non-aggressive incurable cancer (scenario B), the OR of choosing a test with 95% sensitivity was 1.65 (WTP = $1344), and the OR of choosing a test with 95% specificity was 1.50 (WTP = $1080). Reducing severity of treatment side effects from severe to mild was associated with large ORs in both scenarios (OR = 2.10 and 2.24 in scenario A and B, respectively). In contrast, patients had a very large preference for 95% sensitivity of the test (OR = 5.23). Conclusion: The type and prognosis of cancer affected preferences for genomically-guided treatment. In aggressive curable cancer, individuals emphasized more on the sensitivity rather than the specificity of the test. In contrast, for a non-aggressive incurable cancer, individuals put similar emphasis on sensitivity and specificity of the test. While the public expressed strong preference toward lowering severity of side effects, improving sensitivity of the test had by far the largest influence on patients’ decision to use genomic testing.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a growing economic burden worldwide. Smoking cessation is thought to be the single most effective way of reducing the economic burden of COPD. The impact of other strategies such as interventions that predict risk of disease, reduce progression of disease, or reduce exacerbations has not been systematically studied. Objectives: We estimated the economic and clinical burden of COPD over the next 25 years in Canada and the impact of three potential interventions (screening test for predisposition to COPD, new drugs to avoid progression into more severe disease stages, and predictive test for exacerbations) on COPD burden. Methods Using a dynamic simulation model, we projected the total burden of COPD (cost, morbidity, and mortality) from 2011 to 2035 using the population of Canada as a case study. The model stratified population based on sex, age, smoking status, respiratory symptoms, and their COPD stage. The cost and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with each intervention were estimated. Results: The model indicates that annual societal cost of COPD is $4.52 billion (B) Canadian dollars in 2011 and will reach $3.61B ($7.33B undiscounted) per year in 2035. Over the next 25 years, COPD will be responsible for approximately $101.4B in societal costs ($147.5B undiscounted) and 12.9 million QALYs lost (19.0 million undiscounted). Our results suggested that the best strategy to reduce the financial burden of COPD is by reducing exacerbations. Smoking cessation, while it is the cornerstone of COPD prevention, has only a modest effect in attenuating the financial burden of COPD over the next 25 years in Western countries such as Canada. Conclusion: Our data suggest that any intervention that can reduce the number of exacerbations has a substantial impact on morbidity and costs of COPD and should be considered in conjunction with the ongoing efforts to reduce smoking rates.

Background: The preferences of parents and children with asthma influence their ability to manage a child’s asthma and achieve good control. Potential differences between parents and adolescents with respect to specific parameters of asthma control are not considered in clinical asthma guidelines. The objective was to measure and compare the preferences of parents and adolescents with asthma with regard to asthma control parameters using best worst scaling (BWS). Methods: Fifty-two parents of children with asthma and 44 adolescents with asthma participated in a BWS study to quantify preferences regarding night-time symptoms, wheezing/chest tightening, changes in asthma medications, emergency visits and physical activity limitations. Conditional logit regression was used to determine each group’s utility for each level of each asthma control parameter. Results: Parents displayed the strongest positive preference for the absence of night-time symptoms (β = 2.09, p < 0.00001) and the strongest negative preference for 10 emergency room visits per year (β = −2.15, p < 0.00001). Adolescents displayed the strongest positive preference for the absence of physical activity limitations (β = 2.17, p < 0.00001) and the strongest negative preference for ten physical activity limitations per month (β = −1.97). Both groups were least concerned with changes to medications. Conclusion: Parents and adolescents placed different weights on the importance of asthma control parameters and each group displayed unique preferences. Understanding the relative importance placed on each parameter by parents and adolescents is essential for designing effective patient-focused disease management plans. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12890-015-0141-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: Recent studies have shown an increasing incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) infection, which may be related to the introduction of varicella vaccination programs in children. We examined the epidemiology and treatment costs of HZ and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) over time in British Columbia, Canada. Methods: The cohort consisted of all cases with HZ infection from January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2012. Incident zoster was defined as a case (ICD-9 053 or ICD-10 B02) without a previous episode of HZ or PHN in the previous 12 months. We determined the incidence for HZ and PHN and the age-sex standardized rate for the overall population. We determined the association between the varicella vaccination program and increased HZ rates by evaluating the rate ratios in the publicly-funded varicella vaccine period compared to the non-publicly funded