Person:

Shen, Lulu

Abstract We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one‐half cycle (~35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1–4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3–1.0 μg m−3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long‐term air quality planning.

Abstract We investigate the effect of El Niño on maximum daily 8 h average surface ozone over the eastern United States in summer during 1980–2016. El Niño can influence the extratropical climate through the propagation of stationary waves, leading to (1) reduced transport of moist, clean air into the middle and southern Atlantic states and greater subsidence, reduced precipitation, and increased surface solar radiation in this region, as well as (2) intensified southerly flow into the south central states, which here enhances flux of moist and clean air. As a result, each standard deviation increase in the Niño 1 + 2 index is associated with an increase of 1–2 ppbv ozone in the Atlantic states and a decrease of 0.5–2 ppbv ozone in the south central states. These influences can be predicted 4 months in advance. We show that U.S. summertime ozone responds differently to eastern‐type El Niño events compared to central‐type events.