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Taylor, Aimee

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Taylor

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Aimee

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Taylor, Aimee
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    Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases
    (2020-02-05) Martinez de Salazar Munoz, Pablo; Niehus, Rene; Taylor, Aimee; Buckee, Caroline; Lipsitch, Marc
    Cases from the ongoing outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exported from mainland China can lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other populations. Internationally imported cases are currently being reported in several different locations. Early detection of imported cases is critical for containment of the virus. Based on air travel volume estimates from Wuhan to international destinations and using a generalized linear regression model we identify locations which may potentially have undetected internationally imported cases.
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    hmmIBD: software to infer pairwise identity by descent between haploid genotypes
    (BioMed Central, 2018) Schaffner, Stephen; Taylor, Aimee; Wong, Wesley; Wirth, Dyann; Neafsey, Daniel
    Background: A number of recent malaria studies have used identity by descent (IBD) to study epidemiological processes relevant to malaria control. In this paper, a software package, hmmIBD, is introduced for estimating pairwise IBD between haploid genomes, such as those of the malaria parasite, sampled from one or two populations. Source code is freely available. Methods: The performance of hmmIBD was verified using simulated data and benchmarked against an existing method for detecting IBD within populations. Code for all tests is freely available. The utility of hmmIBD for detecting IBD across populations was demonstrated using Plasmodium falciparum data from Cambodia and Ghana. Results: Alongside an existing method, hmmIBD was highly accurate, sensitive and specific. It is fast, requiring only 70 s on average to analyse 50 whole genome sequences on a laptop computer, and scales linearly in the number of pairwise comparisons. Treatment of different populations under hmmIBD improves detection of IBD across populations. Conclusion: Fast and accurate software for detecting IBD in malaria parasite genetic data sampled from one or two populations is presented. The latter will likely be a useful feature for malaria elimination efforts, since it could facilitate identification of imported malaria cases. Software is robust to possible misspecification of the genotyping error and the recombination rate. However, exclusion of data in regions whose rates vary greatly from their genome-wide average is recommended. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2349-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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    Quantifying connectivity between local Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite populations using identity by descent
    (Public Library of Science, 2017) Taylor, Aimee; Schaffner, Stephen F.; Cerqueira, Gustavo C.; Nkhoma, Standwell C.; Anderson, Timothy J. C.; Sriprawat, Kanlaya; Pyae Phyo, Aung; Nosten, FranƧois; Neafsey, Daniel; Buckee, Caroline
    With the rapidly increasing abundance and accessibility of genomic data, there is a growing interest in using population genetic approaches to characterize fine-scale dispersal of organisms, providing insight into biological processes across a broad range of fields including ecology, evolution and epidemiology. For sexually recombining haploid organisms such as the human malaria parasite P. falciparum, however, there have been no systematic assessments of the type of data and methods required to resolve fine scale connectivity. This analytical gap hinders the use of genomics for understanding local transmission patterns, a crucial goal for policy makers charged with eliminating this important human pathogen. Here we use data collected from four clinics with a catchment area spanning approximately 120 km of the Thai-Myanmar border to compare the ability of divergence (FST) and relatedness based on identity by descent (IBD) to resolve spatial connectivity between malaria parasites collected from proximal clinics. We found no relationship between inter-clinic distance and FST, likely due to sampling of highly related parasites within clinics, but a significant decline in IBD-based relatedness with increasing inter-clinic distance. This association was contingent upon the data set type and size. We estimated that approximately 147 single-infection whole genome sequenced parasite samples or 222 single-infection parasite samples genotyped at 93 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were sufficient to recover a robust spatial trend estimate at this scale. In summary, surveillance efforts cannot rely on classical measures of genetic divergence to measure P. falciparum transmission on a local scale. Given adequate sampling, IBD-based relatedness provides a useful alternative, and robust trends can be obtained from parasite samples genotyped at approximately 100 SNPs.
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    Quantifying bias of COVID-19 prevalence and severity estimates in Wuhan, China that depend on reported cases in international travelers
    (2020-02-14) Niehus, Rene; Martinez de Salazar Munoz, Pablo; Taylor, Aimee; Lipsitch, Marc
    Risk of COVID-19 infection in Wuhan has been estimated using imported case counts of international travelers, often under the assumption that all cases in travelers are ascertained. Recent work indicates variation among countries in detection capacity for imported cases. Singapore has historically had very strong epidemiological surveillance and contact-tracing capacity and has shown in the COVID-19 epidemic evidence of a high sensitivity of case detection. We therefore used a Bayesian modeling approach to estimate the relative imported case detection capacity for other countries compared to that of Singapore. We estimate that the global ability to detect imported cases is 38% (95% HPDI 22% - 64%) of Singaporeā€²s capacity. Equivalently, an estimate of 2.8 (95% HPDI 1.5 - 4.4) times the current number of imported cases, could have been detected, if all countries had had the same detection capacity as Singapore. Using the second component of the Global Health Security index to stratify likely case-detection capacities, we found that the ability to detect imported cases relative to Singapore among high surveillance locations is 40% (95% HPDI 22% - 67%), among intermediate surveillance locations it is 37% (95% HPDI 18% - 68%), and among low surveillance locations it is 11% (95% HPDI 0% - 42%). Using a simple mathematical model, we further find that treating all travelers as if they were residents (rather than accounting for the brief stay of some of these travelers in Wuhan) can modestly contribute to underestimation of prevalence as well. We conclude that estimates of case counts in Wuhan based on assumptions of perfect detection in travelers may be underestimated by several fold, and severity correspondingly overestimated by several fold. Undetected cases are likely in countries around the world, with greater risk in countries of low detection capacity and high connectivity to the epicenter of the outbreak.