period in a regression model. We evaluated the hospitalization rates, treatment by GPs and their associated yearly costs for HZ and PHN. Results: HZ incidence increased for the entire study period from 3.2 per 1000 population in 1997 to 4.5 in 2012. HZ rates were higher for females than males and all age groups had an increased incidence rate, except the 0–9 year olds, where the rate decreased. Crude and age-sex standardized incidence rates of PHN demonstrated very similar patterns to HZ incidence. Based on the regression model, rates of HZ were higher in the older individuals. No significant increase with HZ incidence was seen during the publically funded varicella vaccination program compared to the non-publicly funded period. From 1997 to 2012, the annual HZ-related costs associated with hospitalizations and GP visits were over $CDN4.9 million and $CDN537,286, respectively; treatment costs for hospitalizations have increased significantly over time. Majority of PHN-related cases are managed by GPs, with a steady increase over time in number of cases and associated annual costs. Conclusions: The incidence of zoster and PHN is increasing with time, particularly in the elderly population and the risk is greater in the over 65 year olds. Treatment costs for both HZ and PHN represent a significant burden on the Canadian healthcare system. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1898-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: The response to therapeutics varies widely in patients with depression and anxiety, making selection of an optimal treatment choice challenging. IDgenetix®, a novel pharmacogenomic test, has been shown to improve outcomes by predicting the likelihood of response to different psychotherapeutic medications. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of implementing a novel pharmacogenomic test (IDgenetix®) to guide treatment choices in patients with depression and/or anxiety compared with treatment as usual from the US societal perspective. Methods: We developed a discrete event simulation to compare clinical events, quality-adjusted life-years, and costs of the two treatment strategies. Target patients had a Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression Score ≥ 20 and/or a Hamilton Rating Scale for Anxiety score ≥ 18 at baseline. Remission, response, and no response were simulated based on the observed rates in the IDgenetix® randomized controlled trial. Quality-adjusted life-years and direct and indirect costs attributable to depression and anxiety were estimated and compared over a 3-year time horizon. We conducted extensive deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the results. Results: The model predicted cumulative remission rates of 78 and 66% in IDgenetix® and treatment as usual groups, respectively. Estimated discounted quality-adjusted life-years were 2.09 and 1.94 per patient for IDgenetix® and treatment as usual, respectively, which resulted in 0.15 incremental quality-adjusted life-years (95% credible interval 0.04–0.28). The total costs after accounting for a US$2000 test cost were US$14,124 for IDgenetix® compared with US$14,659 for treatment as usual, suggesting a US$535 (95% credible interval − 2902 to 1692) cost saving per patient in the IDgenetix® group. Incremental quality-adjusted life-year gain (0.49) and cost savings (US$6800) were substantially larger in patients with severe depression (Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score ≥ 25). Conclusion: Using the IDgenetix® test to guide the treatment of patients with depression and anxiety may be a dominant strategy, as it improves quality-adjusted life-years and decreases overall costs over a 3-year time horizon. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s40273-017-0587-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BACKGROUND: Patients, physicians, and other decision makers make implicit but inevitable trade-offs among risks and benefits of treatments. Many methods have been proposed to promote transparent and rigorous benefit-risk analysis (BRA). OBJECTIVE: To propose a framework for classifying BRA methods on the basis of key factors that matter most for patients by using a common mathematical notation and compare their results using a hypothetical example. METHODS: We classified the available BRA methods into three categories: 1) unweighted metrics, which use only probabilities of benefits and risks; 2) metrics that incorporate preference weights and that account for the impact and duration of benefits and risks; and 3) metrics that incorporate weights based on decision makers' opinions. We used two hypothetical antiplatelet drugs (a and b) to compare the BRA methods within our proposed framework. RESULTS: Unweighted metrics include the number needed to treat and the number needed to harm. Metrics that incorporate preference weights include those that use maximum acceptable risk, those that use relative-value-adjusted life-years, and those that use quality-adjusted life-years. Metrics that use decision makers' weights include the multicriteria decision analysis, the benefit-less-risk analysis, Boers' 3 by 3 table, the Gail/NCI method, and the transparent uniform risk benefit overview. Most BRA methods can be derived as a special case of a generalized formula in which some are mathematically identical. Numerical comparison of methods highlights potential differences in BRA results and their interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed framework provides a unified, patient-centered approach to BRA methods classification based on the types of weights that are used across existing methods, a key differentiating feature.